S&P 500 companies can't stop talking about higher oil prices. But few say they'll actually hit profits.

MW S&P 500 companies can't stop talking about higher oil prices. But few say they'll actually hit profits.

By Bill Peters

Only seven companies cited oil prices as a reason for cutting or not updating their profit outlooks for the year

The word "oil" came up on 149 earnings calls held by S&P 500 companies from March 15 through June 5, according to FactSet.

Listen to a few earnings calls this season, and you'll get the sense that CEOs are worried about high oil prices as the Iran war continues. But a look at the numbers shows those anxieties haven't had much of an impact yet on their profit expectations for this year.

The word "oil" came up on 149 earnings calls held by S&P 500 SPX companies from March 15 through June 5, according to a FactSet analysis of call transcripts. That's the highest number since the round of earnings calls held for the first quarter of 2020, when the COVID pandemic raised concerns from investors about a massive oil surplus.

The FactSet report noted, however, that only a few of those companies that talked about rising oil prices (CL00) (BRN00) actually ended up cutting their profit forecasts for this year.

Of those 149 companies, 86 offered a full-year earnings-per-share outlook, the report said. Thirty-eight kept their profit outlooks intact, while 34 raised them. Only nine cut them, three issued new guidance and two declined to update previous forecasts.

Either way, in total, only seven of those companies directly cited oil prices as a reason for cutting or not updating their yearly earnings-per-share outlook, the FactSet report said. Four of those seven were airlines or cruise-ship operators, which use up a lot of fuel.

One of those was cruise-ship operator Carnival $(CCL)$, which cut its profit outlook but nonetheless said that travel demand was still strong.

"Given the recent spike and volatility in fuel prices, we believe it is reasonable to assume some moderation over the balance of the year, rather than base our guidance on current elevated spot prices," Carnival CFO David Bernstein said on the company's earnings call.

United Airlines $(UAL)$, which lowered its full-year outlook in April, said it was trying to offer forecasts that "encompass multiple scenarios," as oil and gas prices remain volatile amid negotiations to end the fighting in the Middle East.

Wall Street has been concerned that higher gas prices due to the war might harm consumer demand and push prices higher for other things that require oil. Those higher prices have followed disruptions from tariffs last year, among other price shocks over this decade, that have prompted companies to more closely manage their production footprints and their costs.

While the most recent outlook from big retailers like Walmart $(WMT)$ and Target (TGT) suggested greater consumer caution, some analysts have said it's remarkable that quarterly results - for retailers and others - haven't been worse.

Big Tech continues to lift profit margins for the S&P 500 overall - but the other industries have also helped drive the biggest earnings-per-share gains for the index since 2021.

Wall Street largely expects those trends to continue into the second quarter: According to the FactSet report, analysts see earnings across the S&P 500 growing 21.7%. That would be the second consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 20% for the index.

-Bill Peters

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June 07, 2026 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)

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