NextDecade (NEXT) Could Be 20% Below Fair Value Following Rio Grande LNG Note Sale

Simply Wall St.06-25

NextDecade (NEXT) is back in focus after its partially owned subsidiary, Rio Grande LNG, LLC, announced plans to issue senior secured notes in a private offering to qualified institutional and non US ...

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The stock is down 16.84% over 30 days and 13.68% over 90 days. Its year to date share price return of 30.76% contrasts with a 1 year total...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NEXT":"NextDecade Corporation","BK4144":"石油与天然气的储存和运输"},"translate_title":"里奥格兰德液化天然气票据出售后，NextDecade(NEXT)的公允价值可能比公允价值低20%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NEXT":1.5},"content_text":"NextDecade (NEXT) is back in focus after its partially owned subsidiary, Rio Grande LNG, LLC, announced plans to issue senior secured notes in a private offering to qualified institutional and non US investors. See our latest analysis for NextDecade. Despite the financing plans at Rio Grande LNG, NextDecade’s recent share price momentum has cooled. The stock is down 16.84% over 30 days and 13.68% over 90 days. Its year to date share price return of 30.76% contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return that is down 18.29% and a 5 year total shareholder return that is up 70.34%. If you are weighing how this financing story fits into the wider energy transition theme, it can help to scan similar opportunities through the 89 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks With Rio Grande LNG’s new debt plans in focus and NextDecade shares pulling back after a strong year to date rise, you have to ask whether current valuations still leave upside on the table or whether the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 19.6% Undervalued At a last close of $7.04 versus a narrative fair value of $8.75, followers of the most popular view on NextDecade see meaningful upside potential grounded in long term LNG contracts and project build out assumptions.  Early cargo sales of over 175 trillion BTUs at expected margins of more than US$3 per MMBtu and the company’s projection that approximately 3,800 TBtus of early LNG volumes could generate US$1.2b to US$2b of distributable cash flow provide a defined path to use near term cash inflows to reduce term loans and corporate level leverage, which can support future net income.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what sits behind that confidence in early LNG cash flows? The core of this narrative is an aggressive revenue ramp, margin uplift and a future earnings multiple that together support the $8.75 fair value without relying on optimistic profitability timelines. Result: Fair Value of $8.75 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the bullish NextDecade narrative still hinges on Rio Grande LNG staying on schedule and on long term LNG demand not softening under energy transition pressure. Find out about the key risks to this NextDecade narrative. Next Steps If the mix of optimism and caution around NextDecade leaves you undecided, promptly review the underlying data and form your own stance using the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs Looking for more investment ideas beyond NextDecade? If NextDecade has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now with a few focused stock ideas that suit different approaches.  Target potential mispricings by scanning 44 high quality undervalued stocks that combine solid fundamentals with room for market expectations to catch up. Strengthen your income options by reviewing 7 dividend fortresses offering higher yields that may appeal if you want cash returns from your portfolio. Prioritize resilience by checking 69 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on stability, so you are not relying on a single story to carry your returns.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if NextDecade might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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