By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting June 15.
A raft of interest rate decisions from central banks including the Federal Reserve and Bank of England are in focus in the week ahead.
The Fed and BOE are both widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged but the focus is on whether they will leave the door open to the possibility of raising rates later this year. The Riksbank, Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank are also set to announce their decisions.
In Asia, investors are looking ahead to a slate of central-bank decisions in Japan, Australia and Indonesia as the prolonged Middle East conflict weighs on the economic outlook and adds pressure on regional currencies. Trade data from New Zealand, Malaysia and Singapore will offer further clues on how higher energy prices are shaping the global economy.
U.S.
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday where the focus is on any guidance from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Market pricing on LSEG implies little prospect of the Fed raising rates Wednesday. However, markets have recently increased odds of a move later this year in response to recent robust labor market reports, resilient U.S. economic activity data and the energy price shock stemming from the Middle East conflict.
The latest data on consumer prices showed annual inflation rose to 4.2% in May but the core measure eased by more than forecast to 0.2% month-on-month. Hotter headline inflation is an unwelcome handoff as the new Fed Chair takes the wheel, Fitch Ratings head of U.S. economics Olu Sonola said in a note. "But this is not yet a panic-hike story." Core inflation remains relatively contained, giving the Fed room to keep rates on hold for a while longer, he said.
Economic data include industrial production and the Empire State manufacturing survey on Monday, followed by new housing starts on Tuesday, retail sales and pending home sales on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
On Friday is the Juneteenth public holiday and the stock and bond markets will be closed.
The Treasury will auction 20-year bonds on Tuesday and five-year inflation-protected TIPS on Thursday.
Eurozone
The European Central Bank's 25-basis-point tightening on Thursday, its first interest-rate hike since 2023, is followed by a week light in data. The ECB raised the key deposit rate to 2.25% in a widely-anticipated move, pointing to the challenges major economies are facing from higher oil prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The ECB raised its inflation forecasts and cut the growth projections. Analysts believe the ECB will likely deliver another interest-rate hike, possibly in September, when a new set of staff forecast is available.
"ECB President Lagarde struck a moderately 'hawkish' tone at the latest meeting," DZ Bank analyst Christian Reicherter said in a note. "This generally suggests that the recent rate hike is likely to be followed by another," the analyst said.
However, DZ Bank doesn't anticipate the start of a comprehensive rate-hiking cycle.
"We do not expect the next hike in July, but rather after the summer break in September."
Eurozone industrial production data for April are due Monday, followed by final eurozone harmonized CPI data for May on Wednesday. The German ZEW economic sentiment index is due on Tuesday.
Slovakia will hold a bond auction on Monday, while Spain and France will hold auctions on Thursday. Germany will sell April 2031 Bobl on Tuesday and 2047- and 2053-dated Bunds on Wednesday.
U.K.
The Bank of England's monetary policy decision on Thursday is the U.K.'s main event. The BOE is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, although they could signal willingness to raise rates at future meetings if energy prices stay high for an extended period, Oxford Economics' Edward Allenby said in a note.
The special election in the Makerfield constituency on Thursday is also expected to dominate U.K. markets next week. One of the candidates in the election, Andy Burnham, has said he would enter any Labour leadership contest if he wins, keeping alive the question about Prime Minister Keir Starmer's future.
"Andy Burnham is extremely likely to become the next prime minister if he wins the Makerfield by-election," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak said in a note.
Investors will closely watch the U.K. inflation data and jobs data due to be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, to gain clues on the potential future direction of the BOE rates.
Other economic data set to be released next week include Rightmove house price index data on Monday, and U.K. consumer confidence survey data, public sector finances data, and U.K. retail sales data on Friday.
The U.K. will sell gilts maturing in July 2036 on Tuesday.
Scandinavia
The Riksbank's interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday where markets are nearly fully pricing in rates being held steady at 1.75%, according to LSEG data. "The bank remains in wait-and-see mode, as soft underlying inflation allows policymakers time to assess the effects of the Iran war on the economy," Nomura analysts said in a note. However, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more likely the Riksbank will respond by raising rates, they said. The Riksbank's new guidance and updated policy rate projections could indicate the increased probability of a rate rise before year-end while highlighting elevated uncertainties, they said. Nomura, however, doesn't expect a rate rise until the end of 2027 due to soft underlying inflation and a fragile economic recovery.
Swedish labor market data are also due on Monday.
In Norway, the Norges Bank will follow the Riksbank with its decision on Thursday. Norway's central bank is expected to leave rates at 4.25% after delivering a surprise 25 basis points rate rise in May.
"Underlying inflation remains sticky, but inflation is not sufficiently high to warrant back-to-back rate rises," Nomura analysts said. However, the Norges Bank could signal a rate rise later this year given the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and underlying inflation accelerated in May, they said. Nomura expects a 25bps rate rise in September.
Denmark and Sweden will hold bond auctions on Wednesday.
Switzerland
The Swiss National Bank is expected to leave interest rates at 0% when it announces its policy decision on Thursday. The SNB has some breathing space as inflation is comfortably within its target range of 0-2%, having remained stable at 0.6% year-on-year in May, Nomura analysts said in a note. The franc's strength over the past several months is likely exerting downward price pressure on some goods imports, counteracting the effects of higher energy prices, they said.
"A key question is whether the SNB will repeat its wording from the last meeting that its 'willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased' as opposed to the more typical statement that it 'remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary'."
Czech Republic
The Czech National Bank's next policy decision is on Thursday. The CNB will likely raise rates in a split vote, ING analysts said in a note. The economy doesn't appear ready for tighter monetary policy but CNB policymakers have hinted that a rate rise is more likely than unchanged rates, they said. "Governor Ales Michl has become rather vocal about the need for tighter monetary policy, suggesting that he is willing to raise interest rates even though this could weigh on economic growth."
Latin America
Brazil's central bank will deliver its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The market prices a 66% chance that interest rates will be held at 14.5% and a 34% probability of another 25 basis points rate cut, according to LSEG data. The central bank, or Copom, cut rates for the second straight month in April as growth slowed and the economy faced inflation headwinds from the Middle East conflict. It indicated that future rate decisions were unclear and caution is needed given uncertainty over the impact of the conflict.
Japan
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold a two-day monetary-policy meeting starting Monday. While Gov. Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized and is expected to miss the meeting, he will continue to perform his duties remotely as needed, the BOJ said. Ueda is expected to remain in the hospital for about two weeks while receiving treatment for an infected liver cyst, the central bank said.
Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino will serve as acting chairman for the upcoming meeting, while Deputy Gov. Shinichi Uchida will conduct the post-meeting press conference, according to the central bank.
While Gov. Ueda won't be able to vote in his absence, he will provide his views in writing, according to the central bank. "If the vote were to end in a tie, Deputy Governor Himino, acting as chair, would make the deciding call--but his decision would not diverge from Governor Ueda's intentions," JPMorgan's Ayako Fujita said.
The impact of Ueda's absence on the BOJ's expected policy decisions is likely to be limited, Fujita said. "The direction toward a rate hike already appears to be widely shared among board members, making a sharp split in votes unlikely," the economist added.
The Bank of Japan is also scheduled to conduct outright purchases across four sectors of the Japanese government bond market on Thursday. These include bonds with maturities of more than one year and up to three years, more than five years and up to 10 years, and more than 10 years and up to 25 years. The planned purchases are likely to provide support to Japan's bond market.
Trade data and consumer-price index figures for May are also scheduled for release on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.
China
A busy week lies ahead for China, headlined by a slew of May economic data releases that will offer fresh insight into how the world's second-largest economy is faring amid a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
The data, including industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment, are expected to indicate overall improvement and signal economic resilience despite macro headwinds.
Amid a continuing export boom, DBS economists forecast China's industrial production growth to jump to 4.6% on year in May, up from 4.1% in April, thanks to strong external demand for AI-related electronics. The improvement should align with the latest high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMI readings, which both strengthened last month.
Meanwhile, ANZ expects retail sales growth to pick up to 1.0% in May, up from 0.2% in the previous month on an improvement largely from an extended Labor Day holiday. Analysts broadly agree that domestic consumption remains subdued, with DBS economists highlighting weak household sentiment continuing to weigh on spending amid uncertain employment prospects, slower income growth and elevated precautionary savings.
May fixed-asset investment readings will also be closely watched. DBS expects year-to-date investment to contract 2.0% in May from a year earlier, as companies continue to navigate the government's ongoing crackdown on overcapacity and aggressive price competition.
Beijing will release its latest house price index as markets watch for signs of whether the prolonged downturn in housing prices, which has been a key drag on household wealth, will continue to deepen.
Investors are also monitoring May's foreign direct investment data release.
Australia/New Zealand
Australia's central bank will make its interest-rate decision Tuesday, which is widely expected to maintain the official cash rate at 4.35% as policymakers wait on more data to show the Iran conflict's impact on the economy.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points at each of its past three meetings in an effort to dampen inflation, fully reversing the cuts made in 2025.
Data has since shown that consumer-price growth slowed in April, but largely due to a temporary fuel tax cut. Markets anticipate at least one more rate rise by end-2026, with UBS economists among those tipping August as the most likely window.
Top of the docket in New Zealand is GDP for the three months through March, with economists expecting a strong bounce back from tepid quarterly growth of 0.2% at the end of 2025.
The headline number, due Thursday, will be interesting because New Zealand's central bank forecast GDP growth of 1.0% last month.
ASB economist Kim Mundy doesn't expect the RBNZ's forecast will be met. ASB is tipping a GDP rise of 0.8% on quarter, and a 1.0% increase on an annual basis. "We expect the data to be consistent with an economy that was gaining traction," ASB says. "However, pockets of weakness will still be visible."
Westpac's Michael Gordon is more bullish, anticipating a 1.0% rise in quarterly GDP. The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on economic output is more likely to be apparent in the second quarter. Gordon adds that GDP is the only major data release before the RBNZ's rate decision in July, and it would need to be a large surprise to shift policymakers' thinking.
Taiwan
Taiwan's central bank will hold its June-quarter monetary policy meeting on Thursday, the first since May inflation rose above the 2% threshold - a level not breached in a year.
Taiwan was one of the few holdouts in the wave of monetary easing last year, and it could possibly be one of the few to not hike this year as growth continues to be powered by AI-driven demand for exports and inflation remains manageable so far.
While most economists expect the central bank to stand pat for another quarter, Barclays economists see a chance of a 12.5-basis-point hike in the June meeting. Higher inflation, the building pressure on the Taiwan dollar from other central banks' tightening, and high oil prices could nudge the CBC to deliver a surprise hike.
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia already delivered an emergency rate hike to bolster the ailing rupiah, and markets will be keen to see if it does so again.
The central bank could tighten by another 25 basis points at Thursday's regularly scheduled meeting, some economists say, as the currency remains under pressure.
Others, including at ING, think BI will hold steady after the off-cycle move.
ING reckons the central bank will prioritize alternative measures to attract foreign capital inflows and steady the rupiah. Still, supporting the currency while mitigating downside risks to economic growth is a delicate balancing act.
Philippines
The Philippine central bank is widely expected to deliver a rate hike on Thursday as inflation remains uncomfortably strong despite a pullback in May.
As inflationary pressures persist, markets are betting that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will probably tighten further even at the risk of imperiling growth.
"Like an acrobat that balances on a tightrope, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is in a tough but delicate balancing act," said HSBC economist Aris Dacanay.
While the economy's growth is well below potential, inflation is running hot, and given the BSP's price-stability mandate, Dacanay expects a 50-basis-point hike ahead.
Malaysia
Malaysia will release its May inflation and trade data on Friday.
Headline inflation is expected to edge up to 2.0% in May from 1.9% in April, driven by low base effects and modest energy cost pass-through, though fuel subsidies and stable food prices are likely to keep inflation contained, DBS economists Taimur Baig and Samuel Tse said in a note.
Meanwhile, export growth is projected to accelerate to 40.0% from 36.9%, mainly supported by AI-driven electronics demand and stronger energy shipments.
Singapore
Singapore will release non-oil domestic exports data for May on Wednesday, showing how trade has fared amid prolonged supply-chain disruptions.
Barclays analysts think exports growth likely accelerated, boosted by a favorable base effect and continuous semiconductor demand.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore's June survey of professional forecasters is due on Wednesday.
The report will show if experts polled by the central bank have adjusted their growth forecasts to account for the price shock brought about by the conflict in the Middle East.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Renae Dyer at renae.dyer@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 12, 2026 08:23 ET (12:23 GMT)
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