By Rebecca Feng, Georgi Kantchev and Joe Wallace
The U.S.-Iran peace deal was meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease one of the biggest supply disruptions in decades. So how's that going?
Shipping traffic through the waterway appeared to speed up over the weekend, undermining the Iranian military's claim to have closed Hormuz again. Even so, the number of ships passing through daily is a fraction of prewar rates.
Oil prices ticked down Monday and are near their lowest levels since the early days of the war at just under $80 a barrel. Brent crude fell almost 8% last week in anticipation that the U.S.-Iran deal will eventually unleash oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf.
Under the pact, Iran agreed to lift its chokehold on the strait and allow the safe passage of commercial vessels. So far, the deal looks more like the opening of a release valve than a floodgate.
A stream of crude is set to come from Iran itself after the U.S. lifted its own blockade.
Are ships now moving in the Persian Gulf?
Nineteen tankers went through the strait in either direction on Saturday followed by 14 on Sunday, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler.
All but one of the voyages on Sunday were by tankers leaving the Persian Gulf, laden with oil from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other producers. By 8 a.m. ET on Monday, a further nine tankers had left the Gulf and three had sailed in.
That's a pickup from Friday, when there were nine passages and seafarers on some ships said the Iranian navy had turned them back.
Iranian security officials said Saturday they had closed the strait. Military-affiliated news agency Tasnim said Hormuz wouldn't reopen unless fighting stops in Lebanon. The U.S. military, however, said the strait was open and the maritime data appear to bear that out.
How quickly can the Strait of Hormuz get back to normal?
Assuming no setbacks, traffic could return to around 50% of prewar levels -- roughly 50 to 60 ships a day -- in a month, according to analysts at Kpler.
Oil flows around the world have changed dramatically since February, so many ships will need to reposition before exporting Persian Gulf crude and fuel. Some vessels in the region will have to change crews or wait for port s to reopen fully.
Seafarers also need assurances that mines have been removed and clear guidance on toll payments, said Sheila Cameron, chief executive of the Lloyd's Market Association, which represents Lloyd's underwriters.
Tankers will likely hug the Omani and Iranian coastlines to avoid any mines in the strait's central channel, said Phillip Belcher, marine director at industry association Intertanko. That could cap the number of daily voyages.
When will oil stuck in the Persian Gulf get to market?
Even after traffic picks up, it will take weeks for oil to arrive at faraway buyers. Assuming the strait reopens in late June, supply relief wouldn't materialize until late August and there wouldn't be a meaningful normalization until September, according to Michael Haigh, head of commodities research at French bank Société Générale.
Meanwhile, he said, oil consumers will keep drawing down depleted inventories.
Has the U.S. naval blockade been lifted?
Under the peace deal, the U.S. agreed to start removing its naval blockade immediately and end the blockade within 30 days.
Signs of loosening emerged even before the agreement was signed. Three tankers carrying more than 5 million barrels of Iranian crude left the port of Chabahar and crossed the U.S. blockade line Tuesday, with more Iranian-flagged vessels crossing the blockade line since then.
Four of the tankers that left Hormuz in recent days sailed from Iran's main oil-export center, Kharg Island, according to Kpler.
When will oil production get back up to prewar levels?
Oil producers in the Middle East slashed production early in the war. Restoring it to precrisis levels could take four to six months, according to analysis by Francis Osborne, head of oil analytics at Argus Media.
The hardest fields to get pumping again are in Iraq and Kuwait. Many overseas workers left the region. Wells clog up with paraffin and asphalt-like substances when they aren't producing. At some older fields, more water and natural gas -- and less oil -- is likely to emerge from the ground.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer by far, will have a better time, having carefully managed the pressure of their fields down the decades.
How much demand will come from rebuilding depleted inventories?
Global inventories plunged by about 350 million barrels -- around 3.5 days of global oil use -- over March, April and May, according to the International Energy Agency.
U.S. oil executives say it could take months to replenish the country's inventories. At the current pace of drawdowns, America's strategic reserve will have about 243 million barrels by early September, compared with its 2009 peak of more than 700 million barrels.
Restocking adds to demand, possibly leaving prices higher than they otherwise would have been.
Write to Rebecca Feng at rebecca.feng@wsj.com, Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com and Joe Wallace at joe.wallace@wsj.com
This explanatory article may be periodically updated.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 22, 2026 09:09 ET (13:09 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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