The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1944 ET - Japanese stocks may fall following their recent sharp gains to record highs driven by hopes for the U.S.-Iran peace deal. Nikkei futures are down 0.6% at 69070 on the SGX. The dollar is at 160.40 yen, compared with Y160.23 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on details of the U.S.-Iran agreement as well as crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.1% to a record 69404.50 on Tuesday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1650 ET - Around 16% of companies surveyed by the Bank of Mexico expect a positive impact on demand from the soccer World Cup under way in the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Among companies in Mexico with more than 100 employees, 11.9% in the manufacturing sector expected an increase in demand, and 18.3% in services sectors. Expectations were higher in the three states where games are being played--Jalisco, Nuevo Leon and Mexico City--although "the evidence points to economic effects extending beyond host states, particularly toward beach resorts," the central bank says. Goods likely to see greater demand, according to the survey conducted in April, include food and beverages, World Cup-related sports clothing and flat screens. Businesses involved in hotels, restaurants, transport, financial services, streaming services and broadband also expected to see a benefit. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1541 ET - Treasury yields have their second consecutive decline since the U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement, although details remain unclear. WTI crude falls 6%, potentially easing inflation fears. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow, while a price hike sometime this year is still priced in by futures markets. May retail sales growth is expected to keep April's 0.5% pace, in a WSJ consensus. The 10-year yield slips 0.042 percentage point to 4.427%. The two-year declines 0.017 p.p. to 4.046%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1521 ET - Oil futures fall for a fourth straight session as the U.S.-Iran agreement raises expectations of a quick recovery in oil flows out of the Middle East. Reports that Qatar could restore much of its lost LNG production in a couple of months "may be a signal that damage to infrastructure in the war might not be as bad as some feared," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. Across the region, "much disruption stemmed from logistics/shipping fears rather than irreparable physical destruction." Downward price pressure from returning barrels would be offset by expectations of demand recovery "and the reality that any supply flood won't be unlimited," Flynn adds. WTI settles down 5.8% at $76.05 a barrel and Brent falls 5.1% to $78.96. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1458 ET - U.S. natural gas futures rise for a third straight session with support from higher LNG feedgas flows post-maintenance. "That support is helping offset a still mixed weather setup, where heat in parts of the South and West is being balanced by milder conditions across much of the eastern half of the country," Gelber & Associates says ina note. The rally still faces pushback from healthy supply and storage levels that are above the historical average, the firm adds. Nymex natural gas for July delivery settles up 2.9% at $3.239/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1417 ET - Brazil's central bank is expected to trim its hefty policy rate tomorrow by a quarter of a percent, to a still restrictive 14.25%, Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar and Karina Mayer write. The BCB, however, is "boxed in by a tight labor market that's boosting wage growth (good for consumers) and unit labor costs (bad for businesses)," Lazar and Mayer say. A high-spending government complicates matters, ahead of October's elections. Incumbent Lula da Silva polls ahead of his right-wing opponent Flavio Bolsonaro, but whoever wins will face a debt load too high for an emerging market, Lazar and Mayer say. The Brazilian real weakens 0.4% against the dollar. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1408 ET - Prime Minister Mark Carney's Davos speech encouraging middle-power multilateralism may not have sat well with some in the U.S., but shouldn't be viewed as presenting an "either or" path, Royal Bank CEO Mark McKay says. "I was in the room in Davos, and the way I took it and the way I think it's kind of rolled out over the last six months is very much an aspiration to diversify the economy," he tells a Bloomberg TV event in Toronto. The U.S. will remain Canada's largest and strongest partner and the USMCA trade pact is expected to be renewed, however bilateral agreements will grow that diversify Canada's trade partnerships in a multipolar world, McKay says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
1406 ET - The North American trade pact is too important to the U.S., Canada and Mexico to cancel, Royal Bank CEO Dave McKay reckons. McKay at a fireside chat in Toronto says the relationship between Canada and the U.S. remains strong, embedded in hundreds of billions of dollars in two-way trade. The countries are going through a process of renegotiating USMCA and McKays says that while this is a protracted process each nation is making progress is understanding the changes other administrations need. "There's been no mention of canceling the agreement...There's a big difference between termination and cancellation," he says, explaining would mean not extending USMCA for six years from 2036 while cancellation means giving notice of a permanent withdrawal. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
1357 ET - Treasury yields fall further as oil prices slip below $80 on hopes of normalized traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of a Fed rate decision. Details of an announced U.S.-Iran deal remain unknown, but the prospect of a regular supply of crude eases inflation fears. A cautious market, however, still prices in a Fed hike sometime this year, following tomorrow's expected hold. New Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to change the way policymakers communicate with the public, which could lead to volatility in bond markets used to a steady flow of forecasts and Fedspeak. The WSJ Dollar Index slips 0.1%. 10-year yield is at 4.426%, the lowest in over a month. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1304 ET - Approximately half of the 20 million circulating bitcoin is unprofitable, says Cex.io in a note. Even with bitcoin stabilizing around the low-$60k area, roughly 10 million bitcoin market-wide is still worth less than when it was originally minted or purchased. "The underlying picture has not healed and half of Bitcoin supply is still sitting at losses," says the firm, adding that even with this in mind, bitcoin may not have found its lowest price levels. The amount of bitcoin with unrealized losses echoes conditions seen in 2018 and 2022, both major bear markets, Cex.io says. But the firm also notes that the outflow of money from bitcoin ETFs has slowed down significantly. Bitcoin is down 1.1% to $65,724. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1114 ET - A recently departed senior Bank of Canada official says "the most likely scenario" is no change in the central bank's main interest rate this year. Rhys Mendes, who left the BOC's governing council in April, tells a KPMG Canada economics podcast that the economy is treading water. "There is slack in the economy, clearly," he says. "It'll still take time for the slack in the economy to be absorbed. And I think that gives the Bank of Canada some extra breathing room to wait and see." Mendes remarks were recorded on June 12, or before crude-oil prices fell on a breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran. Lower crude-oil prices could alleviate concerns about a further acceleration in inflation. (paul.vieira@wsj.com)
1111 ET - Cryptocurrency is paring yesterday's gains, driven in part by cutting risk ahead of the first FOMC meeting led by new Fed chair Kevin Warsh. The outlook on interest rates has changed greatly, with the market now expecting rate hikes in the future. For cryptocurrency, it appears that momentum coming from the peace deal announced over the weekend in the U.S.-Iran conflict has quickly expired. Even with higher prices yesterday, bitcoin ETFs showed a net outflow of roughly $65 million, showing that hedge funds are still hands-off when it comes to the top cryptocurrency. Bitcoin falls 1.4% to $65,535, ethereum slides 2.2% to $1,775, XRP is down 4.2% to $1.21, and solana falls 3% to $72.62. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 16, 2026 19:44 ET (23:44 GMT)
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