The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1540 ET - The Knicks' championship run seems to have New Yorkers opening up their wallets. Bank of America analysts, analyzing the bank's credit and debit card data, find "a notable lift in restaurant and bar spending across the city as the series progressed." NYC bar and restaurant spending rose 5.3% year-over-year in the week ending June 13, compared to a 3.8% increase nationwide. The ongoing FIFA World Cup 2026 tournament may also have a similar effect, they write, as it prompts friends to gather and watch the matches together over food and drinks. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1430 ET - CoinMarketCap's "Crypto Fear and Greed Index" will likely close the shortened business week showing "extreme fear" among investors. The index is currently showing a score of 19 out-of 100, which is just at the cutoff between "fear" and "extreme fear." The index did move into "fear" earlier this week, but selling after hawkish commentary from new Fed Chair Warsh is weighing on cryptocurrencies. CoinMarketCap's data also shows a continued flow of money out of so-called "altcoins," or tokens beside bitcoin and stablecoins that trade on crypto exchanges. After a brief period posting gains, combined altcoin market capitalization is just above $900 billion, says CoinMarketCap. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1324 ET - Businesses polled by Oxford Economics are skeptical about a rapid resolution to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the firm says in a note. More than two-fifths of those that responded to the survey following the announcement of the U.S.-Iran agreement expect transit through the strait to remain below pre-war levels the rest of this year and into 2027. Businesses still expect subdued global growth in the near term, but have become less concerned about the possibility of severe economic fallout from the conflict. "The perceived risk of a global recession has fallen back towards the level seen immediately before the outbreak of the war," says Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford Economics. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1256 ET - Canada's economic outlook is contingent on capitalizing on its expertise in the energy field and producing critical minerals, says Desjardins Group chief economist Jimmy Jean. He says foreign-investor interest appears strong at present due to its vast oil-and-gas reserves. Jean says Canada can no longer rely on attracting investors as a tariff-free gateway to the US. "What Canada must achieve goes beyond the prevailing self-congratulatory rhetoric: transforming its comparative advantages--clean energy, resources, expertise--into new production capacity," Jean says. Foreigners are also gobbling up Canadian securities at an historically high pace. He says it would be a mistake in Canada to treat the present optimism as an "unconditional vote of confidence in Canada's ability to deliver." (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1227 ET - Open interest in derivatives for bitcoin and ethereum -- the two leading cryptocurrencies -- trading on Binance saw a "sharp leverage reset", says Amr Taha of CryptoQuant in a note. After the announcement of the interest rate staying unchanged, bitcoin open interest fell 18% and ethereum open interest fell 25%, says Taha. "The simultaneous decline across both BTC and ETH suggests a broader reduction in risk appetite across Binance's derivatives market," says Taha. "Traders likely chose to close positions before and after the Fed announcement rather than carry leverage into a potentially volatile market reaction." Risk reduction has continued into today, with bitcoin down 2.9% to $62,463 and ethereum down 3.6% to $1,683. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1151 ET - Treasury yields move slightly lower as markets continue to adjust to Kevin Warsh's first meeting as the new Fed chairman. The FOMC kept rates on hold and removed so-called forward guidance from the statement. "Dangerously high levels of inflation suggest additional accommodation is now off the table, thus a removal of the lingering easing bias from the statement was not only appropriate, but a necessary step as at least the conversation for rate hikes becomes more pronounced," says Stifel's economics team in a note. As for the labor market, employers are holding back from widespread layoffs. U.S. jobless claims fell to 226,000 last week from an upwardly revised 230,000. The 10-year yield is at 4.43%, down from 4.46% Wednesday. The two-year is little changed at 4.16%. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1142 ET - The outcome of the special election in the Makerfield district on Thursday could provide investors an early signal on the potential direction of U.K. politics, eToro's Lale Akoner says in a note. Andy Burnham, a possible challenger to U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is vying in the special election and opinion polls suggest that he is the leading candidate. Burnham's policies are expected to increase public spending and push up inflation. "A result that fuels expectations of higher future spending could put upward pressure on bond yields," Akoner says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1042 ET - Andy Burnham, a potential challenger for role of U.K. leader, is viewed negatively to neutrally by U.K. investors, Peel Hunt's Kallum Pickering says in a note. Opinion polls suggest that Burnham is likely to win Thursday's special election in Makerfield district, where he is standing for a parliamentary role. Although he is popular with the Labour party grassroots supporters, it is "unclear whether his regional approach would translate effectively to national policy," Pickering says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1035 ET - The BOE could keep interest rates on hold in the coming months, but an interest rate increase can't be counted out, eToro's Lale Akoner says in a note. The BOE left rates unchanged at 3.75% at Thursday's decision, arguing that a weak U.K. economic outlook justifies the decision. "With inflation still expected to remain above target into next year, the risk of another rate increase has not disappeared entirely," Akoner says. Investors fully price in the possibility of one BOE interest rate hike in 2026, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1029 ET - The Bank of England's decision to hold its key rate at 3.75% points to a prolonged pause ahead, with a cut likely to be the next move, ING's James Smith says in a note. "There's nothing in today's decision that changes our mind that the next move is likely to be a rate cut in 2027," he says. It could take a lot for the BOE's five neutral-to-dovish policymakers to vote for a hike, as they appear confident that second-round inflation effects are unlikely, Smith says. If the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal holds and energy prices stay at current levels, inflation will likely peak at 3.5% this year. That's below the 4% threshold BOE research suggested could trigger persistent price pressures, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1025 ET - Yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, along with comments from new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, continue to reverberate in the cryptocurrency market. "Bitcoin could remain at risk of further losses after the Federal Reserve signalled a more hawkish tilt following its latest monetary policy decision," says Joseph Dahrieh of Tickmill in a note. Hedge funds are still pulling back from bitcoin ETFs, according to data from CoinGlass--with the total net outflow seen at $82.2 million yesterday. Bitcoin is down 1% to $63,710, according to LSEG data, while ethereum falls 0.9%, XRP is down 2.7% to $1.15, and solana slides 1.7% to $70.81. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1016 ET - The Bank of England could resume interest-rate cuts before the end of 2026, Andrew Wishart at Berenberg says in a note. Inflation coming in lower than expected in May show limited risks of indirect effects from the energy-price shock, he says. Meanwhile the scale and duration of the shock caused by war in Iran look set to be significantly smaller than the central bank anticipated, Wishart says. A weak labor market is hindering wage growth, which has already fallen below the pace consistent with 2% inflation, he says. "While the [monetary policy committee] will likely remain split, we think that enough members are relaxed enough about inflation and worried enough about the labor market to deliver a cut by year end." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 18, 2026 15:40 ET (19:40 GMT)
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