The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
1011 ET - U.A.E. stocks extend gains after the U.S. and Iran signed a deal aimed at ending the war. Real-estate and banking stocks lead with both major Emirati indexes now recovering major conflict-related losses to trade above last year's levels, says Chiro Ghosh of SICO Bank. The Dubai Financial Market General Index gains 2.5%, Abu Dhabi's benchmark index rises 1.2% while Qatar's QE Index falls 0.6%. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0929 ET -- Jefferies Financial's stock has already priced in a sharp rebound in advisory and capital-markets activity, says UBS analyst Michael Brown, who downgrades the stock to neutral from buy. The downgrade comes amid what Brown sees as limited upside after a 50% quarter-over-quarter rally. The analyst notes that the valuation now "appropriately reflects elevated advisory and ECM expectations." While Brown's 2Q EPS estimate jumped on stronger deal activity, he says his longer-term forecasts rose only modestly because a robust recovery is already embedded in consensus. With the "stubbornly gradual pace" of sponsor-driven M&A and lingering credit risks, Brown says "upside [is] limited at current levels, with much already priced into EPS." UBS upgrades the target price to $67 from $59. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
0516 ET - The Fed's hawkish tone from the FOMC statement suggests inflation risks aren't fading even if the Iran conflict ends and energy flows normalize, Syfe's head of investment and advisory Ritesh Ganeriwal says. While a rate hike remains possible this year, the move is far from certain and the bar is high, Ganeriwal says, noting the Fed may find less reason to hike if a U.S.-Iran peace deal holds and oil prices stay lower. The U.S. dollar may also weaken, Syfe adds, pointing to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh saying he lacks conviction in the committee's own economic forecast. Bonds now offer returns that "genuinely compete with stocks for the first time in years," it says. "Every month on the sidelines is income left on the table," it adds. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0407 ET - Japan's consumer inflation likely held its pace of growth in May, according to a poll of economists by data provider Quick. Government data due Friday is expected to show consumer prices, excluding fresh food, rose 1.4% from a year earlier, the poll indicates. That would match the pace recorded in April. Mixed component dynamics saw cooling food inflation offset by the expiration of utility subsidies, the economists say. While the headline figure sits below the BOJ's 2% target, it is unlikely to derail the bank's tightening path. The BOJ raised rates to 1% earlier this week, citing supply-chain cost pass-throughs and the possibility that they will spill over to broader consumer items. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0258 ET - Japan's Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.6% to an all-time high of 71053.49, closing above the 70000 threshold for the first time. Electronics stocks led gains as optimism continued over the U.S.-Iran peace deal and growing demand for artificial intelligence. Murata Manufacturing gained 8.1% and Tokyo Electron advanced 4.7%. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield gained 1.5 bps to 2.615%. The dollar is at 160.63 yen, little changed from Y160.64 as of Wednesday 5 p.m. Eastern time. Investors are focused on developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
0231 ET - Japan's domestic investment cycle could be damaged if fears over a weakening yen drive the Bank of Japan into a premature rate hike and the government hesitates on strategic investments, says Credit Agricole economist Takuji Aida. That could cause Japan to fall behind in the global industrial policy race, triggering a vicious cycle of unstoppable yen depreciation fueled by concerns over a long-term erosion of the country's supply capacity, he says. "A potential driver of yen weakness could be the risk of fracturing the domestic investment cycle, caused by a lack of policy coordination as the BOJ rushes into premature rate hikes due to concerns over short-term inflation spikes," he adds. The dollar last stood at 160.62 yen.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0042 ET - Tisco Financial Group's 2Q net profit is estimated to rise 2.0% on year, thanks to a growing loan portfolio and declining credit costs, says UOB Kay Hian's Thanawat Thangchadakorn in a note. Loans are likely to grow due to seasonally high loan demand, the analyst says. The Thai lender also set aside special provisions in 1Q to prepare for any drag from the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices, the analyst adds, and 2Q costs could therefore drop by 31 bps on quarter to 100 bps. UOB KH's projection of 95 bps in 2026 credit costs remains below the company's target range of 100-110 bps. The brokerage maintains a hold rating and 110.00 baht target price. Shares rise 1.3% to 117.00 baht. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
2324 ET - Bank Indonesia and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas are likely to each increase interest rates by 25 bps later Thursday, OCBC Group Research analysts say in a note. The Fed's decision to hold rates likely suggests to these Southeast Asian central banks that capital flow volatility will persist in the near term, with their decision still guided by inflation and macroeconomic stability considerations. BI's expected rate hike would be in line with its efforts to prevent market sentiment from worsening, OCBC notes.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
2308 ET - Future Federal Reserve policy will likely be the dominant driver for the dollar-yen as the pair remains stuck past 160 despite the BOJ's recent rate hike, says Nomura Research Institute economist Takahide Kiuchi. The latest Fed dot plot doesn't yet fully capture the fall in oil prices following progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks, Kiuchi notes. While lower energy costs are expected to quickly drag down U.S. retail gasoline costs, trends in non-energy prices will likely dictate the path of Fed policy going forward, he says. "Market volatility could escalate if the Fed, under Chairman Warsh, scales back communication on future monetary policy, lowering visibility in the financial markets," he adds.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
2234 ET - Indonesian equity valuations are likely to be supported by rupiah stabilization as currency is a key driver for market sentiment, DBS analysts say in a report. Concerns over narrowing trade surpluses, high oil prices and Indonesia's new export scheme have pressured the rupiah and equities, they say. Lower oil prices, easing geopolitical tensions and policy support from Bank Indonesia could help stabilize the rupiah, DBS says, as it lowers its end-2026 forecast for the Jakarta Composite Index to 8000 from 9500, citing uncertainties from a weak rupiah. The JCI is 1.1% lower at 6152.59.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
2232 ET - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain a steady tightening path toward an ultimate terminal rate of 2.0%, says Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management strategist Masahiro Ichikawa. He expects the BOJ to deliver another 25bp rate hike in October, followed by further tightening in March and September 2027 and March 2028. While the Overnight Index Swap market currently reflects about an 80% probability of an additional hike within this year, Ichikawa says market pricing still has room to adjust further upward to fully reflect this tightening path. The BOJ raised rates to 1% earlier this week and reiterated its commitment to seek further hikes. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
2207 ET - Indonesia is likely to face easing macroeconomic pressures amid the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Maybank Sekuritas analysts say in a report. "As these [oil] flows recover, global inventories should stabilize and the risk premium in energy prices should ease," they add. The impact from the waterway's reopening is important for Indonesia as a net energy importer. Lower energy prices should reduce pressure on Indonesia's trade balance, fiscal subsidies, inflation and the rupiah. The country's domestic sectors' outlook has also been lifted, as lower geopolitical risk premiums ease energy costs, support the rupiah and reduce fiscal pressures.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 18, 2026 16:50 ET (20:50 GMT)
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