The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1137 ET - Anticipation over the SpaceX IPO, and others expected from OpenAI and Anthropic, is seen as prompting outflows from bitcoin ETFs, on the theory that capital is moving back to more explosive assets. "We think the speculation has some teeth," says Colin Basco of Coinbase Institutional in a note, adding that the SpaceX IPO is competing "directly for the same pool of risk capital that funds speculative assets like crypto." Still, Basco admits "there is no clean way to trace a dollar from a redeemed bitcoin ETF into a SpaceX allocation." Bitcoin is up 0.8% to $63,860, according to LSEG data. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1126 ET - Bitcoin is up 0.6% to $63,715, building on Thursday's move higher. While money is still coming out of ETFs, data from CoinGlass shows outflows slowed to $22.5 million yesterday. Overall, markets continue to watch for progress toward a U.S./Iran deal, but the bigger economic picture remains tough for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, says Colin Basco of Coinbase Institutional in a note. "This is precisely the regime crypto struggles with," he says. "Firmer rate pressure, a stronger dollar, and reduced appetite for speculative duration all weigh directly on it." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1108 ET - Long-run inflation expectations fell back to 3.4% in June from 3.9% in May, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report. This was higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024---but it could still offer a sigh of relief to Fed officials, who watch whether inflation expectations drift too far from their goals. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1057 ET - Amid rising inflation and inflation expectations, the Fed is effectively easing monetary policy by not hiking rates and loosening financial conditions, according to a BofA note. Before the Fed's quiet period before the meeting next week ---Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said some economic conditions indicate that monetary policy is not restraining the economy. In a speech, Logan said AI investment continues to boom, while the job market has remained stable. Next week, the retail sales report from the Census Bureau will give economists and the Fed insight into how the consumer has held up amid the conflict in Iran. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1046 ET - Credit markets have stayed fairly stable in the face of geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and uncertain rates outlook, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. "Credit spreads have been exhibiting much lower volatility than sovereign bonds and we suspect this will remain the case for a few quarters at least," Valencia says. Solid investor demand for credit assets is likely to boost their performance, he says. They also offer higher yields than their sovereign bond peers, Valencia says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1028 ET - BofA expects the Federal Open Market Committee to remove its easing bias from its statement, with no dissents in its decision next week. In June's meeting they expect the FOMC to keep the policy rate at 3.5%-3.75%. They also predict the summary of economic projections should show higher inflation, a lower unemployment rate and no interest rate cuts this year. A few policymakers will likely project hikes. Like other economists have forecast, the bank says new chairman Kevin Warsh will not submit forecasts and will lean dovish in the presser. He will argue supply shocks are one-offs, the Fed should be forward-looking on AI disinflation and trimmed mean PCE and wage inflation do not look problematic. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1001 ET - Issuance of new euro-denominated covered bonds is expected to reach 165 billion euros this year, as the market faces a record 180 billion euros of redemption payments in 2027, ING's Maureen Schuller says in a note. Covered bonds are fairly secure debt securities issued by financial institutions and are backed by assets such as public-sector loans or mortgages. "We remain comfortable with this estimate regardless of the rise in interest rate levels and the implications this may have on mortgage lending growth," she says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0945 ET - The Bank of England could vote 7-2 to leave interest rates on hold Thursday, with two policymakers dissenting in favor of raising rates, but sterling's reaction should be limited, TD Securities strategists say in a note. The Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday will likely have a greater impact on sterling versus the dollar, they say. "As for euro versus sterling, we do not expect the market's pricing of rate hikes for either the European Central Bank or BOE to materially change in the short-term until further data clarity." TD expects euro-sterling to remain range-bound in the near term. The euro trades flat at 0.8631 pounds. Sterling is steady at $1.3409. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0938 ET - Gold prices extend gains in afternoon trading on hopes for a peace deal in the Middle East after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran. "The drop in U.S. Treasury yields is weighing on the U.S. dollar somewhat, as rate hike expectations for the Fed have been pushed back on the hope that a U.S.-Iran deal is around the corner," says Raffi Boyadjian, market analyst at brokerage XM. "A 25-bps [basis points] rate increase is now not fully priced in until March 2027." Gold futures in New York rose 2.7% to $4,445.20 a troy ounce, though they remain on track for a weekly loss of 6% as risks of escalation in the conflict and U.S. consumer price data weighed heavily on bullion this week. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0927 ET - The euro has proved relatively stable despite geopolitical tensions, but the balance of risks is stacking up against the exchange rate, HSBC analysts say in a note. "Crucially, the monetary outlook favors the dollar." While the market prices further European Central Bank interest rate rises, HSBC expects cuts in 2027. Rate differentials could therefore swing in favor of the dollar, particularly if the Federal Reserve shifts to signaling policy tightening, they say. The euro's underlying position is also weakening due to structural headwinds, they say. The eurozone's current account surplus has narrowed as its manufacturing competitiveness deteriorates. Political risk could also rotate back to Europe as the April 2027 French election approaches, they say. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1565. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0925 ET - With the wealth created through SpaceX's IPO, a new report from Redfin says current and former employees could hypothetically pool their money to buy an estimated 40% of all homes in San Antonio. San Antonio is the closest major U.S. metro area to the company's Starbase, TX headquarters. Another couple of hypothetical scenarios: employees could buy an estimated 15% of all homes in Houston, one of the largest housing markets in the country, or every single home in McAllen, Texas. McAllen is much smaller than the other markets, but only 80 miles away from Starbase, and employees would have about $74 billion left over, the report adds. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
0901 ET - The net worth of Canadian households was up in 1Q, though the savings rate fell and borrowing edged higher as mortgage demand softened. The value of household assets versus liabilities rose 1.3% in 1Q to reach just over C$18.6 trillion. After two straight quarterly declines, non-financial assets were up 1.1% thanks to an uptick in the value of residential real estate, and financial assets rose 1.3%, Statistics Canada data shows. On the other side of the ledger, household liabilities nudged up 0.4%. On a per-capita basis, household net worth rose to C$448,433 from C$442,896 in 1Q. National net worth--the sum of national wealth and Canada's net foreign asset position--inched up 0.4% to C$19.191 trillion after falling 0.8% in 4Q 2025. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 12, 2026 11:37 ET (15:37 GMT)
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