The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1200 ET - The uptick seen in CBOT wheat futures appears linked to traders covering short positions in wheat in favor of opening new long positions in soybeans, says Brian Grete of Commstock Investments. "The soy complex seems like the safest markets for them to hold length," says Grete. For wheat, the surge in short-covering comes even though yesterday's Crop Progress report from the USDA showed slight improvements to winter wheat quality. But the 2-point improvement to winter wheat in good or excellent condition still leaves that total under 30% - which is still not a good showing and would indicate weak yields. Most-active CBOT soybeans are up 0.8%, while wheat rises 0.9% and corn falls 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1124 ET - U.S. row crops planted this spring seem ready to hit the hottest months of the year in good condition, says Michael Cordonnier of Soybean & Corn Advisor in a note. "I realize it is early in the growing season to make yield adjustments, but without any threatening weather on the horizon, it looks like the crop will enter the critical July period under favorable conditions," says Cordonnier, regarding corn. He raises its yield outlook for corn up 1 bushel an acre to 182 bpa, while soybean yields are seen rising 0.5 bpa to 52.5 bpa. Cordonnier adds that grain markets are awaiting the USDA planting report at the end of the month to solidify 2026 balance sheets. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1025 ET - Grain traders are revved up on the possibility of China returning to purchasing U.S. soybean exports, confirming previous White House announcements that claim China agreed to buy more U.S. agricultural goods -- if a major transaction does get confirmed. "The market reaction highlights just how sensitive soybean prices remain to any indication of Chinese buying interest," says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull Trading in a note. "However, the distinction between inquiries and purchases is important." If nothing is ultimately confirmed, then the surge in prices will likely reverse. Soybeans are up 1.1% in morning trade. Corn rises 0.6% and wheat is up 2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1009 ET - Live cattle futures are up 0.8% in early trading, with livestock traders moving faster in the shortened week, says AgResource in a note. The firm adds that a "firm" outlook is expected to be seen throughout the morning. Markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Juneteenth, reopening on Monday. Also supporting cattle is lower crude oil futures, with light crude down 3.8% to around $77.70 a barrel - their lowest since early March, according to data from FactSet. The higher oil prices due to the war have been seen as crimping consumer demand for costly beef. Lean hog futures are up 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0953 ET - The USDA's latest Crop Progress report showed a one-point improvement in corn and soybeans in good or excellent condition -- which pressured those futures overnight. The USDA says that 68% of U.S. corn is good or excellent, while 66% of soybeans are good or excellent. The weather outlook remains supportive for a strong start to crop growth, meaning large harvests this fall. "Fundamental aid is thin for the grains right now with '26 crops once again developing nicely, and a beneficial extended forecast on tap to get those crops through June without major issues," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. However, CBOT corn and soybeans have turned positive at the open of trading, with corn up 0.5% and soybeans up 0.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0838 ET - Crude futures continue their retreat on expectations the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding will lead to more oil flowing soon through the Strait of Hormuz. The market appears to be pricing a "quick and sustainable opening" of the strait, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. "For now, a major vote of confidence is being applied to the success of this plan with limited regard to thorny issues such as financial compensation, sanctions and especially a satisfactory nuclear deal that was largely the reason behind the war." WTI is down 4% at $77.49 a barrel and Brent is off 3.8% at $80.01. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0751 ET - Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz isn't expected to normalize before late July and is projected to return to prewar levels only by end-September, analysts at HSBC say. "Hurdles include mine clearance, insurance reinstatement, emptying excess Gulf oil storage, repositioning ships, and restarting idled production fields and downstream infrastructure across several Gulf producers," they say. "We expect Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. to ramp up back to preconflict rates relatively quickly while other producers could take longer--months not weeks." In a partial reopening scenario instead, where Iran retains influence over the strait via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, flows could recover to around 60% of preconflict levels, leaving the oil market in deficit well into 2027, according to HSBC. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0732 ET - Oil prices extend losses on prospects of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and signs of softer physical demand, as the U.S. and Iran are set to sign a preliminary deal to end the war on Friday. In afternoon trading, Brent crude falls 2.6% to $81.03 a barrel, while WTI is down 3% to $78.29 a barrel. "Physical crude markets also weakened, with the Dubai and Murban forward curves shifting into contango for the first time since the war began, signaling easing concerns over immediate supply shortages," analysts at MUFG. Contango occurs when future prices trade above prompt prices, suggesting reduced anxiety about near-term supply availability. While the prospect of an agreement is clearly supportive for markets, details of the deal have yet to be disclosed. Even if maritime traffic resumes, analysts say it will likely take time for shipping activity and oil flows through the region to return to normal levels. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0610 ET - Palm oil rose, with the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery 93 ringgit higher at 4,578 ringgit a ton. Despite weaker crude oil prices, strong June export data and bargain-hunting interest likely cushioned sentiment, Kenanga Futures said in a note. Ongoing caution over the potential impact of El Nino on future output may have provided additional support, it added. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0508 ET - Investment demand for gold and silver is expected to pick up again even if it isn't as strong as before the start of the Iran war, Carsten Menke of Julius Baer writes in a note. The medium-to-longer-term backdrop in precious metal markets hasn't changed much after the progress in the U.S.-Iran deal, with continued central bank buying likely to remain the strongest driving force for gold, Menke says. Meanwhile, demand for Chinese solar silver is likely past its peak due to a continuing substitution with cheaper materials and a plateauing of production, and is likely to struggle for now, Menke says. Precious metal prices are likely to remain volatile until clarity and conviction about U.S. monetary policy returns, Menke says. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0307 ET - Aluminum prices fall as markets price out part of the geopolitical premium and increasingly shift toward a de-escalation scenario in the Middle East. "Among the base metals complex, aluminium was the most exposed to the conflict narrative given the concentration of smelting capacity and key seaborne trade routes linked to the region," analysts at Sucden Financial say. "As a result, easing supply concerns triggered a broad liquidation of long positions, with volumes rising sharply." In early European trade, three-month futures on the LME fall 0.8% to $3,356.50 a metric ton and are down 5% on the week. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0244 ET - Gold prices hold near Monday's gains as expectations of improved energy flows and lower oil prices eased concerns about inflation and further interest-rate increases. Still, investors remained cautious amid limited details on the U.S.-Iran agreement set to be signed Friday and uncertainty over how quickly shipping routes and commodity exports will return to normal. In early trading, New York futures slip 0.3% to $4,339 a troy ounce, but are up more than 1% on the week. Attention is now shifting to a series of central-bank meetings, with investors particularly focused on the Federal Reserve for fresh signals on the outlook for monetary policy. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 16, 2026 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)
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