MARKET WRAPS
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No major economic data and corporate trading updates expected
Opening Call:
European stock futures traded lower early Friday. Asian stock benchmarks fell with tech shares hit by a renewed selloff; the dollar weakened; Treasury yields edged lower; while oil futures and gold were lower.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a lower open in Europe, amid market anxiety over soaring memory chip costs for buyers. The impact of the chip shortage was underscored by Apple's latest plans to raise prices on some laptops and tablets.
"The boom in AI has fueled demand for memory chips, leading to shortages that may last well into next year, pointing to more gains for chip makers," said Raffi Boyadjian, lead market analyst at XM.
Meanwhile, investors are tracking developments in the Middle East.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship Thursday in the Strait of Hormuz, according to two senior U.S. officials, testing the deal signed last week by the U.S. and Iran to end fighting and reopen the vital shipping lane.
"We are aware of these reports and are looking into them. President Trump has been clear that Iran cannot subvert the free flow of traffic in the Strait," the White House said.
Forex:
The dollar strengthened but may be weighed down by diminished prospects of Fed rate hikes. New York Fed President Williams said overnight that current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to return inflation back to the Fed's 2% goal, CBA's Samara Hammoud said.
"Financial markets slightly reduced expectations for U.S. interest-rate hikes this year," the international economist and currency strategist added.
Bonds:
Treasury yields declined as U.S. indicators suggest the Fed may not need to be as hawkish as priced in by the market.
An apparent discrepancy in markets pricing of future inflation and interest rates could be deceiving, Northlight's Chris Zaccarelli said. War-related energy inflation and a recent hawkish pivot by the Fed have let fed funds futures to price in at least one hike this year.
But oil prices have fallen sharply recently. Meanwhile, the completely different swap market prices inflation near the Fed's 2% target in the one-year horizon. "Both markets can be correct," Zaccarelli said, but expects the Fed to remain on hold instead of hiking.
Energy:
Oil futures fell after solid gains overnight. However, futures' declines may be limited by concerns over the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship Thursday in the Strait.
"This comes as several commercial ships turned around while attempting to transit the strait, raising fresh doubts over the continued recovery of oil supply that had emerged following the reopening of the key waterway," ANZ Research analysts said.
Meanwhile, in another potential source of global oil market tumult, Iraq has threatened to exit OPEC if it isn't allowed to produce oil more freely. "Discontent inside OPEC threatens to unravel OPEC and put pressure on producers' willingness to cooperate to control prices," said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA.
Metals:
Gold declined. While the market expects gold prices to rebound after falling to $4,000 a troy ounce, Capital Economics' Hamad Hussain expects prices to fall over the next 18 months. He cites the prospect of Federal Reserve rate hikes boosting real yields and weighing on gold prices.
A potential equities tumble could also add greater downward pressure on gold prices, as investors often have to sell quality assets to meet margin calls during sudden stock selloffs, the economist said. Capital Economics expects gold to fall to $3,500 an ounce and $3,250 an ounce by end-2026 and end-2027, respectively.
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Copper prices declined. A stronger dollar following the Fed's hawkish stance at this month's meeting has weighed on prices, but easing inflation concerns as oil retreats toward preconflict levels have improved the broader macro backdrop, Guotai Junan Futures analysts said.
Downside may be limited as easing macro risks and bargain hunting by downstream buyers were supporting copper's fundamentals. Tight copper concentrate supply is increasingly constraining refined copper production in China, they added.
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Iron ore futures fell. Higher coke prices are still squeezing steel mills' margins, prompting greater caution toward additional ore purchases, according to ANZ research analysts. There is further downside for iron ore prices as shipments from nonmainstream ore remain at a high level, Nanhua Futures analysts said.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Iran Attacks Cargo Ship, Testing Trump's Deal to Reopen Strait
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship Thursday in the Strait of Hormuz, according to two senior U.S. officials, testing the deal signed last week by the U.S. and Iran to end the fighting and reopen the vital shipping lane.
A one-way attack drone maneuvered to the west side of the ship before it struck the vessel, according to one of the officials, an indication that the attack was deliberate. The attack damaged the ship's bridge but left no casualties, according to U.K. Maritime Trade Operations.
Oil Prices Make a Stunning Retreat to Prewar Levels. Where Do We Go From Here?
The U.S. war with Iran-and the economic war the latter waged in return-was supposed to be an apocalyptic moment for the oil market. Instead, oil prices are on the cusp of falling back to their prewar levels.
Their stunning round trip, just 11 days after President Trump reached a 60-day deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, has disrupted widespread expectations that the global oil market's recovery would take months, at minimum.
A world rejecting OPEC controls could usher in oil below $50 a barrel
Iraq is hinting that it could become the next major oil producer to exit OPEC - a now-fraying alliance of many of the world's biggest crude producers, created decades ago to control oil prices.
It's yet another source of potential tumult for the global oil market in 2026, starting with the shock move by the U.S. to take control of Venezuela's vast oil wealth and followed by the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran.
The EU Is Cutting Tariffs on the U.S. Now Comes the Next Fight.
BRUSSELS-The European Union on Thursday followed through on a central plank of its trade deal with President Trump after months of internal wrangling. Another economic battle with Washington looms even larger.
The EU's member countries on Thursday approved sweeping tariff cuts for many U.S. imports, marking the last formal vote in a multistep process whose pace had frustrated American officials. The tariff cuts were among several commitments the EU made last year in exchange for a U.S. pledge to cap most levies on the bloc at 15%.
The Options Trader Who Emerged as a Surprise Front-Runner to Succeed Jamie Dimon
In 2005, Jamie Dimon was taking over as chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase when he lured a Goldman Sachs foreign-exchange derivatives trader to join him.
Troy Rohrbaugh turned into a lucrative hire. He helped the bank earn hundreds of millions of dollars during the 2008-09 financial crisis, modernized its trading technology and moved JPMorgan from ninth to first in global rankings for foreign exchange over the course of a decade.
BHP Splits Americas Role in Executive Reshuffle
Incoming BHP Group Chief Executive Brandon Craig will split his recent role overseeing the company's Americas operations in two, sharpening focus on North and South America as growth engines for the world's most valuable miner.
BHP on Friday named innovation chief Jessica Farrell as North America president, effective July 1, and said Farrell will be acting president of the company's South America business until that role is filled.
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Expected Major Events for Friday
06:00/SWE: May PPI
06:00/NOR: May Retail Sales
06:00/DEN: May Central Government Finance & Debt
07:00/SWE: Jun Monthly Business Tendency Survey
07:00/SWE: Jun Consumer Tendency Survey
07:00/SVK: May PPI
08:00/AUT: Jun Austria Manufacturing PMI
08:00/ICE: Jun CPI
09:00/ITA: Jun Consumer Confidence Survey
09:00/ITA: Jun Business Confidence Survey
10:00/ITA: May Foreign Trade non-EU
16:59/HUN: 1Q Balance of Payments
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 26, 2026 00:05 ET (04:05 GMT)
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