Bernstein: 2026 FIFA World Cup Is A 'Watershed Moment' For Prediction Markets—But Who Will Win It?

Benzinga_recent_news06-11

The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off across North America Thursday, and Wall Street thinks the prediction market industry may be the biggest winner off the pitch. Analysts at Bernstein called the ...

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What it means for DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"CONY":"COIN期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","HOOG":"2倍做多HOOD ETF- Leverage Shares","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","COIO":"2倍上限加速COIN ETF-Leverage Shares","BK4516":"特朗普概念","HOOI":"Defiance Leveraged Long + Income HOOD ETF","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","COII":"REX COIN Growth& Income ETF","LU2360107671.USD":"BGF FINTECH \"A4\" (USD) INC","COIW":"COIN周配息ETF-Roundhill","HOOW":"Roundhill HOOD WeeklyPay™ ETF","BK4596":"哈里斯概念","ROBN":"2倍做多HOOD ETF-T-REX","FIAT":"做空COIN期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","HOOX":"2倍做多HOOD ETF-Defiance","BK4588":"碎股","BK4600":"加密货币概念","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","HOOY":"HOOD期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","HOII":"REX HOOD Growth & Income ETF","BK4595":"比特币概念","HOOZ":"2倍做空HOOD ETF-Defiance","HOOD":"Robinhood","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","HODU":"Direxion Daily HOOD Bull 2X ETF","HOYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST HOOD ETF","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4539":"次新股","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","COYY":"GRANITESHARES YIELDBOOST COIN ETF","CONI":"2倍做空COIN ETF-GraniteShares","CONL":"2倍做多COIN ETF-GraniteShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","COIA":"ProShares Ultra Coin ETF","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","ICOI":"Bitwise COIN Option Income Strategy ETF","CONX":"Direxion Daily COIN Bull 2X ETF","COIG":"2倍做多COIN ETF- Leverage Shares"},"translate_title":"伯恩斯坦：2026年FIFA世界杯是预测市场的“分水岭时刻”——但谁会赢得它？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CONY":0.6,"HOYY":0.6,"COIN":1.86,"ICOI":0.6,"CONL":0.6,"HOOW":0.6,"HOOZ":0.6,"HOII":0.6,"COIG":0.6,"ROBN":0.6,"HOOI":0.6,"CONI":0.6,"HODU":0.6,"HOOG":0.6,"HOOY":0.6,"HOOX":0.6,"COIO":0.6,"COII":0.6,"HOOD":1.93,"CONX":0.6,"COYY":0.6,"COIA":0.6,"COIW":0.6,"FIAT":0.6},"content_text":"The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off across North America Thursday, and Wall Street thinks the prediction market industry may be the biggest winner off the pitch.\nAnalysts at Bernstein called the expanded 48-team tournament a “watershed moment” for the sector and its single largest volume catalyst yet.\nBernstein estimates the tournament could drive more than $3 billion in bets on the event itself and lift overall consumer prediction market volume by $5 billion to $10 billion.\nThe 104-match schedule lands in June and July, historically the softest stretch for online sports betting handle.\nOn Polymarket, traders have made Spain the narrow favorite to lift the trophy at roughly 17%, edging France at 16% on a winner market that has already drawn around $2 billion in volume.\nFrench Real Madrid Galactico Kylian Mbappé is the favorite to be the Golden Boot Winner, awarded to the player who scores the most goals. \nThat matters because regulated online sportsbooks currently under-index to the Hispanic consumer by 0.69x, making a Telemundo tie-in and Spanish-native app a sharp acquisition funnel. The firm sees the window adding about 650,000 funded accounts.\nRobinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) is using opening day to debut Rothera, its new integrated CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse built with Susquehanna.\nBernstein projects prediction markets reaching a $586 million annualized revenue rate for Robinhood by year-end, roughly 17% of its transaction-based revenues.\nCoinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) is offering World Cup contracts through its Kalshi partnership, a line that crossed $100 million in annualized revenue within two months of launch.\nOver the trailing year, Kalshi’s monthly volume grew roughly 22x against Polymarket’s 7x, per a June study from Crane & Zeng Consulting.\nIn May, Kalshi surged 21% to $17.9 billion and about 57% share, while Polymarket fell 14.8% to $7.1 billion, or 22.7%.\nThe study, commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, estimated that roughly 30% of Polymarket’s offshore volume, about $16.7 billion over the trailing year, is American money flowing to a venue that legally cannot serve it.\nImage: IMAGN\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2642928021","isCrawlerRequest":true}