The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1409 ET - At his first meeting as Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh quickly began to make good on his promise to reshape Fed communications. After the meeting, the Fed released a much abbreviated policy statement that offers no forward guidance about what the Fed's next move might be. Instead, it tersely observes that "economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty." This choice for concision circumvents a debate that had animated conflict at the Fed's April meeting: Whether to maintain or abandon an "easing bias" in the Fed's forward guidance despite rising inflation. (Now, there is simply no forward guidance at all). The new policy statement also omits a previous convention of naming how each Fed official voted. Instead, it just says that the statement itself was approved unanimously by the FOMC. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1404 ET - The Fed's dot plot turned sharply more hawkish at the June meeting, versus the most meeting when the Fed released one, in March. Eighteen policymakers participated in the dot plot; one official, possibly Chairman Kevin Warsh, did not. Of those 18, nine said they expect at least one rate hike to be appropriate this year. In March, none held that view. Eight officials think rates should hold steady this year, and one anticipates a single rate cut. Warsh has criticized the dot plot and many analysts had anticipated he might not participate. His new colleagues on the Fed are nonetheless using the dot plot to send a strongly hawkish signal. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1402 ET - Even in a terse policy statement, Fed officials went out of their way to signal continuity on Fed balance-sheet policy. "The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system," the statement reads in part, a hint that Wednesday's meeting ended without a substantial change to how the Fed will handle its bond holdings. Recent policy statements have often excluded any mention of balance-sheet policy. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1347 ET - Ahead of the interest rate decision in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chairman, markets will watch whether Warsh delivers remarks reflecting the committee's current view on the path of interest rates. In recent months, the committee has leaned more hawkish because inflation remains above their target as energy prices have pushed price pressures higher. In April, three members supported holding rates steady but dissented against the easing bias in the policy statement, which suggested the next move would be a cut, rather than a hike. Warsh has been critical of forward guidance, and some economists predict he will not submit a dot in the summary of economic projections released by the Fed. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1324 ET - Canada's third straight quarter of population decline changes the macroeconomic math for the Bank of Canada, says Taylor Schleich and Daren King, economists at National Bank of Canada. The population fell 0.5% in 1Q from a year ago, reflecting sharply curtailed immigration intake and aging demographics. This is weighing on aggregate GDP growth--but the bank economists note that per-capita GDP rose nearly 1% annualized in 1Q versus the aggregate 0.1% drop. Further, NBC estimates per-capita GDP could grow by nearly 3% in 2Q, or the fastest such pace in about four years. Declining population also alleviates inflationary pressure, and that's reflected in the softness in home prices and rents, the economists add. "It means more core-inflation relief is coming," NBC says. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1318 ET - Royal Bank of Canada's tracking of cardholder spending beyond autos and at the pumps cooled in May but remained positive. The bank's estimate of core Canadian retail sales growth eased to 0.7% from April's 1.2% on a three-month average. Higher gasoline prices continued to absorb a larger share of household budgets for the month, and a limited pullback in spending by consumers on other goods and services implies households continue for now to dip into savings or increase borrowing to keep spending, RBC says. Its tracking shows essentials' spending rose 1.1% in May and was up 1.3% on a three-month average, while discretionary spending increased 1% and was up 0.7% on a three-month average. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1158 ET - Carbon removal coalition Frontier got $915 million in new funding, with participation from big tech companies like Stripe, Google, Shopify, Salesforce and Anthropic, as well as clothing company H&M Group. Frontier is an advance market commitment, meaning it gets companies to pledge ahead of time that they will buy carbon removal down the line, sending a signal to researchers, entrepreneurs, and investors that there is ample demand for those technologies to accelerate their development. The new funding takes Frontier's total commitment to $1.8 billion, Frontier says. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1142 ET - Bitfinex calls the recent recovery in bitcoin a "complacency bounce," as it stalled out below $65,000 and looks to remain rangebound until something new happens. Bitcoin has recovered over 13% since finding a low around $59,200, but macroeconomics don't seem to support an extended run in bitcoin, Bitfinex says. "Beneath the price, the market has reset rather than re-accelerated," the firm says. Bitcoin is down 0.8% to $65,208, ahead of the Fed decision this afternoon. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1136 ET - Major cryptocurrencies are pulling back from recent gains ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision and guidance on the interest rate. Bitcoin falls 0.9% to $65,177, while ethereum is down 2.1% to $1,758, XRP drops 1.8% to $1.20, and solana is down 1.7% to $72.78. Traders are cautious ahead of the announcement this afternoon, with the potential for commentary from Fed chair Kevin Warsh to move the market. "While markets expect interest rates to remain unchanged, any indication that policymakers are more concerned about inflation could drive yields higher and increase pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin," says Konstantinos Chrysikos with Kudotrade in a note. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1116 ET - Oxford Economics expects core inflation in Canada to remain below 2% for the rest of 2026. Economist Michael Davenport says the call reflects excess spare capacity in the economy, slowing population growth, and business and household uncertainty tied to U.S. trade policy, the Mideast conflict, the deployment of AI. For the Bank of Canada to raise rates this year, Davenport says there would need to be "clear signs of inflation broadening" across the CPI basket and rising longer-term inflation expectations. The firm is penciling in a half-point rise in the BOC's policy rate in 1H of 2027, but Davenport says that's contingent on success trade negotiation between Washington and Ottawa. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
1054 ET - The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged on Thursday, with its backdrop more favorable than most other central banks, but two aspects will be closely watched, ING's Charlotte de Montpellier says in a note. Firstly, the SNB's medium-term inflation projections, which if revised downward could signal renewed concern about deflationary pressures once the impact of recent energy price increases fades, she says. Should they be revised upward, it would carry limited implications for monetary policy. Secondly, any comments on foreign-exchange interventions. The franc has appreciated in the past year, although upward pressures have eased since early March, when the SNB explicitly indicated a greater willingness to intervene, she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1024 ET - Brazil's central bank is likely to cut interest rates today, while cranking up hawkish guidance, Citi analysts write. The BCB is expected to cut its Selic rate to 14.25% from 14.5%, but sticky inflation could get in the way. Citi expects the bank to stop cutting in September, with a 13.75% Selic. With inflation running above the 3% target, "we should expect the monetary authority to escalate the hawkish tone of its communication," Citi says. The analysts expect the BCB to set a more data-dependent approach. The Brazilian real strengthens 0.5% against the dollar. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 17, 2026 14:09 ET (18:09 GMT)
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