Gold drops below $4,300/oz as Fed votes 12-0 in favor of rate hold, but nearly half of policymakers see a rate hike in 2026

Kitco06-17

(Kitco News) – The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote under new chair Kevin Warsh was unanimous in favor of a rate hold, as expected by the...

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believe a rate hike will be warranted in 2026.“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate,” the Federal Reserve said in their statement. “The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.”“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East,” the central bank said. “Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” the statement acknowledged. “The Committee will deliver price stability.”The Fed statement did not include any guidance about future rate moves.All 12 FOMC members voted in favor of maintaining rates unchanged, including newly appointed chair Kevin Warsh as well as Trump’s second-term appointee Stephen Miran, who has dissented in favor of a rate cut at every prior meeting since joining the FOMC.Gold prices dropped sharply in the wake of the announcement, with spot gold last trading at $4,290.52 per ounce for a loss of 0.94% on the session.The unanimity displayed at today’s meeting is unlikely to persist, however, as the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SOP) showed that nine of the central bank's 19 policymakers expect that a rate hike will be necessary in calendar year 2026. None had that view just three months ago, when the Fed last published its projections. At the time that the March SOP was published, none saw a rate hike this year. Moreover, six out of the nine – nearly one-third of the committee – believe one quarter-point rate hike will not be enough to get inflation moving sustainably back toward the Fed’s 2% target. Eight Fed policymakers indicated they expected rates would remain unchanged, while only one believed a single rate cut would be justified in 2026.One policymaker did not submit their view on the projected rate path, and though they were not named, the abstainer is widely believed to be Warsh, as he has been a frequent critic of the forward guidance included in the Fed's forecasts.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.0","shortVersion":"4.44.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2644726860","isCrawlerRequest":true}