By Catherine Dunn
If AI is coming for jobs, what will that mean for how workers get health insurance? Barclays analysts on Wednesday said health insurers serving the individual marketplace could come out ahead.
Barclays upgraded its rating of Oscar to overweight, a buy equivalent, and reiterated its overweight rating on Centene in a new research note about the ripple effects of work disruption for healthcare.
"As white-collar employment comes under increasing pressure from an evolving labor market and AI-driven disruption, we expect the nontraditional workforce to expand, positioning the Individual ACA market as the fastest-growing end market in health insurance over the next 5-10 years," Barclays writes.
At the start, Barclays focuses on comments from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei earlier this year, who said "AI will disrupt 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs over 1 -- 5 years."
The implications for health insurance merit more attention, the bank says, given how many Americans depend on employer-sponsored health benefits. Last year, that figure totaled 60% of U.S. residents who were under age 65, according to health policy research group KFF.
Heading into the AI era, the safety net for health insurance has changed. In past unemployment spikes -- like the Dot-com bubble in the early 2000s and the global financial crisis between 2007 and 2008 -- Medicaid absorbed fallout and grew by more than 20%, Barclays notes.
But the pandemic saw a shift in that pattern. By then, the individual marketplaces that opened in 2014 were well established under the Affordable Care Act.
"During Covid, Medicaid growth was more muted than in prior cycles, increasing 11% from 2019 to 2021, while Individual ACA enrollment grew more rapidly (+21%)," Barclays wrote.
Barclays argues that risks in the individual exchanges are misunderstood, even with the expiration last year of certain subsidies for consumers purchasing those plans.
"In practice, subsidy mechanics largely insulate consumers from premium volatility, with more than 90% of ACA enrollees receiving subsidies," the note says.
The health insurance impact on young workers from AI disruption is likely to lag labor market trends, and "may not fully translate into employer-sponsored coverage loss" until 2028 to 2030, Barclays estimates.
Meanwhile, Oscar and Centene "stand to benefit most."
Write to Catherine Dunn at catherine.dunn@dowjones.com
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June 10, 2026 13:50 ET (17:50 GMT)
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