The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1417 ET - Brazil's central bank is expected to trim its hefty policy rate tomorrow by a quarter of a percent, to a still restrictive 14.25%, Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar and Karina Mayer write. The BCB, however, is "boxed in by a tight labor market that's boosting wage growth (good for consumers) and unit labor costs (bad for businesses)," Lazar and Mayer say. A high-spending government complicates matters, ahead of October's elections. Incumbent Lula da Silva polls ahead of his right-wing opponent Flavio Bolsonaro, but whoever wins will face a debt load too high for an emerging market, Lazar and Mayer say. The Brazilian real weakens 0.4% against the dollar. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1408 ET - Prime Minister Mark Carney's Davos speech encouraging middle-power multilateralism may not have sat well with some in the U.S., but shouldn't be viewed as presenting an "either or" path, Royal Bank CEO Mark McKay says. "I was in the room in Davos, and the way I took it and the way I think it's kind of rolled out over the last six months is very much an aspiration to diversify the economy," he tells a Bloomberg TV event in Toronto. The U.S. will remain Canada's largest and strongest partner and the USMCA trade pact is expected to be renewed, however bilateral agreements will grow that diversify Canada's trade partnerships in a multipolar world, McKay says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
1406 ET - The North American trade pact is too important to the U.S., Canada and Mexico to cancel, Royal Bank CEO Dave McKay reckons. McKay at a fireside chat in Toronto says the relationship between Canada and the U.S. remains strong, embedded in hundreds of billions of dollars in two-way trade. The countries are going through a process of renegotiating USMCA and McKays says that while this is a protracted process each nation is making progress is understanding the changes other administrations need. "There's been no mention of canceling the agreement...There's a big difference between termination and cancellation," he says, explaining would mean not extending USMCA for six years from 2036 while cancellation means giving notice of a permanent withdrawal. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
1357 ET - Treasury yields fall further as oil prices slip below $80 on hopes of normalized traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of a Fed rate decision. Details of an announced U.S.-Iran deal remain unknown, but the prospect of a regular supply of crude eases inflation fears. A cautious market, however, still prices in a Fed hike sometime this year, following tomorrow's expected hold. New Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to change the way policymakers communicate with the public, which could lead to volatility in bond markets used to a steady flow of forecasts and Fedspeak. The WSJ Dollar Index slips 0.1%. 10-year yield is at 4.426%, the lowest in over a month. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1304 ET - Approximately half of the 20 million circulating bitcoin is unprofitable, says Cex.io in a note. Even with bitcoin stabilizing around the low-$60k area, roughly 10 million bitcoin market-wide is still worth less than when it was originally minted or purchased. "The underlying picture has not healed and half of Bitcoin supply is still sitting at losses," says the firm, adding that even with this in mind, bitcoin may not have found its lowest price levels. The amount of bitcoin with unrealized losses echoes conditions seen in 2018 and 2022, both major bear markets, Cex.io says. But the firm also notes that the outflow of money from bitcoin ETFs has slowed down significantly. Bitcoin is down 1.1% to $65,724. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1114 ET - A recently departed senior Bank of Canada official says "the most likely scenario" is no change in the central bank's main interest rate this year. Rhys Mendes, who left the BOC's governing council in April, tells a KPMG Canada economics podcast that the economy is treading water. "There is slack in the economy, clearly," he says. "It'll still take time for the slack in the economy to be absorbed. And I think that gives the Bank of Canada some extra breathing room to wait and see." Mendes remarks were recorded on June 12, or before crude-oil prices fell on a breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran. Lower crude-oil prices could alleviate concerns about a further acceleration in inflation. (paul.vieira@wsj.com)
1111 ET - Cryptocurrency is paring yesterday's gains, driven in part by cutting risk ahead of the first FOMC meeting led by new Fed chair Kevin Warsh. The outlook on interest rates has changed greatly, with the market now expecting rate hikes in the future. For cryptocurrency, it appears that momentum coming from the peace deal announced over the weekend in the U.S.-Iran conflict has quickly expired. Even with higher prices yesterday, bitcoin ETFs showed a net outflow of roughly $65 million, showing that hedge funds are still hands-off when it comes to the top cryptocurrency. Bitcoin falls 1.4% to $65,535, ethereum slides 2.2% to $1,775, XRP is down 4.2% to $1.21, and solana falls 3% to $72.62. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1105 ET - The U.K. has a relatively long average sovereign debt maturity profile of around 13 years, which supports its favorable credit rating, says James Longsdon, Fitch Ratings' global group head of sovereign and supranational ratings. Speaking at the FT Global Bond Summit in London, he saysa shorter average debt maturity makes an issuing nation vulnerable to shocks and negatively affects ratings. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1105 ET - In May, the national median asking rent fell to $1,686, Realtor.com says. That's 1.5% lower year-over-year, and the 34th consecutive month of declines. But some cities are holding onto their renters, while others are being defined by the people moving in from somewhere else. Local loyalty reflects renters finding real value close to home as rents soften. Conversely, strong job opportunities and relative affordability are pulling in renters from across the country, who are willing to pack up and move to a new place. Las Vegas leads the nation in local renter loyalty. In 1Q, 70% of online rental searches by Las Vegas residents stayed within the metro. Raleigh attracted the highest share of out-of-market rental demand in 1Q, with 69.1% of rental views coming from outside the metro. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1056 ET - The Hungarian forint could reverse part of its rally as Prime Minster Peter Magyar faces challenges in dismantling the legacy left by his predecessor Viktor Orban, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. The forint earlier reached its highest level against the euro since September 2021 after Hungarian lawmakers voted to limit prime ministers' terms in office to eight years, blocking Orban's return. "Over time, though, Magyar will have to manoeuvre a more demanding space comprising deeply entrenched right-wing networks and the judiciary, which will be legally complex and time-consuming." The euro rises 0.1% to 349.52 after earlier reaching as low as 347.71 and Commerzbank expects it to trade between 350-360 over the coming quarter. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1031 ET - Interest in sustainability bonds remains strong among both issuers and investors, Frank Rizzoli, BNP Paribas' head of ESG financing advisory, says at the FT Global Bond Summit in London. In 2026, sustainability bond issuance could reach the levels posted in 2024 when new supply reached a record high, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1031 ET - Debt issuance to finance AI and data center is likely to remain hot, JPMorgan analysts write. Loans average 85% of projects' cost, a high ratio likely to drive total AI expenditures to $5.5 trillion through 2030, with $4.1 trillion debt-financed, JPM says. Debt-issuers are expected to tap into "every single capital market" in various countries to support their growth needs. Top players, or hyperscalers, are profitable enough to keep investors calm amid the rising issuance. JPM suspects they are borrowing so much now so they can preserve their massive piles of cash, in case the economy worsens and borrowing costs spike. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 16, 2026 14:17 ET (18:17 GMT)
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