The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1027 GMT - The U.A.E. is set to be one of the largest contributors to non-OPEC+ supply growth next year after it quit the cartel, the IEA says. The Paris-based agency forecasts the country's oil production will rise by 730,000 barrels a day, reaching 5.2 million barrels per day. "With its departure from OPEC+ and associated quota limits, output is expected to converge more closely with installed capacity going forward," the IEA said. "The U.A.E.'s deep domestic resources and evolving export capabilities position the country to effectively increase production into 2027 independent of an agreement on opening Hormuz." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1015 GMT - With U.K. inflation undershooting expectations, holding at 2.8% in May, the sting from the Iran conflict looks less than markets initially assumed, Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja says in a note. "This could give the Bank of England some pause for thought. Indeed, it could buy [policymakers] more time to assess the risks around so-called second round effects," he says. Despite rising energy costs, retailers remain hesitant to price in any cost pass-through, Raja notes. And with the tentative U.S.-Iran agreement, oil prices are already around 10% below last month's market assumptions. The Ofgem regulated price cap could be lower rather than higher come October 2026, bringing much-needed relief for U.K. households and businesses, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1007 GMT - The details of the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal are a positive development for the euro-dollar exchange rate, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The deal includes financial incentives for Iran to wind down the conflict with the U.S. allowing Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel upon signing the agreeing this week, the WSJ reports. These incentives makes the fall in oil prices look more sustainable and therefore reduce the "downside risks" for the euro versus the dollar, he says. However, the exchange rate's direction also depends on any clues from the Federal Reserve about its interest rate path when it announces its decision at 1800 GMT, he says. The euro trades steady at $1.1602. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1006 GMT - Any bounce back in global oil demand after the Gulf shock is expected to be uneven across products, the IEA says. LPG, ethane, and jet fuel are likely to experience the strongest rebound, similar to the surge in demand seen after the Covid-19 pandemic. Demand for LPG and ethane will be supported by the replenishment of depleted polymer inventories, the re-entry of Middle Eastern petrochemical producers into global markets, and the competitive advantage of U.S. manufacturers benefiting from lower-cost feedstocks, according to the agency. In contrast, the outlook for gasoil and gasoline remains less certain. The IEA says a full recovery might be constrained by lingering economic effects from disruptions and the increasing availability of alternative technologies in road transport, particularly in China. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0915 GMT - The Federal Reserve's policy decision at 1800 GMT could test the dollar's resilience to lower oil prices after the U.S. and Iran agreed an interim peace deal, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The dollar needs confirmation that policymakers, especially new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, are open to raising rates in future even if rates are held steady Wednesday, he says. "If Warsh or the broader Federal Open Market Committee signal a stance that is clearly at odds with market pricing, the dollar would sell off sharply." However, removing the policy easing bias should be enough to support the currency, he says. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 99.561. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0859 GMT - Energy flows should normalize quickly following the interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, Julius Baer's Norbert Rucker says. Oil's sharp drop below $80 "seems to come from the financial market and the swift shifts in futures positioning by the speedy money from hedge funds, algorithm traders, and their likes," Rucker says. Still, limited infrastructure damage and continued energy production during the conflict should support a swift supply recovery. Trade through the Strait of Hormuz has already gradually picked up and alternative export routes have been in full use. Julius Baer says energy markets appear to be moving toward oversupply, and holds a cautious view on oil and a neutral view on natural gas. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0821 GMT - Norwegian energy major Equinor's spending on lower-carbon projects is set to be lower than envisaged a few years ago, RBC Capital Markets analysts Biraj Borkhataria and Adnan Dhanani write after Tuesday's strategic update. It is shifting its focus toward sustaining fossil fuel production on the Norwegian continental shelf and growing its international upstream portfolio, they add. The company's underlying margins should improve as it produces more barrels internationally, which should support higher free cash flow, they add. The analysts keep their underperform rating on the stock. Shares fall 2.1% to 317 kroner. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0736 GMT - European energy stocks open lower as oil prices continue to slide ahead of the signing of an interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which is expected to get oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the agreement, the U.S. will allow Iran to start selling oil and fuel once the deal to end the conflict is signed on Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported. This pushes Brent down 1.1% to $78.08 a barrel, while WTI falls 0.4% to $75.47 a barrel. In London, BP falls 1.1% and Shell drops 0.9%. France's TotalEnergies is 1.3% lower while Italy's Eni slides 1.6%. Norway's Equinor is down just over 2%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0732 GMT - Sariguna Primatirta is likely to post strong net profit after tax growth of 19% in 2026, Nomura's Heng Siong Kong says in a research report. Drivers include the pure-water products producer's sales volume expansion. Nomura sees a shift in Indonesia's consumption habits from boiled water to packaged water among demographics that seek standardized hygiene and relatively affordable pricing. Another driver is the company's year-to-date increase in average selling prices by 6%. However, Nomura cuts its 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts for the company by 8% and 2%, respectively, to reflect higher packaging cost pressures. It lowers the stock's target price to 620.00 rupiah from 680.00 rupiah with an unchanged buy rating. Shares are 1.0% lower at 388.00 rupiah. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0720 GMT - Bitcoin falls modestly as investors show caution towards risky assets ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision at 1800 GMT. Markets are nearly fully pricing in no change in rates, according to LSEG data, but the focus is on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's stance on future policy. Warsh is likely to lean towards the center of the Federal Reserve Open Committee by not arguing for rate cuts or ruling out rate rises either, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. Meanwhile, Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said a peace deal with the U.S. depends on Israel withdrawing from Lebanon and, without this, the war hasn't fully ended. Bitcoin falls 0.4% to $65,522, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0646 GMT - Optical fiber sector is likely to benefit from China's AI data center expansion, according to BofA Securities in a research note. Optical fiber demand is shifting from telecom to AI, driving strong growth in high-end segments, the analysts say. "While overall supply is sufficient, constraints in preform capacity are tightening availability of high-spec fiber and supporting pricing," they say. BofA has a buy rating on Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology on fiber price upside, subsea recovery, and grid growth. Shares last traded at 54.12 yuan. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0636 GMT - Inflation remaining unchanged in May will almost certainly mean no interest-rate rise on Thursday from the Bank of England, Joe Nellis at MHA says in a note. Annual inflation was 2.8% in May, in line with the prior month and below forecasts. "The Bank is continuing to hold their nerve, as they monitor the difficult, ongoing trade-off between keeping inflation under control and avoiding further damage to an economy," Nellis says. The BOE may not have to raise rates at all this year, with inflation likely to stay below 4% if peace holds in the Middle East. Still, inflation is likely to edge higher over coming months, even if Middle East tensions are resolved quickly, Nellis adds. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 17, 2026 06:27 ET (10:27 GMT)
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