The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1036 ET - Deepwater oil reserves estimated at 10 billion recoverable barrels may catapult Brazil into the world's top five producers, Oxford Economics' Felipe Camargo writes. State-controlled Petrobras has earmarked $2.5 billion for projects in the new frontier, Camargo says. Nine other companies were awarded 34 blocks along the northern coastline last year. The impact on Brazil's long-run GDP will likely range between 0.8% and 1.1% per year by 2050, Camargo says. "Although there's a risk that oil won't be found, the fact that the basin borders Guyana's successful Stabroek Block is encouraging," he says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1030 ET - Canada is selling more to the world, with exports in April hitting a record C$2.7 billion. However, Sibley Creek economist Jay Zhao-Murray notes the rise in exports was driven by sales to the U.S., going against Prime Minister Mark Carney's aim of diversifying trade. Goods shipments to the U.S. were up by C$2.4 billion, while exports to the second-largest export growth destination China increased by C$521 million. "The U.S. is a behemoth; Canada's second- and third-largest trade partners don't even come close," the economist says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1014 ET - The strength in Canadian exports in April isn't just an oil price story, Capital Economics' Ariane Curtis says. Higher oil prices continue to support energy exports, but Canada also saw a broad-based rise in export volumes. And the improvement in Canada's terms of trade since the Iran War began suggests that the trade surplus should rise further in the coming months, Curtis says. The goods-trade surplus widened to about C$2.7 billion in April from March's C$1.8 billion as the value of exports hit a record. The economist says the trade data appear to be consistent with the flash April estimate of a strong 0.4% on-month rise in GDP. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0949 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are modestly lower as a cooler weather outlook for the second half of June crimps demand expectations. "Futures are trying to hold the seasonal bullish structure against weather models that have been cooling," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. LNG demand is expected to rise as maintenance ends, but "weather will need to move back to warmer-than-normal forecasts to lift prices significantly." Nymex natural gas is off 0.4% at $3.133/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0941 ET - Oil futures give back yesterday's gains as Israel and Iran halt fire and President Trump says an agreement to end the Middle East conflict could be signed in two or three days. "The situation remains highly uncertain and we have seen many false dawns before," says Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu. "One diplomatic setback could reignite the risk premium and send prices sharply higher." Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened it will take months to restore flows to normal levels, he adds. WTI is down 2.6% at $88.89 a barrel and Brent is off 2.2% at $92.21. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0920 ET - BP's new simpler organizational structure is positive and restores upstream accountability, Barclays's Lydia Rainforth writes. The shift to a more conventional two-segment model brings the British energy company in line with peers, she adds. "The focus from now is on execution." BP's shares fall 1% to 540.40 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0908 ET - Treasury yields slip amid signs of declining optimism among U.S. small-business owners. Tensions remain high in the Middle East, but oil prices fall around 2% and the WSJ Dollar Index is down 0.2%. The NFIB small-business optimism index falls 0.6 points to 95.3 in May, below its 98.0 52-week average. Economists polled by WSJ expected 96.2. The U.S. April trade deficit shrinks to $55.9 billion from a revised $56.6 billion. The 10-year yield is at 4.544%, down from 4.550% yesterday. The two-year declines to 4.139% from 4.156%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0803 ET - An interest rate rise by the Bank of Japan on June 16 is unlikely to trigger a significant reversal of the yen's weakness, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. That is because such a move is nearly fully priced in, he says. The BOJ is also considering pausing the tapering of its government bond purchasing program from April 2027, according to media reports. "Overall, the latest developments have not changed our view that the yen is likely to remain weak in the near-term until the worst of the energy price shock begins to fade." The dollar trades flat at 160.15 yen, near the five-week high of 160.39 reached Monday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0547 ET - Siemens Energy's outlook is strong despite some harbouring concerns about the outlook for gas turbines, Deutsche Bank's Gael de-Bray writes. There have been concerns about the sector hitting peak orders in the coming quarters as some data center projects in the U.S. struggle to obtain approvals, de-Bray saysA. At the same time, Elon Musk has outlined a vision for orbital data centers while Mitsubishi Heavy Industries plans to boost production, raising fears of oversupply, de-Bray adds. However, the new equipment turbine business is only 15% of group revenue and its aftermarket business has upside potential, de-Bray writes. Elsewhere, the market underestimates the group's grid investments and the turnaround of Gamesa, de-Bray adds. Shares are flat at 157.76 euros.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0512 ET - The Russian ruble is being supported by a recent significant improvement in Russia's oil and gas revenues on elevated energy prices due to the Iran war, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. However, energy prices will likely drift lower by year-end while refinery damage from Ukrainian strikes and the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions should prevent Russia from utilizing the newly expanded OPEC+ output quota in the medium term, he says. "Once the oil-price bonanza is out of the way, we expect the [ruble] to resume depreciating." The dollar falls 1.9% to a one-week low of 71.4205 rubles, according to LSEG. Commerzbank expects the dollar to reach 75.0000 rubles by the end of 2026 and 90.0000 by end-2027. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0509 ET - A.P. Moller-Maersk faces increasing downside risk to earnings from overcapacity, Nordea analyst Lars Heindorff writes. Container-vessel owners continue to order new vessels, and Nordea now estimates gross supply of 5.0%, 8.9% and 12.0% for 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively. In addition, a return to the Suez Canal will release around 5% of global capacity, possibly adding further downward pressure, the bank adds. While Maersk is cheap, Nordea expects further rate pressure to weigh on the share price, which is likely to become more visible as 2026 progresses and investors look to 2027-28. Nordea maintains its sell rating on the Danish transport company and increases its target price on its stock to 13,500 Danish kroner from 13,100 kroner. Shares fall 1.1% to 17,505 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
0456 ET - CSE Global's share selloff following the resignation of its lead independent director seems unwarranted to UOB Kay Hian's John Cheong and Heidi Mo. They note that the Singapore-listed stock has shed about 20% since the director left in early June, citing "unresolved differences of views with regard to working with controlling shareholders." The analysts acknowledge the governance gap but maintain their investment thesis, as the systems integrator's operational growth remains intact. They also expect results to recover in 2H after a likely softer 1H, as the company's roughly S$700 million order book should convert into revenue. CSE Global provides electrification, communications and automation solutions. UOB KH maintains its buy rating and S$1.79 target price. Shares fall 1.5% to S$1.31. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 09, 2026 10:36 ET (14:36 GMT)
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