Rupiah May Reach Rp19,000 per USD by End of June, Says Analyst

Tempo06-07

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – The Indonesian rupiah could weaken further to Rp19,000 per U.S. dollar by the end of June amid escalating geopolitical tensions and the prospect of prolonged high interest rates in...

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He said the situation intensified after U.S. strikes targeted several Iranian radar installations near the Strait of Hormuz, including sites on Qeshm Island.He also expressed doubts about the durability of any ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, arguing that recent developments indicate the risk of a broader regional conflict remains high.\"The possibility of a larger war remains open if tensions continue to escalate,\" he said.Ibrahim also highlighted political developments in the United States, noting that congressional efforts to limit military spending and involvement in overseas conflicts have not necessarily translated into changes in executive policy.\"The congressional position has not prevented President Donald Trump from continuing military actions against Iran,\" he said.The third key factor, he said, is monetary policy. Ibrahim expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated and potentially raise them by 25 basis points in the third quarter of 2026.Higher U.S. interest rates typically strengthen the dollar by attracting global capital flows into dollar-denominated assets, while putting pressure on emerging-market currencies and commodity prices.Ibrahim argued that weaker precious-metal prices could encourage investors and households to shift funds into U.S. dollars, further supporting the greenback and adding pressure on the rupiah.Looking ahead, he warned that the rupiah could weaken as far as Rp25,000 per U.S. dollar by the end of the year if the conflict in the Middle East persists.\"If the war continues through the end of the year, the rupiah could reach Rp25,000 per U.S. dollar. Improvements may only come in 2027 once the conflict subsides,\" he said.Read: Indonesia Shares Stabilization Strategies as Rupiah Slides Past 18,000Click here to get the latest news updates from Tempo on Google News","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2641176263","isCrawlerRequest":true}