Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Price Pullback After 1-Year Rally Raises Valuation Questions

Simply Wall St.06-17 18:35

If you are wondering whether Exxon Mobil stock still offers value at current levels, the key is to separate price action from underlying worth. The share price last closed at US$141.86, after rising ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2644748972?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/406338-main-header/1756211648508","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-06-17 18:35","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2644748972","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Price Pullback After 1-Year Rally Raises Valuation Questions","media":"Simply Wall St.","content":"<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Exxon Mobil stock still offers value at current levels, the key is to separate price action from underlying worth. The share price last closed at US$141.86, after rising ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/energy/nyse-xom/exxon-mobil/news/exxon-mobil-xom-stock-price-pullback-after-1-year-rally-rais\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Price Pullback After 1-Year Rally Raises Valuation Questions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Price Pullback After 1-Year Rally Raises Valuation Questions\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-17 18:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/energy/nyse-xom/exxon-mobil/news/exxon-mobil-xom-stock-price-pullback-after-1-year-rally-rais><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Exxon Mobil stock still offers value at current levels, the key is to separate price action from underlying worth. The share price last closed at US$141.86, after rising ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/energy/nyse-xom/exxon-mobil/news/exxon-mobil-xom-stock-price-pullback-after-1-year-rally-rais\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0985489474.SGD","symbol_name":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/energy/nyse-xom/exxon-mobil/news/exxon-mobil-xom-stock-price-pullback-after-1-year-rally-rais","article_id":"2644748972","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/406338-main-header/1756211648508"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/energy/nyse-xom/exxon-mobil/news/exxon-mobil-xom-stock-price-pullback-after-1-year-rally-rais","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2644748972","pubTimestamp":1781692553,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Exxon Mobil stock still offers value at current levels, the key is to separate price action from underlying worth.\nThe share price last closed at US$141.86, after rising 15.7% year to date and 28.4% over the past year, even though it has declined 10.2% over the past month and 4.7% over the past week.\nRecent attention on Exxon Mobil has focused on its position in the global energy sector and how investors are weighing long term demand for oil and gas against the...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0300736062.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1582986433.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) INC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SG9999014559.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0122376428.USD":"贝莱德世界能源基金A2","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU1035773651.USD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU1489326972.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-MD SGD-H","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","SG9999002521.SGD":"United Global Resources A Acc SGD","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","XOM":"埃克森美孚","LU2498475776.HKD":"AMUNDI FUNDS REAL ASSETS TARGET INCOME \"A2\" (HKD) INC","LU1582986359.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0266512127.USD":"摩根大通环球自然资源 A(acc)","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","XOMZ":"1倍做空XOM ETF-Direxion","LU2357627491.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"AH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0278409577.USD":"MANULIFE GLOBAL FUND-GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","XOMO":"XOM期权收益策略ETF-Yieldmax","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345780950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","XOMX":"2倍做多XOM ETF-Direxion","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2129689431.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0070217475.USD":"JPM GLOBAL SELECT EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU1150488135.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi Income Builder AHS-MD SGD-H","LU0456854461.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Natural Resources A (acc) SGD","LU0612318971.USD":"BGF NATURAL RESOURCES \"A5G\" (USD) INC"},"translate_title":"埃克森美孚(XOM)股价在一年上涨后回调引发估值问题","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"XOMZ":0.6,"XOM":1.5,"XOMX":0.6,"XOMO":0.6},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Exxon Mobil stock still offers value at current levels, the key is to separate price action from underlying worth. The share price last closed at US$141.86, after rising 15.7% year to date and 28.4% over the past year, even though it has declined 10.2% over the past month and 4.7% over the past week. Recent attention on Exxon Mobil has focused on its position in the global energy sector and how investors are weighing long term demand for oil and gas against the shift toward lower carbon alternatives. These themes have shaped sentiment around the stock and provide context for the mix of shorter term pullbacks and longer horizon gains. On Simply Wall St's valuation checklist, Exxon Mobil currently has a value score of 4 out of 6. This suggests some measures point to the stock trading below estimated worth. The next sections will walk through those methods and then outline a broader way to think about valuation that goes beyond the individual models.  Exxon Mobil delivered 28.4% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Oil and Gas industry. AdvertisementApproach 1: Exxon Mobil Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis The Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what Exxon Mobil stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. It anchors the valuation on the cash the company is expected to generate for shareholders over time. Exxon Mobil’s latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about US$23.0b. Using analyst projections for the next few years, then extending those estimates further out, Simply Wall St’s 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model forecasts Free Cash Flow rising to US$55.3b in 2035. These extended projections beyond the analyst horizon are extrapolations based on the model’s assumptions rather than additional analyst forecasts. When those future cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model points to an estimated intrinsic value of US$274.15 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$141.86, this implies the stock trades at about a 48.3% discount to that intrinsic value. This indicates that, under the assumptions of the cash flow model, the current market price is materially below the model’s estimated value. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Exxon Mobil is undervalued by 48.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 44 more high quality undervalued stocks. XOM Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Exxon Mobil. Approach 2: Exxon Mobil Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like Exxon Mobil, the P/E ratio is a useful way to link the share price to the earnings that support it. You are essentially asking how many dollars you are paying for each dollar of profit. What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E depends on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty can justify a lower one. Exxon Mobil currently trades on a P/E of 23.23x. This sits above the Oil and Gas industry average P/E of 13.07x, while the peer group average is 34.07x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Exxon Mobil is 29.30x. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks. Because it adjusts for these fundamentals, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with industry or peer averages. With the current P/E of 23.23x below the Fair Ratio of 29.30x, according to this metric Exxon Mobil stock appears undervalued on this basis. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:XOM P/E Ratio as at Jun 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 20 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Exxon Mobil Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. This is where Narratives come in as a simple way for you to connect your view of Exxon Mobil’s story with the numbers you think are reasonable for future revenue, earnings and margins, which then flow through to a Fair Value you can compare with today’s price. A Narrative on Simply Wall St’s Community page is essentially your version of the Exxon Mobil story written into a forecast. You make clear assumptions, such as how much Guyana, lower carbon solutions or cost control might matter, and the platform turns those inputs into a Fair Value that sits alongside the current share price so you can decide whether the stock looks attractive, fully priced or expensive to you. Because Narratives on the platform are updated when new information like news, earnings or guidance arrives, you do not need to rebuild your view from scratch. You can see how other investors’ Narratives differ. For example, one Narrative might anchor on a Fair Value of US$132.00 while another sits closer to US$195.00, reflecting different expectations about Exxon Mobil’s future earnings, margins and appropriate P/E multiple. For Exxon Mobil however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Exxon Mobil Narratives: 🐂 Exxon Mobil Bull Case Fair value: US$174.00 per share Implied discount to this fair value: about 18.5% below the narrative fair value Revenue growth assumption: 12.97%  The author focuses heavily on Exxon Mobil’s 45% stake in Guyana’s Stabroek Block, highlighting low production costs and meaningful projected profit contributions. The narrative sets out detailed assumptions around inflation, oil prices, production volumes and capital allocation, then links these to earnings per share estimates. Using these inputs, the author arrives at a fair value of US$174, framed within base, bull and bear scenarios and supported by discussion of balance sheet strength and shareholder returns.  🐻 Exxon Mobil Bear Case Fair value: US$132.00 per share Implied premium to this fair value: about 7.5% above the narrative fair value Revenue growth assumption: 6.5%  This narrative points to a fair value of US$132 based on a DCF model, using Exxon Mobil’s cash flow profile, the Pioneer acquisition and Low Carbon Solutions business as key inputs. The author emphasizes low cost upstream assets in the Permian and Guyana, significant planned buybacks, dividend history and a low net debt position as core parts of the thesis. At the same time, the analysis highlights risks such as commodity price swings, ESG and reputational concerns and uncertainty around long term oil demand.  If these previews resonate with how you see Exxon Mobil stock, you can use them as a starting point. You can then fine tune your own assumptions on revenue, margins and capital returns to build a Narrative that fits your view and risk tolerance. To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Exxon Mobil on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. Do you think there's more to the story for Exxon Mobil? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:XOM 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Exxon Mobil might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.0","shortVersion":"4.44.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2644748972","isCrawlerRequest":true}