AutoZone (AZO) Valuation Check After Q3 2026 Beat And Supply Chain Expansion

Simply Wall St.00:17

AutoZone (AZO) is back in focus after its Q3 2026 report showed higher sales, net income and earnings per share versus a year ago, along with fresh supply chain investments and new mega hub openings. ...

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See our latest analysis for AutoZone. AutoZone's share price has been under pressure, with a 30 day share price return down 10.86% and a 90 day share price return down 15.15%. However, recent Q3 results, capital spending and buybacks have kept longer term total shareholder returns positive over 3 and 5 years. If AutoZone's recent moves have you reassessing opportunities in retail and automation, this could be a good time to scan the market for 33 robotics and automation stocks. So with the stock down over the past year but trading at a roughly 16% discount to an estimated intrinsic value and about 26% below analyst price targets, is AutoZone now undervalued, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementPrice-to-Earnings of 20.6x: Is it justified? On simple earnings terms, AutoZone trades on a P/E of 20.6x, which sits slightly below its peer group but a touch above the broader US specialty retail industry. The P/E multiple compares the current share price with earnings per share, so it effectively reflects what investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of AutoZone's earnings. For a business focused on auto parts retail and distribution, this ratio helps you weigh current profitability against expectations for future profit growth. AutoZone's P/E of 20.6x is described as good value versus its direct peers at 23.1x, which hints that the stock is priced more conservatively than similar companies. However, compared with the wider US specialty retail industry at 20.3x, and an estimated fair P/E of 20.4x, the valuation looks only marginally richer than what a broad market or model driven view might suggest as a steady state level. Result: Price-to-Earnings of 20.6x (ABOUT RIGHT) Explore the SWS fair ratio for AutoZone However, there are still clear pressure points, including the share price decline over the past year and any shift in demand for automotive parts across its core markets. Find out about the key risks to this AutoZone narrative. Another View: Cash Flows Point To More Upside While the P/E of 20.6x suggests AutoZone is priced roughly in line with a fair ratio, the SWS DCF model presents a different perspective. On that view, the stock at $3,116.43 is trading about 15.6% below an estimated future cash flow value of $3,691.69. This raises a key question: are earnings multiples missing part of the picture? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. AZO Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out AutoZone for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 49 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps With mixed signals on price, earnings and cash flow, the real question is how you read the risk reward trade off for yourself. Consider your options while the details are fresh and review the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs Looking for more investment ideas? Before moving on, take a moment to widen your watchlist, because the right opportunities often show up when you least expect them.  Zero in on quality at a discount by scanning 49 high quality undervalued stocks, so you are not leaving potential value on the table. Strengthen your portfolio’s foundation with the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (46 results), and focus on companies that pair resilience with fundamentals. Get ahead of the crowd by checking the screener containing 21 high quality undiscovered gems, where strong metrics meet lower market attention.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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