Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0550 ET - The U.S.-Iran agreement could support Middle East tourism, helping restore traveler confidence and improve perceptions of safety, says Carlos Cendra of the Data Appeal Company. The deal would also limit the regional spillover that often weighs on destinations not directly involved in a conflict, he says. Western Asia's scheduled international air capacity for May and June was 10.1% below pre-conflict levels, and the first sign of recovery is likely to appear in travel intent before bookings fully normalize, he says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0549 ET - Iran's oil production is poised to rebound more quickly than that of its Gulf neighbors following the U.S.-Iran deal, says Homayoun Falakshahi from Kpler. Unlike other regional producers, Iranian wells aren't damaged and its tanker fleet isn't facing significant bottlenecks, so lifting the U.S. naval blockade could be enough to restart exports and drive a swift recovery in production and loadings. "Iranian crude exports are likely to recover faster than other Gulf producers, increasing availability of medium sour barrels into China, and other markets depending on the waiver," Falakshahi says. "Production may come back stronger than prewar levels in the short-term." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0516 ET - The Fed's hawkish tone from the FOMC statement suggests inflation risks aren't fading even if the Iran conflict ends and energy flows normalize, Syfe's head of investment and advisory Ritesh Ganeriwal says. While a rate hike remains possible this year, the move is far from certain and the bar is high, Ganeriwal says, noting the Fed may find less reason to hike if a U.S.-Iran peace deal holds and oil prices stay lower. The U.S. dollar may also weaken, Syfe adds, pointing to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh saying he lacks conviction in the committee's own economic forecast. Bonds now offer returns that "genuinely compete with stocks for the first time in years," it says. "Every month on the sidelines is income left on the table," it adds. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0359 ET - Base metals fall in early trading after President Trump signed the Iran deal, easing fears over prolonged supply disruptions and their impact on the global economy. Three-month copper futures on the LME fall 0.8% to $13,726 a metric ton, while aluminum is down 0.5% to $3,406 a ton. Weaker economic activity in China is also weighing on the demand outlook for industrial metals. "Aluminium fundamentals are mixed, with strong Chinese supply and rising stocks offsetting Middle East supply risks," analysts at ANZ say. "Copper remains relatively supported by tight mine and concentrate supply alongside solid Chinese restocking demand." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0326 ET-European indexes are mixed at the open as investors digest a hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve and the signing of a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war. Rate-sensitive software stocks slide, while some energy-sensitive stocks rally on falling oil prices. The Stoxx 600 slips 0.1%. London's FTSE 100 falls 0.7% as oil majors falter, while house builders fall sharply with Persimmon down 5.45%. Precious metals miners fall, with Fresnillo down 3.2%. The French CAC 40 is flat as gains for industrials--Schneider Electric is up 1.7%--counter a slip in luxuries. Germany's industrial-heavy DAX climbs 0.25%, led by semiconductor manufacturer Infineon Technologies--up 4.55%. The Dutch AEX slips 0.3% as software stocks slide, despite modest gains for semiconductor stocks. Cross-listed Relx falls 2%. The Italian FTSE MIB rises 0.2%. Spain's IBEX 35 slips 0.15% as software group Amadeus slides 2.1%.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0323 ET - European energy stocks are down as oil prices fall after President Trump signed an interim agreement to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz--a key waterway through which a fifth of the world's oil is transported. London's Shell and BP are each down around 1.1%, while France's TotalEnergies is down 0.7% and Italy's Eni falls around 0.6%. In early European trading, Brent crude slides 2.3% to $77.71 a barrel, while WTI is down 2.5% to $74.08 a barrel. Both benchmarks have fallen roughly 15% so far this week. "Trump has said the memorandum is in effect, but there is uncertainty over how quickly Iran will fully restore shipping," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly writes. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0258 ET - Oil prices fall more than 2% after President Trump signed an agreement to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes for a gradual normalization of flows and return of Iranian barrels to the market. "While the industry remains cautious about the pace of normalization, some tankers have already resumed movements and exporters such as Iraq are preparing to increase shipments," analysts at MUFG say. While the prospect of additional supply has erased most geopolitical risk premium, global inventories remain tight, particularly in the U.S., where crude stockpiles were down by 8.3 million barrels last week. In early European trading, Brent crude slides 2.3% to $77.71 a barrel, while WTI is down 2.5% to $74.08 a barrel. Both benchmarks have fallen roughly 15% so far this week. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0225 ET - Eurozone government bond yields open slightly lower, tracking the direction of U.S. Treasury yields. The falls come as U.S. President Trump signed the U.S.-Iran deal on Wednesday, while the Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold, in line with expectations, and dropped its easing bias. "The Iran Memorandum of Understanding is finally signed, but a Fed rate hike this year remains in play," Commerzbank's Erik Liem says in a note. Government bond supply will come from Spain and France. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 1.5 basis points to 2.927%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0104 ET - The Trump administration's move to restrict access of foreign entities to Anthropic's top AI model is seen to be unsustainable, Jefferies analysts say in a research note. It is difficult to implement such strict access and could hurt the U.S. AI system, the analysts say. "Many AI researchers and engineers in the U.S. are foreign-born. Blocking them from frontier models could slow research progress or push some talent and usage overseas, which is not what the US government wants," they say. The restrictions on Anthropic's Fable 5 is also unlikely to see meaningful market impact for Chinese companies, they say, noting Anthropic's other models that aren't facing U.S. restrictions still deliver top-level performance. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
2308 ET - Future Federal Reserve policy will likely be the dominant driver for the dollar-yen as the pair remains stuck past 160 despite the BOJ's recent rate hike, says Nomura Research Institute economist Takahide Kiuchi. The latest Fed dot plot doesn't yet fully capture the fall in oil prices following progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks, Kiuchi notes. While lower energy costs are expected to quickly drag down U.S. retail gasoline costs, trends in non-energy prices will likely dictate the path of Fed policy going forward, he says. "Market volatility could escalate if the Fed, under Chairman Warsh, scales back communication on future monetary policy, lowering visibility in the financial markets," he adds.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
2200 ET - If inflation prompts the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, it will likely increase tightening pressure on the Bank of Japan, says SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Ataru Okumura. As the wide interest-rate differential with the U.S. has been a core driver of yen weakness, any renewed global tightening risks exposing the BOJ's relative slowness in rate hikes, Okumura notes. While fears over the Japanese government's currency interventions may prevent the dollar-yen from surging far past 160, investors doubt the sustainability of such measures, he says. "Thus, the BOJ will likely be forced into raising interest rates at a slightly accelerated pace," he adds. The dollar was last trading at 160.64 yen.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
1556 ET - Canadian authorities and economic forecasters are "in a state of denial" regarding the risks to the U.S.-Canada trading relationship, says a former Canadian official and big-bank economist. Don Drummond, once chief economist at TD Bank, tells WSJ he's worried complacency has set in. He says forecasters have assumed the current effective US tariff rate on Canadian goods won't increase further. "That doesn't seem like a straightforward likely bet to me," says Drummond, also a former senior official at Canada's treasury. He says the deals President Trump has cut with countries include a flat tariff on all exports. Canada is seeking relief on hefty tariffs of up to 50% on certain industrial groups, while maintaining most of the USMCA treaty. Trump says he may not be keen on keeping the trade treaty. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 18, 2026 05:50 ET (09:50 GMT)
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