The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0649 GMT - The dollar rises to a one-year high against a basket of currencies, supported by expectations the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this year. The Fed on Wednesday left rates unchanged as expected but its latest projections suggested a rate rise was possible by year-end. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also emphasized policymakers were committed to bringing inflation back to the 2% target. The recent decline in oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran interim peace deal has lowered rate expectations for most currencies but this doesn't apply to the Fed, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. Investments in AI continue to drive growth in the U.S., he says. The DXY dollar index rises to a high of 101.127. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0647 GMT - The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.3% to close at a fresh record high of 71250.06 amid risk-on sentiment. The U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement "got 'oil flowing' and echoed positively across global markets, making investors forget about the previous day's surprise hawkish Federal Reserve announcement," Swissquote's senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in an email. Among top performers on Japan's benchmark index, Fujikura jumped 15.7%, Furukawa Electric climbed 15.1%, and Kioxia Holdings advanced 12.1%. The dollar was at 161.36 yen, compared with 161.38 yen late Thursday in New York. The 10-year JGB yield was 3 bps higher at 2.645%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0645 GMT - Japan's headline consumer inflation is still running above the central bank's 2% target when excluding government relief measures, BNP Paribas economists say. Government data released Friday showed the unadjusted figure remained below the 2% target in May. While gasoline prices are capped by government subsidies, increases in airfares and overseas package tours will begin to emerge in June and July, the economists say. Price increases are also expected to spread across plastic products like shopping bags and packaged foods, they add. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0638 GMT - Indonesia is still expected to retain its emerging market status by MSCI Inc., despite the index provider's latest review, says Maybank Sekuritas' Jeffrosenberg Chen Lim in an email. MSCI flags more concerns about Indonesia's market, including the limited transparency of shareholding structures and indications of coordinated trading that undermines proper pricing. MSCI's focus seems to have shifted from technical market access issues to trust and governance concerns, which are often more difficult and time-consuming to address. Even if Indonesia avoids a downgrade, it could remain under security until regulators show meaningful improvement in transparency, disclosure standards and market surveillance. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0610 GMT - The euro faces a higher risk of falling below the $1.1390-$1.1410 support area, based on charts, says Quek Ser Leang of UOB's global economics and markets research in a report. The senior technical strategist cites the "impulsive nature" of the euro's recent decline against the dollar. Should this weekly support zone of $1.1390-$1.1410 give way, the next technical target is $1.1210, the strategist says. In the near term, $1.1530 is already a firm resistance level, the strategist adds. The euro is 0.2% lower at $1.1433, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0558 GMT - German Bunds look set to remain stuck in a range with yields trading less directional to oil prices, Commerzbank Research's Rainer Guntermann and Erik Liem say in a note. The macro calendar is sparse and impulse from U.S. Treasurys won't come either due to the Juneteenth holiday. The 2.92% mark still serves as a soft floor before more macro stimulus arrives next week, the rates strategists say. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 2.92% on Thursday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0550 GMT - Current market conviction around Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes in 2026 appears "somewhat aggressive", says UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele in a note. UBS GWM continues to recommend exposure to short- to medium-term duration quality bonds. The combination of a new Fed regime under Chairman Kevin Warsh, hawkish projections and a wide dispersion of views implies a higher bar for near-term action in either direction, Haefele says. "In our view, this points to an extended period of policy on hold, with meaningful adjustments more likely once the task force process is complete, and the Committee has greater clarity on the economic outlook." Money markets price in approximately 38 basis points of Fed rate hike this year, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0530 GMT - The Federal Reserve might still cut interest rates this year, even as the likelihood is small, says Navellier & Associates' Louis Navellier in a note. "Due to the fact that market rates have declined a bit and might fall further as energy prices fizzle, I am still holding out for a Fed key interest rate cut later this year, but I am in a small minority," he says. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh confirmed that the Fed's forward guidance has been dropped, which is his first big stamp on the FOMC, Navellier says. Money markets currently price in 38 basis points of interest-rate hikes by the Fed through year end, according to LSEG.(emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0526 GMT - The German Finance Agency's third-quarter issuance update on June 25 is expected to broadly maintain headline bond supply and flexibility via short-term instruments, Citi's Puja Sawant says in a note. Ten-year Bunds should be dominating supply in the third quarter, while net cash requirement should peak in July before a seasonal slowdown in the fourth quarter, the rates strategist says. "Beyond 2026, we forecast gross bond issuance to trend higher into the 365 billion euros-415 billion euros range, while net cash requirement remains elevated, but broadly stable over 2027-30," she says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0520 GMT - The summer environment could prove favorable for carry trades in eurozone government bonds, provided the U.S.-Iran deal holds, Barclays's rates strategists say in a note. The supply is set to see a seasonal slowdown, and even after the summer, issuance volumes should remain contained relative to earlier in the year, they say. "We project gross issuance rising sharply, to approximately 140 billion euros, in September, but this remains far below January's total just below 200 billion euros," the strategists say. September's estimated net issuance total of approximately 60 billion euros should also remain far below January's approximately 130 billion euros, they say. "This largely reflects the fact that the bulk of anticipated syndicated supply for 2026 has already materialized." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0517 GMT - SMBC now sees a "firm-to-stronger" U.S. dollar against Asian currencies in 2H, says Jeff Ng, head of Asia macro strategy, in a research report. "Market expectations have now shifted" toward a potential Fed rate increase, Ng says. The Fed at its June FOMC meeting turned hawkish, confirming SMBC's expectations that the Fed will have to focus on combating inflation. SMBC sees the Singapore dollar potentially weakening against its U.S. counterpart even as it stays strong on a Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate basis. Also, this trend will probably mean another round of headwinds for the Indian rupee, Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah. Moreover, the Malaysian ringgit, Korean won and Thai baht will likely "suffer" from widening yield differential pressures, Ng adds. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0511 GMT - Any sizable changes to the German Finance Agency's 3Q debt issuance calendar against its preliminary plans would be a surprise, Barclays' rates strategists say in a note. The German Finance Agency is scheduled to publish its quarterly funding review on June 25. It had previously indicated 'a high likelihood' that the 2026 issuance calendar would be executed without major intra-year adjustments, the strategists say. The agency made no changes to 2Q funding plan versus the preliminary plans. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 19, 2026 02:49 ET (06:49 GMT)
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