Vail Resorts' 2026 Outlook Softer on Visitation, Pass Sales Pressure, UBS Securities Says

MT Newswires Live06-18 21:44

Vail Resorts (MTN) is facing modest pressure across earnings and demand trends, with management reducing its fiscal 2026 net income and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization guidance, UBS Securities said in a note Thursday.

The investment firm lowered its full-year EBITDA estimate to $752 million from $767 million, while keeping it within the company's guidance range of $735 million to $755 million.

Analysts attributed the revision to a softer fiscal Q3 and weaker seasonal trends, with fiscal Q4 EBITDA now seen at a $116 million loss versus prior estimates, alongside softer pass sales and lift ticket demand volatility.

The firm cut its fiscal 2027 EBITDA estimate to $882 million from $892 million, citing a weaker fiscal 2026 base and ongoing uncertainty in pass sales and visitation, and also flagged softer 2026 net income and EPS pressure from seasonal and cost timing.

Investor focus remains on whether lift ticket growth and improved pricing can offset weaker pass units, with upside tied to normalization in ski conditions and a return toward 2025-level visitation trends under stable weather, according to the note.

UBS Securities maintained its neutral rating on the stock with a price target of $139.

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