The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1213 ET - Oil prices are lower as a tentative ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon lifts hopes for U.S.-Iran negotiations. "These on-again, off-again developments keep the market on edge," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. "Geopolitical risk is still the dominant driver, but any sign of de-escalation brings quick selling pressure as traders take profits." Even if a framework for a deal is reached that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, "analysts (including myself) caution that full normalization of flows could take months due to logistical, de-mining, and verification hurdles," Flynn adds. WTI is off 3.1% at $93.04 and Brent is down 2.8% at $95.08. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1211 ET - U.S. tariff uncertainty continues to distort and tighten the global copper market, according to market watchers. Washington is expected to decide whether to extend import tariffs to refined copper, a move that could have significant implications for global supply flows. Last year, expectations of tariffs drove LME copper prices higher as U.S. buyers accelerated purchases and built inventories ahead of potential trade restrictions, reducing available supply elsewhere. "The upcoming U.S. Commerce Department report, due by the end of June, represents a potentially important catalyst," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "A recommendation supporting future tariffs could encourage further inventory accumulation ahead of implementation, while a decision not to proceed could trigger an unwinding of the current premium and some temporary pressure on prices." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1154 ET - Copper prices rise in afternoon trading, with three-month futures on the LME up 1.1% to $13,941.50 a metric ton. Supply risks have intensified following the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting copper supply chains through sulphur and sulphuric acid markets. China's restrictions on acid exports have added further pressure. Meanwhile, U.S. stockpiling has left inventories on the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange relatively depleted, reinforcing perceptions of scarcity in Europe and Asia. "This runs the risk that the current price signals overstate underlying physical scarcity outside the U.S.," analysts at ANZ say. The firm expects copper to remain above $13,500 a ton this year and approach $14,000 by year-end. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1134 ET - Gold prices extend gains, supported by a slight retreat in the U.S. dollar and falling crude as traders hope the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon could remove an obstacle in U.S.-Iran talks. New York gold futures are up 0.7% to $4,500.60 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index falls 0.2% to 99.35, and Brent and WTI are down 3%. Traders are closely watching the latest U.S. data and cues for the Federal Reserve's next move, fearing higher interest rates for longer or even a potential hike, which would weigh on non-yielding bullion. However, "for now, hikes are still not a foregone conclusion," says Stephen Brown from Capital Economics. "The May employment report tomorrow could yet change the narrative." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1115 ET - The weather outlook for U.S. crop-growing areas remains the chief focus for grain traders - which is why corn and soybeans are down in morning trade Thursday. "A warm and wet pattern will dominate through the middle of this month to get the 2026 U.S. crop off to a strong start," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Today's map from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that extreme drought conditions have eased in the western plains, but dryness has popped up in states that have been well-watered so far this year - states including Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Most-active CBOT corn is down 1.9%, soybeans fall 2%, and wheat is down 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1108 ET - Coffee prices slide largely because of ongoing expectations for a large Brazilian harvest, Rabobank's Carlos Mera says. Brazil is on track for its best harvest in six seasons, while output from Vietnam also jumped. Coffee prices continue to trade well above historic averages and the cost of production, the analyst notes. Though an El Nino looks almost certain this year, it's too early to predict the weather system's impact on coffee supply, Mera says. Arabica trades at $3,381 a metric ton, close to a two-year low and down 10% from May's high. New York Robusta coffee contracts are down over 18% from last month's high at $2.49 a pound. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
1055 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories increased by less than usual and less than expected last week, according to data released by the EIA. Natural gas in underground storage was up by 95 billion cubic feet at 2,578 Bcf, reducing the surplus over the five-year average to 138 Bcf from 144 Bcf the week before. The net injection was smaller than the 2021-2025 average for the week of 101 Bcf, and below the 105 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. The build put stocks 3 Bcf below their year-earlier level. Nymex natural gas futures are up 3.4% at $3.324/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1038 ET - California's high utility-scale battery storage capacity is limiting the state's call on natural-gas fired electricity to meet demand when solar generation falls off, East Daley Analytics says in a note. "California's battery component is proving particularly effective at displacing gas load," the energy intelligence firm says. "Early trends in the 2026 summer suggest the transition to solar and batteries continues to eat away at gas use." Although battery storage initially manages the evening rise in electricity demand, gas-fired generation remains critical to maintain reliability after battery discharge tapers later in the night, East Daley adds. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1007 ET - The USDA confirmed overnight that a case of New World Screwworm was found in a calf in southern Texas, after cases in previous days were reported close to the U.S.-Mexico border. Live cattle futures are up, with traders seemingly opting to buy the dip seen in recent days instead of selling on the news of NWS confirmation. "Traders bought the lower open after the knee-jerk response," says Brian Grete of Commstock Investments. "Some long liquidation had already occurred ahead of the screwworm confirmation." While investors were prepared for this, Grete adds that what happens with futures in the coming days will shape the storyline around the struggle against NWS. Live cattle is up 1.6%, and lean hogs fall 0.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0930 ET - Crude futures return yesterday's gains as a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is seen possibly removing an obstacle in U.S.-Iran talks, although the agreement still needs Iran-backed Hezbollah to sign on. "We have seen many rounds of calm in the past that ended with a return to escalation," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. Meanwhile, Iran continues to contradict U.S. assertions of progress toward a deal, he says. "Unless we receive a signed, written, and binding agreement, we should expect ongoing escalation that will maintain the strait's closure and drive oil prices higher. "WTI is down 3.1% at $93.01 a barrel and Brent is off 2.6% at $95.26. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0910 ET - U.S. natural gas futures gain in early trading with warmer weather forecasts lifting demand expectations for coming weeks. "The first test could come tomorrow and into the weekend where the northeast will see the mercury climb through 90 again," Tradition Energy's Gary Cunningham says in a note. The coming heat is expected to add to power-sector gas demand "and firm up the fundamentals for the remainder of summer," he adds. Storage data for last week due at 10:30 a.m. ET are expected to show an injection of 105 Bcf, slightly larger than the five-year average, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. Nymex natural gas is up 1.8% at $3.273/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0442 ET - China Mengniu Dairy's revenue outlook looks positive, Steven Nie of Daiwa says in a research note. The analyst reckons Mengniu's liquid milk revenue continued to rise in April, estimating about 3% on-year growth. For 2026, he expects channel expansion to spur sales volume growth of 6%, a rebound from last year's 8% drop. Risks to the outlook include a weaker-than-expected recovery in downstream demand, he says. Daiwa keeps a buy rating on the stock but lowers the target price to HK$21.50 from HK$22.00 on a sector derating. Shares close at HK$16.96. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 04, 2026 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)
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