By Rebecca Feng, Georgi Kantchev and Joe Wallace
The U.S.-Iran peace deal was meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease one of the biggest supply disruptions in decades. So far, progress has been slow.
Shipping traffic through the waterway appeared to slow Friday after the peace process hit two bumps: fighting in Lebanon and postponed talks in Switzerland.
Oil prices ticked up but stayed near their lowest levels since the early days of the war at just over $80 a barrel. Brent crude is on track to fall more than 8% over the course of the week, in anticipation that the U.S.-Iran deal -- signed by President Trump on Wednesday -- will eventually unleash oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf.
Under the pact, Iran should have already lifted its chokehold on the strait and be arranging for the safe passage of commercial vessels. To date, the "memorandum of understanding" looks more like the opening of a release valve than a floodgate.
Are ships now moving in the Persian Gulf?
After an uptick in the number of tankers sailing through the strait in both directions Thursday, traffic dwindled Friday, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler, shipping executives and sailors.
Some seafarers on ships attempting to pass through the waterway said they were turned back by the Iranian navy, and told to apply for an exit permit.
"We were scheduled to cross but were told [via radio] that the situation has changed and we will be intercepted if we try to move out of the strait," one Greek tanker owner said.
On Friday, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority -- an organization created by Iran in May to regulate transit through the waterway -- said that all vessels wishing to make the crossing must submit an application 48 hours before arriving in the area. The authority said transits would be free of charge during the 60-day period laid out in the peace deal.
Kpler data showed seven tankers sailing out of the Persian Gulf and six entering on Thursday. That was the highest number since June 1 and third-highest of the war. As of 8:15 a.m. ET on Friday, four tankers had gone in and none had sailed out.
Other vessels are preparing to make the voyage. Sailors on ships in the Gulf said they were refueling and loading up with food.
How quickly can the Strait of Hormuz get back to normal?
Assuming no setbacks, traffic could return to around 50% of prewar levels -- roughly 50 to 60 ships a day -- in a month, according to analysts at Kpler.
Oil flows around the world have changed dramatically since February, so many ships will need to reposition before exporting Persian Gulf crude and fuel. Some vessels in the region will have to change crews or wait for port s to reopen fully.
Seafarers also need assurances that mines have been removed and clear guidance on toll payments, said Sheila Cameron, chief executive of the Lloyd's Market Association, which represents Lloyd's underwriters.
Tankers will likely hug the Omani and Iranian coastlines to avoid any mines in the strait's central channel, said Phillip Belcher, marine director at industry association Intertanko. That could cap the number of daily voyages.
When will oil stuck in the Persian Gulf get to market?
Even after traffic picks up, it will take weeks for oil to arrive at faraway buyers. Assuming the strait reopens in late June, supply relief wouldn't materialize until late August and there wouldn't be a meaningful normalization until September, according to Michael Haigh, head of commodities research at French bank Société Générale.
Meanwhile, he said, oil consumers will keep drawing down depleted inventories.
Has the U.S. naval blockade been lifted?
Under the peace deal, the U.S. agreed to start removing its naval blockade immediately and end the blockade within 30 days.
Signs of loosening emerged even before the agreement was signed. Three tankers carrying more than 5 million barrels of Iranian crude left the port of Chabahar and crossed the U.S. blockade line Tuesday, with more Iranian-flagged vessels crossing the blockade line since then.
One of the tankers that sailed into the Gulf on Friday flew the Iranian flag, according to Kpler.
When will oil production get back up to prewar levels?
Oil producers in the Middle East slashed production early in the war. Restoring it to precrisis levels could take four to six months, according to analysis by Francis Osborne, head of oil analytics at Argus Media.
The hardest fields to get pumping again are in Iraq and Kuwait. Many overseas workers left the region. Wells clog up with paraffin and asphalt-like substances when they are not producing. At some older fields, more water and natural gas -- and less oil -- is likely to emerge from the ground.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer by far, will have a better time, having carefully managed the pressure of their fields down the decades.
How much demand will come from rebuilding depleted inventories?
Global inventories plunged by about 350 million barrels -- around 3.5 days of global oil use -- over March, April and May, according to the International Energy Agency.
U.S. oil executives say it could take months to replenish the country's inventories. At the current pace of drawdowns, America's strategic reserve will have about 243 million barrels by early September, compared with its 2009 peak of more than 700 million barrels.
Restocking adds to demand, possibly leaving prices higher than they otherwise would have been.
Write to Rebecca Feng at rebecca.feng@wsj.com, Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com and Joe Wallace at joe.wallace@wsj.com
This explanatory article may be periodically updated.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 19, 2026 10:12 ET (14:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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