If investors thought a new week would bring some calm after the storm, they should think again -- a fraying peace effort in Iran, a fading tech trade at home, and the prospect of Federal Reserve rate hikes tied to surprisingly strong jobs data are all plaguing the market.
Added to that list, of course, is the looming specter of the world's biggest ever IPO, expected on Friday via the debut of Elon Musk's SpaceX, midweek inflation figures, and a massive event from Apple later today that could cement new leadership in the global AI race.
All of this, of course, follows the biggest market selloff of the year on Friday, which drove an 1,100-points decline for the Nasdaq -- the biggest slump in chips stocks since the Covid-19 pandemic and the largest drop for the S&P 500 since last October.
Investors are hopeful for an early Monday rebound, but a reading of market volatility suggests traders are pricing in nearly 100 points swings for the S&P 500, a level that suggests the risks of big upside and downside moves throughout the session.
And with global oil prices surging more than 4% overnight, taking Brent crude north of $97 a barrel as Iran and Israel trading military strikes for the first time since the April cease-fire, tensions both at home and abroad remain high.
The S&P 500 is still sitting on a solid gain of around 8% for the year, with a 13% advance booked so far for the second quarter. But the cracks to the bull market narrative are starting to appear.
That means Wall Street's ability to navigate this week's tests -- from surging bond yields, higher oil prices, a hawkish Fed, and major questions about the fate of the AI and tech trade -- will go a long way toward deciding if it will be a bright summer for markets or months of gloom.
The SpaceX IPO Is Here. But Is It a Good Investment?
The SpaceX IPO is the biggest capital-markets event ever—a record $75 billion raise is targeted for a valuation of $1.8 trillion. Once trading begins, it will join the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days later, requiring passive buying of 10% to 15% of the shares, and massive retail participation.
The world’s dominant space company leveraged lower costs from reusable rockets to build Starlink, providing space-based broadband to 10 million customers. But it’s also the world’s most valuable money-losing company, competes with OpenAI and Anthropic, and trades at 40 times estimated 2026 sales.
Its Starship reusable rocket is the key to SpaceX’s future, lowering costs to reach orbit by 90% compared with its Falcon 9 rocket, which had already slashed costs. But its most profitable unit is Starlink, where a 60% margin beats the 38% generated by telecoms like AT&T and Verizon.
SpaceX’s artificial-intelligence business was grafted onto the company when it purchased xAI for $250 billion in February. It generated an operating loss of $6.4 billion in 2025 and a first-quarter loss of $2.5 billion. xAI spent $12.7 billion in 2025, while AI spending hit $7.7 billion in the first quarter.
The losses should be mitigated by selling computing power to Anthropic and Google for $1.25 billion and $920 million a month, respectively. Others seeking computing power could turn to SpaceX, too. Morningstar recently valued SpaceX for about $780 billion, which includes just $170 billion for AI.
What’s Next: New York University professor and valuation maven Aswath Damodaran values SpaceX at about $1.3 trillion, or $99 a share. This assumes $420 billion in 2036 revenue, including $40 billion from space, $120 billion from Starlink, $160 billion from AI, and $100 billion from “other” opportunities.
WWDC Is Apple’s Second Chance to Set Record on AI Plans
Apple has reached a turning point. When CEO Tim Cook speaks at its Worldwide Developers Conference later today, it will likely be his last major public act as CEO, and he would sure like to go out with a bang. It’ll be Apple’s second attempt at announcing its AI plans.
The company first rolled out Apple Intelligence at 2024’s WWDC, when Wall Street expected a massive iPhone upgrade cycle. Instead, Apple’s AI products have disappointed consumers, and the launch of a highly anticipated AI-powered Siri chatbot has been delayed until the fall.
Now, Apple is expected to show off a revamped Siri along with some other AI updates. UBS analyst David Vogt expects Apple to present an AI-powered Siri that will be able to understand personal data and analyze on-screen content. He also expects Apple to launch an independent Siri app.
This WWDC holds emotional weight. Cook is stepping down from his role in September, and incoming CEO John Ternus is expected to lead the announcement of the next iPhone that month. Revenue during Cook’s tenure rose 293%, and its market value has increased $4.2 trillion.
Cook has to emphasize they aren’t behind in AI, and that they have a strategy, Gabelli Funds’ John Belton says. “And I think if that vision is shared by Tim Cook, then he’ll be leaving at a time when he has sort of set the company up for the next era,” he told Barron’s.
What’s Next: Even if Apple nails the presentation, don’t expect Apple stock to get a near-term boost. Over the past decade, shares have declined slightly on the day of the WWDC keynote, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Three months later, they’re up an average of nearly 14%.
Iran War’s Next 100 Days Could Be More Fraught
The Middle East ceasefire was under pressure overnight as both Iran and Israel struck each other. The global energy state of play 100 days into the worst supply shock in modern history has confounded analysts and investors, with Brent crude prices stabilizing at $100 a barrel, instead of the $150 to $200 levels once feared. But the next 100 days could be less forgiving.
That’s because the market has already used many of its easiest workarounds, including more oil moving through or around Hormuz than initially expected, record U.S. exports, governments released hundreds of millions of barrels from emergency reserves, and China’s lower gasoline and diesel consumption.
Goldman Sachs estimates the Iran war cut global oil use by four million to five million barrels a day in April—or 4% to 5% of global demand —while the International Energy Agency now expects second-quarter demand to fall 2.4 million barrels a day from a year earlier.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron can benefit whether Hormuz reopens or stays closed. Their oil production businesses gain if inventories keep falling and crude prices rise, while their refineries, trading desks, chemical plants, and logistics networks can profit from the dislocations created by the war.
Prior to the recent escalation JPMorgan predicted Hormuz will reopen in June and expects Brent to remain near $100 per barrel for most of 2026. Each additional month would add roughly $5 a barrel to its third-quarter forecast for oil prices and $15 to its fourth-quarter estimate as inventories decline.
What’s Next: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to increase production next month by 188,000 barrels a day, the fourth-straight production increase. The seven nations said they would continue to closely monitor market conditions, and reaffirmed their “full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse.”
What the Looming Air India Report Means for Boeing
Boeing is approaching a solemn anniversary. It has been almost one year since the fatal Air India Flight 171, and that could mean another test for CEO Kelly Ortberg’s turnaround plan.
On June 12, 2025, a Boeing 787 crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, India, killing 229 passengers, 12 crew, and 19 people on the ground.
The crash’s anniversary signals the imminent arrival of the full accident investigation report. The preliminary report didn’t contain any recommendations for Boeing, which essentially shifted responsibility away from the plane and toward pilot error.
The final report will likely reiterate and expand on the existing findings. Still, there may be surprises. Preliminary reports are brief, leaving room for speculation.
Boeing stock traded at about $204 before the accident, more than 50% below the record of roughly $440 it reached in early 2019. Ortberg’s rebuild has progressed since then, leading to higher production and more stable financial results. Shares topped $250 before the war in Iran drove up oil prices.
What’s Next: What the final report will say is impossible to predict. AeroDynamic Advisory managing director and aerospace consultant Richard Aboulafia doesn’t expect materially different findings. Still, investors should be on the lookout for any recommendations regarding the maintenance and operation of Boeing’s flagship 787 jet.
Sports Betting Spotlighted as FIFA World Cup Begins
The 2026 World Cup could kick off an estimated $50 billion in global wagers over its 39 days, but that’s not the only event boosting the profile of sports betting. The NBA finals, Stanley Cup Finals, and U.S. Open golf tournament are also on tap this month.
Beyond those events, however, sports betting faces an uncertain future. Excluding the new sports betting market of Missouri, total U.S. sports wagers fell 3.1% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the American Gaming Association. March saw the steepest drop since June 2020.
Eight states have hiked their sports betting taxes since 2023, and five have put limits on sportsbooks taking tax deductions for promotional spending. Sportsbooks by DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment’s FanDuel face competition from prediction markets, which allow people to make sports bets regardless of their state laws.
Growth at leading prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket has been dizzying. Kalshi saw a record $14.8 billion of contracts traded in April, up some 3,100% from a year prior. Polymarket has a data-sharing partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of Barron’s.
Kalshi says it has 326 World Cup markets, with more planned. Polymarket has built a sports ecosystem to give fans worldwide “a transparent, peer-to-peer platform to engage with the moments that define the game,” Ari Borod, Polymarket’s president of sports business development, told Barron’s.
What’s Next: Kalshi and Polymarket are thriving in states like Texas and California, where traditional sports betting remains illegal, and prediction markets will be the only legal game in town for local bettors. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas, and Houston will all host World Cup matches this month.
Comments