The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0548 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields edge higher in Asian trade, slightly more so on the short end of the curve, signaling market expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Meanwhile, oil prices fall to pre-Middle East war levels and investors await PCE data, the Fed's favored inflation gauge. "If today's PCE outcome supports market expectations of hikes from the Fed, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen," SEB's Karl Steiner, head of analysis, says in a note. Both headline and core inflation are expected to have accelerated in May. The two-year Treasury yield rises 1 basis point to 4.147%, while the 10-year yield is up 1 basis point to 4.409%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0547 GMT - Bitcoin rises in Asian trading as the market stabilizes on lighter positioning and improved leverage conditions, though fresh buying remains subdued, Wintermute trader Jasper De Maere says. However, the Fed's hawkish stance is weighing on capital flows into bitcoin, which needs liquidity from ETFs, stablecoins and digital asset treasuries, De Maere adds. Strategy, the cryptocurrency's largest corporate holder, is also contributing less marginal demand than in previous cycles. Still, with market sentiment sluggish and the U.S.-Iran peace deal appearing fragile, it wouldn't take much for bitcoin to bounce, Wintermute says. The trading firm expects bitcoin to be range-bound in the best-case scenario unless liquidity flows improve structurally. Bitcoin is last up 1.1% at $61,539.41.(jason.chau@wsj.com)
0530 GMT - Increasing duration exposure can be an attractive proposition, as long-end yields, particularly in the U.K., present a compelling entry point, Wellington Management's Martin Harvey and Marco Giordano say in the asset manager's mid-year outlook. "We have already noted the benefit of high starting yields to the total return equation via the income component," fixed income portfolio manager Harvey and investment director Giordano say. This attractive starting point provides a cushion against a further rise in yields as central banks contemplate tighter monetary policy, they say. "Conversely, if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall back, or if the market's focus shifts to the negative growth implications of the energy supply shock, there is the potential for yields to decline." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0529 GMT - The opportunity set for global government bonds remains compelling, Wellington Management's fixed-income portfolio manager Martin Harvey and investment director Marco Giordano say in the asset manager's midyear outlook. "Yields across developed markets are elevated, providing both attractive income and an even stronger cushion against downside risks, as already evidenced this year," they write. The combination of these features strengthens fixed income's potential role as both a provider of diversification and liquidity, but also as a return generator, moving us further away from the low-yield environment that characterized much of the previous cycle, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0519 GMT - Danske Bank expects the Federal Reserve to deliver two interest-rate increases--in December 2026 and March 2027--bringing the fed funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, senior analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen and chief analyst Jens Peter Sorensen say in a note. "We do, however, emphasize that there is a risk that rate hikes could come sooner, and that more than two could materialize," they say. Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chairman was a clear signal that the Fed is increasingly moving away from using forward guidance around coming monetary policy decisions. "All indications suggest a preference for greater discretion around future policy decisions," the analysts say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0519 GMT - Danske Bank's Federal Reserve call--interest-rate hikes in December 2026 and March 2027--implies that it expects U.S. rates to rise over the coming year, senior analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen and chief analyst Jens Peter Sorensen say in a note. Danske expects the two- and 10-year U.S. dollar swap rates to rise to 4.15% and 4.50%, respectively, over the coming year. "Additionally, we expect the worsening of the U.S. debt burden to continue to exert upward pressure on the long end of the curve," they say. The risk is that the Fed delivers rate hikes more quickly and to a greater extent than Danske analysts currently have priced in their forecast, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2026 01:48 ET (05:48 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments