Tesla will soon release second-quarter delivery numbers and while vehicle sales remain the main driver of revenue for the electric-car company, investors appear to be more focused on a possible SpaceX merger.
Elon Musk's electric-vehicle company is expected to report second-quarter vehicle delivery data and energy storage deployments in early July, right after the end of the quarter. The analyst consensus has Tesla delivering 401,120 electric vehicles, up 4% from a year ago, according to FactSet.
Tesla stock gained 0.2% to $382.51 in premarket trading on Wednesday after ending Tuesday down 5.8% to $381.61. The stock has declined 12% in June, trading 3.8% lower since SpaceX stock debuted on June 12, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
J.P. Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta on Wednesday cut his Tesla delivery estimate to 420,000 units from 430,500, but that's still well above the consensus view. The new estimate would still be the most by the company since its record-setting 497,099 in the third quarter of 2025 as buyers rushed to beat the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit.
Gupta cited "mixed recent signals" on EV demand in China and the U.S. as purchase incentives come to an end. This is balanced by Europe, which "remains the bright spot," according to J.P. Morgan.
Tesla vehicle registrations, a rough gauge for sales, more than doubled in European markets in May from the previous year, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association.
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan on Tuesday said he expects quarterly deliveries to total 405,000. While the estimate is slightly above the consensus view, Narayan added that Tesla's pivot into robo-taxi expansion and humanoid robots could potentially pressure the company's private vehicle sales.
To be sure, investors have been paying less attention to EV sales at Tesla. They are focused on artificial intelligence, believing Tesla's AI opportunities, including robo-taxis and robots, will usher in a new era of earnings growth.
There also is the looming possibility of an upcoming Tesla-SpaceX merger, bringing Musk's business empire under one massive umbrella.
Baird analyst Ben Kallo on Tuesday predicted second-quarter deliveries around 392,900 but added that the big recent news for Tesla has been the SpaceX initial public offering and the potential for a merger.
"We see this as likely to happen sooner rather than later," Kallo wrote on the business combination.
The analyst believes a Tesla and SpaceX merger likely will happen in the next 18 months, giving time for SpaceX to integrate the recent xAI merger and settle in as a public company.
"We see the strategic rationale for a merger as clear and compelling with both companies benefitting from greater scale. Questions may arise regarding regulatory review; however, we do not expect significant scrutiny given limited overlap of end markets," Kallo wrote.
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