By Al Root
Boeing is approaching a solemn anniversary: It has been almost one year since the fatal Air India Flight 171.
On June 12, 2025, a Boeing 787 crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, India, killing 229 passengers, 12 crew, and 19 people on the ground.
The crash's anniversary signals the imminent arrival of the full accident investigation report from India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau. The preliminary report didn't contain any recommendations for Boeing, which essentially shifted responsibility away from the plane and toward pilot error.
The final report will likely reiterate and expand on the existing findings. Still, investors shouldn't assume there will be no surprises in the coming report, and they should be ready for what they may learn.
The preliminary report, released on July 12, indicated that two fuel cutoff switches transitioned from "RUN" to "CUTOFF," according to the flight data recorder. One of the pilots was heard asking why the fuel supply had been cut off, and the other pilot responded that he hadn't done it. No fuel resulted in engine shutdown, causing a loss of power and lift.
But preliminary reports are brief, leaving room for speculation.
"The preliminary report is, in my view, very carefully worded," says Safety Matters Foundation Amit Singh, a nongovernmental organization dedicated to aviation safety. He wants more details on the fuel switches and believes an on-board electrical failure could cause the system to believe the switches were toggled to "CUTOFF."
Boeing declined to comment on the Safety Matters report, deferring to the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau. That isn't a surprise: Aerospace companies follow a strict set of rules around accidents, consistent with the U.N. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) protocol known as Annex 13.
The switches moved one second apart, according to the initial accident report. And then they were changed back to "RUN" nine or 10 seconds later. What's more, fuel switches have to be physically lifted over a gate to change positions.
To be sure, it's easier to posit electrical issues for the 787, which entered service in 2011. It pioneered innovations such as no-bleed engine technology, which uses electric generators to power air conditioning and anti-ice systems. Other jets use "bleed" air from the engines, which reduces fuel efficiency.
New systems typically get more scrutiny. What's more, the 787 has had some electrical issues early in the plane's life, including lithium-ion battery fires that prompted redesigns.
Still, before the Air India crash, the 787 had never experienced a hull loss -- an accident that resulted in the total loss of an aircraft. While official stats aren't available, the 787 has flown more than five million times, so the hull loss per million departures would be below 0.2, which is a better ratio than for the Airbus A350. The overall rate for modern aircraft is typically below one loss per million departures.
Not all hull losses result in fatalities, and of course, there are other accidents that don't result in a hull loss. In 2025, more than 37 million industry flights carrying some 4.5 billion passengers departed. The accident rate was about 2.56 for every million departures, or about one every 390,000 flights.
What the final report will say is impossible to predict. AeroDynamic Advisory managing director and aerospace consultant Richard Aboulafia doesn't expect materially different findings. Still, investors should be on the lookout for any recommendations regarding the maintenance and operation of Boeing's flagship 787 jet.
Boeing stock traded at about $204 before the accident, more than 50% below its all-time high of roughly $440 per share reached in early 2019. The company has been wading through design and quality issues for years, resulting in significant management turnover.
CEO Kelly Ortberg took over in 2024 to help lead the turnaround. Things have been looking up, with higher production and more stable financial results. Shares were trading above $250 before fighting broke out in Iran, pushing oil prices higher.
The Air India crash was an early test of Ortberg's leadership. The trial isn't over just yet.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 08, 2026 02:00 ET (06:00 GMT)
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