By Nate Wolf
Coinbase Global's rough start to 2026 could get even worse this summer, according to analysts at Baird Equity Research.
The firm reiterated a Neutral rating on Coinbase stock in a research note Friday but lowered its price target to $142 from $160. The crypto platform is a Baird "Bearish Fresh Pick" thanks to weak trading volumes that "could take a while to recover."
Coinbase shares fell 3.1% to $159.12 in premarket trading Friday. The stock, which is highly correlated with the price of Bitcoin, has declined 27% this year as crypto prices languish around their 52-week lows.
A company spokesperson didn't immediately respond to Barron's request for comment.
While Coinbase has diversified its business over the last five years, crypto trading remains its bread and butter, which is a problem when prices are low. Baird expects Coinbase's second-quarter revenue to miss Wall Street's consensus estimates by around 5% to 6% due to a continued slide in volume growth.
"While the first few days of June showed decent volume (closer to average levels of recent years), we think it's due to significant trading out of Bitcoin, which may be followed by limited interest in trading," wrote analyst David J. Koning.
Baird sees trading volume taking time to recover. Crypto is contending with outperformance by the S&P 500, high consumer inflation and borrowing prices, and an abundance of interesting and volatile alternatives in the stock market -- from artificial-intelligence names to initial public offerings.
The Clarity Act, a market-structure bill that some crypto bulls say could unleash the asset class, also looks increasingly unlikely to pass this year, Baird said. Congress has limited time to work out disagreements before the monthlong end-of-summer recess and the heart of mid-term election season.
Traders on prediction-market platform Polymarket give the bill a 57% chance of being signed into law this year, down from 65% a month ago.
Baird remains in the minority on Wall Street. Of the 39 analysts tracked by FactSet, 64% have a Buy rating on the stock. The average price target sits at $231.
Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 05, 2026 09:18 ET (13:18 GMT)
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