The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1159 ET - Alamos Gold has had a bout of bad luck as external events forced it to cut output guidance, but the company's Island Gold District remains a bright spot, National Bank's Don DeMarco says. The analyst notes that two seismic events at Young-Davidson "impacted access to higher-grade stopes," and storm-related outages caused "unplanned downtime," driving a 12% cut to 2Q production guidance and lower FY26 expectations. DeMarco says the setbacks are "transient, yet extend beyond 2Q," with mining rates easing to about 5,000 metric tons per day for the rest of the year. Still, he says that Island Gold is on track and continues to anchor the company's 2026 growth outlook. DeMarco cuts the stock's price target to C$80 from C$87. Shares are down 17% at C$42.64. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
0458 ET - Copper prices slip, leading falls in base metals as a hawkish turn from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers damps sentiment. Higher rates raise costs for copper importers, weighing on prices, ANZ Research analysts write. In early European trade, London copper slips 1.15% to $13,655 a metric ton. However, losses are limited by strong demand, the analysts say. The build out in data-center infrastructure critical for the development of artificial-intelligence is boosting consumption, they note. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0357 ET - Gold extends losses as investors continue to respond to U.S. Federal Reserve officials' more hawkish tone. A higher interest rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets like bullion. In early trading, New York futures are down 1.8% to $4,170.30 a troy ounce. "Gold is likely to remain under pressure in the near term as geopolitical risk premiums continue to fade and higher for longer interest rate expectations strengthen," MUFG's Soojin Kim writes. However, continued uncertainty around the pace of normalization for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will limit downside risk for gold, the analyst says. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0353 ET - Brent crude oil rises back above $80 a barrel after Vice President JD Vance called off plans to travel to Switzerland for peace talks with Iran. Brent crude rises 0.5% to $80.23 a barrel, while WTI is up 1.25% to $77.56 a barrel. Vance had been set to oversee a ceremonial deal signing with Tehran. "Market euphoria that a deal had been reached has shifted to some skepticism, as the deal is only interim and is not a peace treaty," XTB's Kathleen Brooks writes. Oil trade is likely to be choppy Friday, as the increased flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz jostles with concerns around the terms of peace, Brooks adds. Both benchmarks remain on track for sharp weekly declines.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
2243 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, tracking declines in soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, PhillipCapital says in a note. Weaker crude oil prices are also pressuring crude palm oil prices as weaker oil markets decrease palm oil's appeal as a biofuel alternative, it adds. PhillipCapital expects prices to face resistance at 4,680 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,350 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery is 9 ringgit lower at 4,564 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2238 ET - While the cost to build BHP's Jansen project continues to climb, the outlook for the potash mine once it is operating remains attractive, according to Citi. BHP continues to forecast unit costs of US$114-US$130/metric ton once the first two stages of the project are ramped up. That will make "the mine one of the world's lowest-cost potash operations," Citi says. BHP expects an underlying Ebitda margin for Jansen Stage 2 above 65% and an internal rate of return of 11%. Citi has a neutral rating and target price of 66.00 Australian dollars on BHP. Shares are down 3.7% at A$62.63. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2227 ET - Copper prices are lower in early trade. Prices will likely remain elevated through the second half as the market focuses on tightening supply instead of demand destruction, analysts say. Prices corrected modestly amid the Middle East conflict and uncertainty surrounding the change in the Fed's leadership, say CITIC Futures analysts in a note. However, underlying fundamentals for copper remain supportive. Global refined copper production is expected to slow sharply this year and China is expected to shift from a surplus to a tighter balance due to stronger domestic consumption and constrained concentrate availability, they add. The three-month LME copper contract is down 0.5% at $13,628.00 a ton.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2214 ET - Crude palm oil prices are projected to remain between 4,400 ringgit a ton and 4,650 ringgit a ton in July, supported by tightening supply prospects in Indonesia and growing concerns over El Nino, Malaysian Palm Oil Council says in a note. While plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia have not yet been affected, the risk of a stronger El Nino developing from July or August is rising, it says. A prolonged dry season could weigh on palm oil production with a lag of 9-12 months, it reckons. However, prices may be limited amid ample vegetable oil stockpiles in major importing countries and weaker biodiesel demand economics, with gasoil prices falling below palm oil prices in the futures market, it adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2213 ET - Morgan Stanley isn't particularly surprised by the size of the cost overrun at BHP's Jansen potash project. MS was already forecasting capex around US$6.6 billion for the project's second stage, it says. BHP now estimates the project will cost US$6.9 billion, up from US$4.9 billion previously. A delay to first production was flagged in January, although the new timeline of late FY31 is behind the bank's 1H FY31 expectation. Unit costs are unchanged in real terms, MS says. "We see limited incremental impact," says the bank. MS has an overweight rating and A$67.50 target on BHP. Shares are down 3.7% at A$62.62. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2159 ET - The cost overrun on BHP's Jansen stage-two project further erodes returns and underlines risks to the miner's organic-growth strategy, Barclays says. The bank expected capex of US$5.5 billion on the Jansen expansion project, which BHP now says will cost US$6.9 billion. BHP earlier forecast costs of US$4.9 billion, although "according to BHP, consensus was [about] US$6.5 billion," Barclays says. The overrun raises questions about how BHP will handle its pipeline of proposed growth projects in the coming years, says Barclays. "This could see management attempting to execute four major growth projects simultaneously [Jansen, Escondida, Vicuna, Copper SA new smelter] when it has been unable to manage the timeline and budget for one," the bank says. Shares are down 3.8% at A$62.55. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2022 ET - Gold falls in early Asian trade. The precious metal's price is being weighed down by a more hawkish Fed outweighing relief from the U.S.-Iran interim peace deal, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. Fed Chairman Warsh vowed to restore price stability after the central bank held rates earlier this week, and signaled growing support for interest rate hikes, ANZ adds. Spot gold is down 0.8% at $4,184.93 a troy ounce.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
1515 ET - Crude futures end the session little changed as euphoria over the agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eases, with the market considering it will take time to fully recover supply out of the Persian Gulf. "After spending months trading on disruption risk, crude is increasingly behaving like a market reassessing whether fundamentals support prices materially above current levels," Gelber & Associates says in a note. There is "a growing belief that global supply growth is beginning to outpace demand growth, particularly as OPEC+ barrels return and non-OPEC production remains resilient." WTI settles down 0.2% at $76.60 a barrel and Brent gains 0.4% to $79.85. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 19, 2026 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)
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