By Doug Busch
One of the most useful investing exercises is revisiting prior stock ideas to assess how they actually performed after the initial thesis was laid out. Markets evolve quickly, and subsequent price action can strengthen, invalidate, or reshape even well-reasoned calls. Looking back at former picks helps separate luck from process, refine what works in the analysis framework, and improve discipline around risk management and timing going forward.
In this update we revisit the following former stock picks and examine how they have performed:
-- United Parcel Service, written by Al Root in March. -- Twilio, reviewed by Jacob Sonenshine last September. -- Vita Coco, introduced by Todd Chanko last November.
This note revisits past stock picks where new developments favor fresh buy or sell signals. Read last week's edition here.
United Parcel Service
The global logistics and delivery company has advanced 13% over the past three months and 11% since our recommendation.
On the daily chart, the stock has lagged peer FedEx Corporation over the past year as seen on the ratio chart, though recent price action suggests improvement may be under way. Notably, the slope of the 200-day simple moving average turned higher in January, signaling a potential shift in longer-term trend momentum.
Before that, the stock broke above a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pivot at $90 on Oct. 28, advancing 8% after a well-received earnings reaction. The subsequent gap was later filled on Nov. 20 before shares rallied to $120 in early February.
Since then, the stock has formed a double-bottom-with-handle base, with a key breakout trigger at $111.32. A move above that level would confirm the pattern and could move toward $137 by year end, representing 25% gains from current levels. Remain bullish above $105. UPS was trading around $108 on Wednesday.
Twilio
The cloud communications software company is up 65% over the past year, showing excellent relative strength compared with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, which is down 14% over the same period. Twilio now trades 19% below its 52-week high, presenting a good opportunity. The stock is up 80% since our recommendation.
Looking at the daily chart, the stock continues to exhibit strong relative strength, with the ratio chart versus the IGV ETF trending steadily higher. A series of bullish technical developments helped lay the foundation for the current advance, beginning with a bullish island reversal completed on Oct. 31 following a 20% gap higher after a well-received earnings report.
The positive momentum continued with a breakout above a $139.10 double-bottom-with-handle pivot on April 17. Shortly thereafter, another strong earnings reaction on May 1 sent shares 24% higher and helped form a bull flag.
The stock then cleared a key $190 breakout trigger on June 1, surging 19% on more than double its average daily volume. Shares are now pulling back to test that breakout level as the 50-day simple moving average catches up to price.
Enter here and look for a move toward $250 by year-end, representing 30% upside from current levels. Remain bullish above $175. Twilio was trading around $190 Wednesday.
Vita Coco
The beverage company best known for its coconut water has had a stellar year, gaining 142% over the past 12 months. The stock currently trades just 1% below its all-time high and recorded its best weekly gain on record during the final week of April, surging 32% on the second-highest weekly volume since its late-2021 IPO. The stock has gained 94% since our recommendation.
Looking at the daily chart, Vita Coco has demonstrated impressive relative strength against beverage peer Monster Beverage Corporation over the past year as seen on the ratio chart. The stock doubled from roughly $30 to $60 following a bullish harami on Aug. 6, carrying shares into their peak in early February.
A short cup base developed in mid-March, and the $61.49 breakout trigger was cleared on April 29 following a robust earnings reaction that soared 30%. Importantly, the stock refused to surrender those gains and formed a bull flag. The $77 breakout pivot was taken out on June 10.
The stock could advance toward $107 by year-end, representing 27% upside from current levels. Remain bullish above $75. Vita Coco was trading around $83 Wednesday.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
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June 18, 2026 00:37 ET (04:37 GMT)
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