New Zealand May Selected Price Indexes Reinforce Downside Risks to Q2 CPI Forecast, ANZ Research Says

MT Newswires Live06-16

The New Zealand selected price indexes for May came in broadly as expected, reinforcing the downside risks to the June quarter consumer price index (CPI) forecast, ANZ Research said in a note on Tuesday.

Food prices, accounting for nearly 19% of the CPI basket, rose 1% month over month, stronger than ANZ's outlook for a 0.3% increase. ANZ said the shock to global fertilizer supply stemming from the Middle East conflict, alongside higher freight costs, will likely add to global food price inflation.

ANZ downgraded its second quarter CPI projection to 1.5% from 1.8% quarter over quarter. This would see annual inflation come in at 4.1%, down from its previous forecast of 4.4%.

The medium-term inflation outlook will be a function of both the degree of demand destruction and inflation inertia stemming from the global supply shock caused by the Middle East conflict, ANZ said.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike the official cash rate by 25 basis points in July as the central bank prioritizes ensuring that the current surge in inflation does not broaden into core inflation over the medium term, ANZ added.

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