Sims Fiscal 2026 Outlook Beats Consensus on US Scrap Conditions, Jefferies Says

MT Newswires Live06-18

Sims (ASX:SGM) is expected to benefit from stronger US scrap recycling market conditions and expanding earnings opportunities in its Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS) business, driving significant upgrades to earnings forecasts, according to a Wednesday note from Jefferies.

Jefferies said the company's fiscal 2026 guidance was around 15% above consensus at the midpoint, driven by stronger North American metals operations and SA Recycling joint venture, while SLS was largely in line with expectations.

The investment firm raised its fiscal 2026 earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) forecast 14% to AU$427 million, in line with guidance, citing stronger US trading conditions, higher ferrous scrap margins, and improved non-ferrous pricing.

Jefferies expects SLS EBIT to stay above AU$200 million through at least fiscal 2030, with growth driven by graphics processing unit and DDR5 decommissioning cycles starting around 2028, offsetting declines in DDR4.

The investment firm raised SLS EBIT forecasts by more than 50% from fiscal 2027 onwards, citing stronger expected margins and a gradual ramp in volumes from fiscal 2028.

The investment firm kept its mid-cycle EBIT estimate for the company at about AU$500 million, despite the upgrades and revised long-term assumptions.

Jefferies upgraded Sims to hold from underperform and raised its price target to AU$31 from AU$19.

Sims' shares were down about 1% in recent Thursday trade.

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