Fed's Warsh Day: What History Says Comes Next To The S&P 500

Benzinga_recent_news06-17 21:56

Kevin Warsh makes his debut at the helm of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, as the central bank wraps a policy meeting with markets broadly expecting rates to stay on hold at 3.50%-3.75%. While all ...

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Yellen inherited a maturing bull market and a strengthening recovery, and her dovish, continuity-first message reassured investors that the Fed would taper its bond buying only gradually while keeping rates pinned near zero — removing a major source of uncertainty.\nThe lone decline belonged to Alan Greenspan, down 3.4%. Greenspan was simply unlucky with timing.\nThree months out, only four of seven episodes were positive, dragging the average to a negative 1.5%. \nThat figure is heavily skewed by the 27.4% collapse that followed Greenspan’s start, as the market endured the October 1987 crash — a selloff driven by stretched valuations, portfolio insurance and program trading far more than by monetary policy. \nIn other words, it was less a Fed event than a market accident.\nSix months on, four episodes were again positive, with an average return of 2.5%.\nGreenspan’s era kept the worst outcome at -23.2%, while the strongest belonged to G. William Miller, with the S&P 500 up 21.6% half a year after his March 1978 arrival.\nA year out, the greens outweigh the reds by six to one. The only negative came under Greenspan, with the S&P 500 still more than 20% below its level a year after he took over in August 1987. The best 12-month return again went to Yellen, with the index up 17.7%.\nNotably, the last three Fed Chairs — Ben Bernanke, Yellen and Jerome Powell — all presided over a higher S&P 500 one year into their tenure.\nStrip out the 1987 crash, which had little to do with who was running the Fed, and the pattern is clear: a new Fed Chair has historically been more friend than foe to the stock market. \nFor Warsh, history sets a constructive — if not guaranteed — starting point.\nPhoto: Rawpixel.com / Shutterstock.com\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.0","shortVersion":"4.44.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2644742557","isCrawlerRequest":true}