Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0458 ET - The cost of insuring Israel's five-year government bonds against default falls to its lowest level in nearly three years after the U.S. and Iran agree to end the Middle East conflict. "Markets got a dose of relief after the U.S. and Iran agreed to halt hostilities and move toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes," eToro's Lale Akoner says in a note. Israel's five-year credit default swap spreads trade at 50 basis points, the lowest since September 2023, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0443 ET - Energy flows are expected to return to around 80% of pre-disruption levels by the end of the third quarter, says Neil Shearing from Capital Economics. "It is likely that it will take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to prewar levels," the chief economist says. "Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait will remain." Natural-gas flows instead are likely to recover more slowly as Iranian strikes against Qatari facilities have taken about 17% of output offline. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0439 ET - European defense stocks fall, while engine makers rise after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a preliminary deal to end the war in the Middle East. BAE Systems, Rheinmetall and Renk are down 1.6%, 0.8% and 0.2% respectively, while Rolls-Royce, Airbus, MTU Aero Engines and Safran are up 4.8%, 4%, 6.5% and 4.7%, respectively. On Sunday, the U.S. and Iran said they had agreed on an interim peace deal, which is expected to be signed Friday. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0415 ET - Key issues remain unresolved in the agreement reached between Iran and the U.S., Commerzbank's Joerg Kraemer says in a note. During the deal's 60-day negotiation period, issues such as Iran's nuclear program will be ironed out. "We expect a rollercoaster of good and bad news over the next two months," he says. For instance, Hezbollah could resume shelling northern Israel, and a forceful Israeli reaction might then prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again, Kraemer notes. However, the positive market reaction overnight means prior expectations of oil fluctuating around the $100 mark could be lowered. The agreement limits downside risks to the economy, though only meager growth of 0.6% each for Germany and the eurozone is expected this year, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0405 ET - U.K. government bonds, or gilts, could experience higher volatility as investors await the Bank of England interest rate decision due on Thursday, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. The BOE is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%, but markets will look for signals of potential rate rises at future meetings, Munnelly says. The special election in Makerfield constituency due on Thursday also "adds to that sensitivity because it may shape expectations around Labour leadership and the future fiscal strategy", he says. One of the candidates in the election, Andy Burnham, has said he would enter any Labour leadership contest if he wins. Ten-year gilt yields fall 7 basis points to 4.767%, the lowest in two months, after the U.S. and Iran reach a peace agreement, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0403 ET - The dollar's falls are likely to remain modest after the U.S. and Iran agreed an interim peace deal as markets await Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The biggest focus this week is on Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, he says. The market expects the Fed to remove its bias toward cutting rates. But Warsh will have to talk tough on inflation to avoid upsetting the long end of the Treasury market, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 99.529. "There is outside risk to the 99.00/99.15 area, but Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee event risk probably limits a further sell-off just yet." (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0347 ET - Shares in European automakers are higher after the U.S. and Iran reached a peace deal. The deal is expected to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened following the signing on Friday. The auto sector has been weighed by hostilities in the Middle East, as prices for gas, electricity, aluminum and other commodities have increased the cost of manufacturing. There have also been concerns over supply-chain stability and the potential demand impact from a weaker economy. Stellantis and Renault shares both rise over 5.5% while Volvo Car and Ferrari are 4.4% higher. BMW shares are up 4.1% while Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz shares rise 3.4%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
0341 ET - European luxury stocks gain after Iran and the U.S. agreed on an interim deal to end a war that hit companies in the sector. Sector pacesetter LVMH, which owns Louis Vuitton and Dior, is up around 4.5%, while shares in Gucci-owner Kering jump around 3.2%. Hermes trades 5% higher, while Italian peers Brunello Cucinelli and Salvatore Ferragamo rise 3% and 2.6%, respectively. Swiss luxury groups Richemont and Swatch climb around 3%. Moncler, Prada and Burberry also record gains. (andrea.figueras@wsj.com)
0334 ET - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says the agreement between Iran and the U.S. to be signed this Friday is "good news". The deal announced by President Trump and Pakistani officials on social media would end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. "One can only welcome it," Lagarde told radio station France Culture. However, the ECB president noted that there were a number of prior occasions when hopes were dashed just as an agreement seemed imminent. She also says the latest pact isn't "the end of the story", given that discussions need to continue over details such as uranium enrichment. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0329 ET - European energy stocks start the week lower after the U.S. and Iran announced an interim peace deal that should get oil shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement pushes Brent crude futures 4.6% lower to $83.29 a barrel while WTI falls 3.2% to $74.92 a barrel. Energy majors have reported bumper profits driven by higher oil prices and conflict-induced volatility that traders have been able to monetize. In opening trade in London, BP falls 4% while Shell drops 3.8%. Spain's Repsol drops 5.1% while France's TotalEnergies and Italy's Eni both slide 4.5%. Norway's Equinor falls 5.6%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0319 ET - European markets followed Asian peers higher after the U.S. and Iran agreed to an interim deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Germany's DAX, London's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 were up 1.7%, 0.7% and 1.6%, respectively, while the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 was 1.2% higher. Markets were boosted by rises in most sectors but weighed by energy after oil prices fell. Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Repsol were down 3.4%, 3.6%, 4.7% and 4.4%, respectively. Brent crude fell 4.4% to $83.45 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures were down 5% to $80.60 a barrel. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0316 ET - Although a peace deal between Iran and the U.S. is in the offing, tough conversations still need to take place within an initial 60-day window to ensure peace is sustainable, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. The peace agreement foresees a wider accord which includes constraints around Iran's nuclear program, a phased lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports, and unfreezing around $12 billion in overseas assets. Moreover, it also carries a commitment to reopen Hormuz within 30 days and the removal of the U.S. naval blockade. "After 107 days and a seemingly endless number of false dawns, we finally have a deal between the U.S. and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz," the bank says. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 15, 2026 04:59 ET (08:59 GMT)
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