By Paul Hannon
Global flows of goods across borders continue to show resilience despite the uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East, according to a leading indicator compiled by the World Trade Organization.
The Geneva-based body that mediates trade disputes Friday said its Trade Barometer fell to 101.7 in June from 102.3 in January. A reading above 100 indicates exports and imports are rising at a faster pace than the average rate recorded over recent decades.
The slight decline indicates that while the pace of trade growth is expected to moderate over coming months, it is set to remain above the average rate recorded over recent decades.
"Global merchandise trade appears to have remained resilient despite headwinds from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which seem to have been partly offset by rising demand for electronic components related to investment in artificial intelligence," the WTO said.
World trade flows continued to increase at a rapid pace in the first three months of the year, boosted by the boom in artificial intelligence-related investment.
That followed a strong pickup in volumes during 2025, which was a surprise given the sharp rise in U.S. tariffs.
In forecasts released shortly after the first U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, the WTO projected that the increase in trade flows would slow to 2.5% this year from 4.6% in 2025.
But it warned growth could weaken to just 1.4% if disruptions to transport through the Strait of Hormuz continued and prices of both crude oil and liquefied natural gas remained high throughout 2026.
The WTO said the boom in AI investment could help cushion the blow, adding half of a percentage point to trade growth this year if it proved stronger than expected.
The leading indicator is a composite of measures that track air and sea freight, export orders as reported in surveys of purchasing managers, separate gauges of activity in the automobile and electronics sectors, and trade in agricultural raw materials such as wood.
The WTO said that all of those components were around their trend levels, except for the measure for electronic components, which "has risen firmly above trend."
The impact of the AI boom has been seen most strongly in exports from a number of Asian economies, including South Korea, Taiwan, China and Japan.
For economies not participating in the boom, trade flows were weak in the first quarter. The eurozone saw a decline in exports, while Latin America recorded a slight increase.
The disruption caused by the war had already taken a toll, with exports from Africa and the Middle East down sharply from the previous quarter.
Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 05, 2026 08:43 ET (12:43 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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