Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Near Fair Value After $1b US Reset And India Expansion

Simply Wall St.06-22 01:27

Starbucks (SBUX) is reshaping its footprint, with a US$1 billion reset of its US cafés while accelerating new store openings in India, prompting fresh questions about how these moves might influence ...

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See our latest analysis for Starbucks. Recent headlines around Starbucks, from the potential restructuring of its Japan operations to a US$1 billion café reset in the US and faster India expansion, come as the stock trades at US$100.65 with a 1-year total shareholder return of 10.94% and a 5-year total shareholder return that is broadly flat at 0.06%. This suggests momentum has improved in the near term compared with the longer track record. If Starbucks’ reset has you thinking about where else change could be creating opportunities, this is a good moment to scan 20 top founder-led companies With Starbucks trading at US$100.65 after a stronger 1-year run but an almost flat 5-year total return, the reset story is already on many investors’ radars. The question is whether the stock is still underpriced or if markets are already assuming the next leg of growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued The most followed Starbucks narrative pegs fair value at $99.94, slightly below the last close at $100.65, which puts a tight spotlight on the assumptions behind that call.  The analysts have a consensus price target of $99.379 for Starbucks based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $115.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $73.0.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what underpins that narrow gap between price and fair value? The narrative leans heavily on expectations for earnings, firmer margins and a relatively high future profit multiple. The specific mix of projected growth, profitability and required return may be different from what you anticipate. Result: Fair Value of $99.94 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, Starbucks still faces pressure from higher labor costs that have already reduced operating margins, as well as from softer comparable store sales, which together could challenge the current fair value story. Find out about the key risks to this Starbucks narrative. Next Steps If the sentiment around Starbucks feels finely balanced between concern and optimism, this is the moment to move quickly and weigh the full picture yourself with 1 key reward and 5 important warning signs Looking for more investment ideas beyond Starbucks? If Starbucks has sharpened your focus on where capital is working hardest, do not stop here. These screeners surface stocks you might wish you had found earlier.  Spot potential value opportunities early by scanning companies highlighted in the 45 high quality undervalued stocks. Build a steadier income stream by reviewing stocks in the 8 dividend fortresses. Prioritise resilience by focusing on companies featured in the 65 resilient stocks with low risk scores.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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