The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35% at its June meeting, following three consecutive hikes that have taken policy into restrictive territory, BofA Securities said in a Thursday note.
Higher rates are weighing on households and businesses, particularly given the large share of borrowers on variable rate mortgages, the investment firm said. Housing momentum is softening, consumer and business sentiment remains weak, and the labor market continues to soften.
However, inflation remains high, and the extent of second-round spillovers is still uncertain.
The firm priced in around 20 basis points of RBA rate hikes by December, but there is scope for this to be pared back if the governor places greater weight on signs that tighter policy is cooling the labor market and household spending, signaling that policy is sufficiently restrictive.
A unanimous decision to hold would reinforce the view that the RBA is likely to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, BofA said. Meanwhile, the main risk is a second quarter inflation overshoot, triggering an August hike.
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