Stock futures soar, oil prices fall as Trump says U.S. has reached peace deal with Iran

MW Stock futures soar, oil prices fall as Trump says U.S. has reached peace deal with Iran

By Mike Murphy

President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office on June 11.

Oil prices fell and U.S. stock-index futures jumped Sunday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. has agreed to a peace deal with Iran, apparently ending months of hostilities that shut the Strait of Hormuz and sent the global economy into an oil shock.

"The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," Trump said in a social-media post late Sunday. "Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!"

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) surged more than 300 points, or 0.5%, late Sunday. S&P 500 futures (ES00) rose 0.8% and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) were up 1.2%. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was recently trading above $65,000, up more than 2% since the peace deal was announced.

West Texas Intermediate crude prices (CL.1) fell more than 5%, to nearly $80 a barrel. Oil prices fell more than 3% on Friday, settling at their lowest level in three months after Pakistan said a peace deal was near.

There was no immediate confirmation from Iran. When asked for further details, the White House referred to Trump's social-media post. The New York Times reported that the biggest hurdle to a lasting peace deal, the issue of Iran's nuclear program, will be pushed down the road to the next round of negotiations.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country has led the mediation efforts, said in a social-media post Sunday that the deal will be signed in Switzerland on Friday. "Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon," he said. Trump has claimed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen immediately after an agreement is complete.

A lasting peace deal would be welcome news for the global economy, which has faced an oil shock since the effective closure of the strategic strait in late February cut off the supply of much of the Persian Gulf's oil and gas exports.

"The market has been conditioned by too many 'almost there' headlines," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in an early Sunday note. But "if a deal lands and Hormuz reopens, the knee-jerk script is not complicated. Sell oil."

Average U.S. gas prices fell below $4 a gallon on Sunday for the first time since April 20, according to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "Whether it stays below this level is contingent on an elusive deal to permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz," he said on social media Sunday.

U.S. stocks ended higher Friday SPX DJIA COMP, as all three major indexes booked weekly gains. Sentiment was helped by hopes of an Iran peace deal and the massive IPO by SpaceX, whose shares surged 19% in its first day of trading Friday, closing with a $2.1 trillion market cap.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a Sunday note that the success of SpaceX's IPO was "a 'Goldilocks outcome' for the tech sector," which bodes well for IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI before year's end, adding that "the tech sector and chip trade still has a lot of room to go higher over the coming months."

"Overall, SpaceX going public is an important watershed moment for the broader tech sector in our view as this AI Revolution and data takes this next step forward," Ives said.

Investors will also be paying close attention as the Federal Reserve's interest-rate-setting committee meets. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak after the meeting Wednesday. While no rate changes are expected, he's likely to lay out his plans to take the Fed in a new direction. Whether or not that includes rate hikes, or cuts, later this year remains to be seen.

More: Will the real Kevin Warsh please stand up? Ahead of his first Fed meeting, economists honestly don't know what to expect.

A lasting peace agreement with Iran could bring oil prices back down, helping lower U.S. inflation and possibly weakening the case for raising rates.

But while "peace should take the rate-hike ghost out of the hallway," Innes wrote, "it does not automatically deliver a Fed pivot, because the Fed's problem is no longer just the war premium," noting the effects of tariffs, sticky core inflation and the relatively strong labor market.

-Mike Murphy

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June 14, 2026 18:13 ET (22:13 GMT)

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