Three Reasons Why I’m Not Chasing SpaceX… and What to Do Instead

InvestorPlace06-14 20:55

Meet Luke Lango SpaceX is a great company — but great companies routinely make poor IPO buys: Facebook fell over 50% in its first three months public, Amazon dropped 90% from its dot-com peak, ...

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So was the FOMO on Facebook's IPO — right before it dropped 50%.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"investorplace.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"我不追逐SpaceX的三个原因……以及该怎么做","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5a8096e5e441242badb24249d34092a","symbols_score_info":{"TSLW":0.6,"USAW.SI":0.6,"METU":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"AMZY":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"META":1.8,"FBYY":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"09366":0.6,"SPCX":1.77,"FBL":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"METD":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"RKLZ":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"RKLB":1.67,"GOOP":0.6,"07366":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLA":1.79,"CRSH":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"AMZP":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"09766":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"FBY":0.6,"SPCH":0.6,"AZYY":0.6,"METW":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"GOOGL":1.7,"RKLX":0.6,"AMZU":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"SPCF":0.6,"LOFF":0.6,"AMZN":1.72,"GOOX":0.6,"AMZZ":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"AMZW":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"AMZD":0.6},"content_text":"Meet Luke Lango\t\t\n\n\n\n\n\nSpaceX is a great company — but great companies routinely make poor IPO buys: Facebook fell over 50% in its first three months public, Amazon dropped 90% from its dot-com peak, and Google tested investors with steep pullbacks before becoming a generational winner.\nMarket veteran Louis Navellier waits at least one year before buying any IPO — giving time for insider lockup periods to expire, four quarters of fundamentals to accumulate, and his Stock Grader system to assign a data-driven A-to-F ranking.\nInvesting in a Musk-led company means accepting Musk-level volatility: Tesla has demonstrated repeatedly that a single headline can move billions in market value, adding a layer of risk that has nothing to do with the underlying business.\n\n\n\n\n \n\nSource: Careto | stock.adobe.com\n\n\n\nListen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).\n\n➕ Follow Luke on X\n📺 Check out our podcast: Being Exponential\n\n\nEditor’s Note: SpaceX is finally public. And the FOMO is already building. But before you buy, Louis Navellier — who has been investing through major technology cycles for nearly five decades — wants you to ask one question: can you afford the volatility?\nIn today’s piece, Louis walks through three reasons he’s not buying SpaceX right now, despite believing it’s a wonderful company. It’s a masterclass in the difference between a great business and a great entry point — and a timely reminder that the best investors don’t just know what to buy. They know when.\nHe and TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan recently sat down to talk through all of it — including two free stock picks for the summer ahead. Watch the replay here.\nNow here’s Louis.\n\nIn 2017, legendary billionaire investor Ron Baron made a big bet.\nHis firm invested in SpaceX (SPCX) when the company was valued at less than $22 billion.\nNow, with SpaceX public, that bet could go down as one of the great investments in history. So, let’s give credit where credit is due.\nBut folks, before you think about buying SpaceX stock, you need to think about your risk tolerance and ask yourself:\nHow much risk can you stomach?\nA billionaire like Baron can make a huge, concentrated bet on Elon Musk. He can wait years for it to pay off. He can ride the ups and downs. He can afford to be early and patient.\nMost investors cannot afford to do any of those things.\nAnd that is the real lesson I want you to think about as SpaceX begins trading.\nSo, let’s talk about how investors should handle SpaceX now that it is public and the three reasons why I do not recommend buying SpaceX stock right now… and a new tool that can help you time the market better and make bigger gains – so you don’t have to ride the emotional roller coaster on the way to profits. \nReason No. 1: Great Companies Make Terrible IPO Buys — Just Ask Facebook\nNow, let me first say that I think SpaceX is a wonderful company. Starlink makes money. SpaceX makes money. But a great company can still be a risky stock if you buy it at the wrong price, at the wrong time.\nCase in point: Facebook, now known as Meta Platforms, Inc. (META).\nFacebook went public on May 18, 2012. At the time, it was one of the most anticipated IPOs Wall Street had seen in years. Investors were clamoring to get in. The stock was priced at $38. \nThe FOMO was real. Then reality set in. By August 2012, Facebook had fallen to about $17.50. That was a loss of more than 50% from the IPO price.\n\nNow, Facebook eventually became a tremendous long-term winner, up more than 1,300% since it first went public. But investors who chased the IPO still got taken to the woodshed.\nThat wasn’t some one-off case, either. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) became one of the greatest stocks of all time – but it first fell more than 90% from its dot-com peak. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), then Google, became a monster winner – but only after testing investors’ patience with steep pullbacks.\n\n\nBottom line: Great stocks do not move in a straight line.\nThat is why I have a simple rule when it comes to IPOs. I usually wait at least a year before I buy.\nThat may sound boring when everyone is talking about a stock that could soar on its first day of trading. But I have been doing this for nearly five decades, and I have learned that the best time to buy a great company is not always the first time Wall Street lets you buy it.\nWhen a company goes public, there is usually a lockup period for insiders. They cannot immediately sell their shares. But once that lockup expires, a lot of stock can come onto the market, creating selling pressure.\nWe saw something similar recently with another space-related stock, Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB). As excitement around SpaceX picked up, a lot of Rocket Lab insiders were cashing out. So do not be surprised if some SpaceX insiders eventually sell after their lockup period expires.\nReason No. 2: You Can’t Grade What You Can’t See Yet\nThe second reason I wait is to see the data.\nAfter a company has been public for a year, I can calculate reward-to-risk. I can look at alpha. I can study standard deviation. And I can get four quarters of fundamentals to see whether the stock fits my eight-factor fundamental model.\nIn other words, I can stop guessing. My Stock Grader tool can give it a simple ranking of A to F, giving my followers and me a clear understanding of whether to buy it.\nThat matters with SpaceX because it’s a complex business. You have the launch business. You have Starlink. And you have other long-term projects that could eventually become very valuable – or not. \nBut as an investor, I want to know which part of the business is driving the growth. That is one of the main reasons I am willing to wait. Right now, SpaceX’s future as a public company is still speculative. A year from now, we should have a much clearer picture.\nReason No. 3: When You Buy SpaceX Stock, You’re Also Buying Elon Musk’s Headlines\nI should also add the Elon Musk factor.\nI am not here to dispute the man’s genius. Elon Musk helped reinvent the auto industry. He helped restart America’s space ambitions. He built the world’s largest satellite internet network. He turned Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) into one of the most valuable companies on the planet. \nThat is an extraordinary record. But investors need to ask a very practical question: \nCan you afford the volatility that comes with Elon Musk?\nWhen you invest in a Musk-led company, you are not just investing in the business. You are also accepting the market’s reaction to Elon Musk himself. \nWe have seen that with Tesla. A single Musk headline can move billions of dollars in market value. His political comments, public battles and unpredictable behavior have all created added volatility around the stock at different times.\n\nThat does not erase what Musk has accomplished. But it does add another layer of risk.\nThe Smarter Trade This Summer: Here’s What to Do Instead\nThe reality is there is still a tremendous amount of money sloshing around. When I was on Maria Bartiromo’s Fox Business show recently, she pointed out that there is about $7 trillion in cash on the sidelines. \nSome of that money will naturally gravitate toward the market.\nHigh-profile IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic and eventually OpenAI could help pull more of that money into stocks. That is bullish for growth stocks and suggests investors still have a strong appetite for innovation.\nBut bullish does not mean blind, folks.\nJune is a seasonally strong month, helped by the annual Russell realignment. We should also have another great earnings announcement season kick off in July. But as we get into August and the first half of September, we’ve entered the seasonally weakest period for the market.\nSo, if we see drawdowns or stair-steps lower this summer, I will not be surprised.\nBottom line: This is still not a market where you can afford to guess or ignore your risk tolerance. You need to know what you own. You need to know what you are missing. And you need to know when to be aggressive – and when to be cautious.\nThat is exactly why I sat down with TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan earlier this week.\nDuring our special event, we discussed why today’s market reminds me of the late 1990s, why I believe the AI boom still has much further to run and how a new AI-powered tool could help investors become more tactical as volatility picks up this summer.\nIt works by taking my financial analysis, and combining it with a new system developed by my friends over at TradeSmith. And then it adds a revolutionary new form of AI to give investors the best possible shot at massive, rapid-fire gains.\nWe also share two stock picks – absolutely free.\nIf you missed it, you can watch the replay right here.\nI strongly encourage you to watch it as soon as you can.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSubmit\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n Luke Lango\nEditor, Hypergrowth Investing\n\n\nMeet Luke Lango\nBy uncovering early investments in hypergrowth industries, Luke Lango puts you on the ground-floor of world-changing megatrends.\n\n\n\n\n\t\t\t\tLearn more about Luke\t\t\t\n\n\n\n\n\nArticle printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2026/06/three-reasons-why-im-not-chasing-spacex-and-what-to-do-instead/.\n©2026 InvestorPlace Media, LLC","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2643414932","isCrawlerRequest":true}