This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron's.
Capex Boom: More Than AI
NDR Hotline I Insight NDR June 26: The current capex surge is clearly driven by AI, which is boosting overall economic growth. Indeed, Q1 real gross domestic product growth was revised up to a 2.1% annualized rate, with information processing equipment and software, or high-tech capex, contributing 1.29 percentage points, or more than 60% of total growth. While real high-tech capex was up nearly 20% in Q1 from a year ago, the rest of capex has lagged behind, which is one aspect of an "uneven" economy. There are, however, signs that capex demand is broadening, which bodes well for both the economy and the stock market.
Nondefense capital goods orders ex-aircraft, or core goods orders, have continued to strengthen in Q2. They rose 1.6% in May from the month before and were up 10.4% on a year over year trend basis, the fastest pace since March 2022.
Accelerating growth was evident across most major goods categories. In addition to computer and electronic products, orders of primary metals, fabricated metals, and machinery all rose 11% to 16% from a year ago, the fastest rates since 2022. It suggests stronger manufacturing output growth in the near-term, and likely reflects ongoing reshoring trends.
Veneta Dimitrova
Is Earnings Growth Peaking?
Paulsen Perspectives paulsenperspectives@substack.com June 25: Earnings-per-share [EPS] optimism seems to be nearing its high of this cycle at a time when recent economic policies are signaling that "weaker" EPS and slower overall economic growth may lie on the immediate horizon. A chart that overlays the annual growth in forward 12-month estimated S&P 500 EPS with the 10s to 2s U.S. yield curve (the 10-year Treasury yield less the two-year Treasury yield) shows that the yield curve is pushed forward or leads changes in EPS growth by one year.
Although this is far from a perfect relationship, since at least 1990, movements in the yield curve one-year ago have done a pretty good job of indicating the direction of EPS growth in the coming year.
Recent EPS growth has been supported by a steepening yield curve during the past year. However, the yield curve began rolling over in April 2025 and has been flattening again since year-end. With about a one-year lag, this suggests investors should anticipate slower EPS growth beginning now and a much more noticeable decline in the pace of EPS growth as the year progresses.
Other economic policies have also turned more restrictive recently, including a smaller federal deficit-to-GDP ratio, slower real money supply growth, a stronger U.S. dollar, and higher bond yields. Finally, a higher inflation rate, which appears likely to stay elevated in the coming months, is also acting as a restrictive force on economic growth, real incomes, and real profits.
Jim Paulsen
Top Real Estate Sectors
2026 Midyear Outlook Nuveen June 25: 2025 marked the beginning of a trend toward contracting real estate supply and rising values. Those trends have taken firmer hold, and demand and transaction activity are accelerating as investors recognize growing opportunity sets. We are primarily focused on sectors that benefit from supply constraints, such as medical office and senior housing, and more defensive areas like grocery-anchored retail. We also see select opportunities in retail and housing markets where demand is growing.
Saira Malik and Team
Task-Force Time
UBS House View -- Daily US UBS June 23: The introduction of multiple task forces by [Federal Reserve Chair Kevin] Warsh signals a slower policy reaction in the near term. A central development from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week was the announcement of five task forces spanning communications, the balance sheet, data, productivity and labor markets, and inflation frameworks. These groups are intended to revisit core elements of how the Fed conducts and communicates policy, with most conclusions expected by year-end.
We think this review process is likely to delay major policy adjustments as the Committee reassesses its framework and tools, and any lack of consensus among policymakers could further slow implementation. So, we view current market conviction around Fed rate hikes as aggressive, and believe that current elevated yields offer an opportunity for investors to add to short- to medium-maturity quality bonds. Our view that the Fed policy rate would ultimately move lower also underpins our constructive medium- to long-term outlook on gold, despite the near-term challenges it faces.
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and Team
Stocks' "Lunatic Sponsors"
Alan Newman's Stock Market Commentary Crosscurrents June 21: Breadth remains underwhelming. An apt one-word description would be "suspicious..."
We still lean to a turn later in the summer but we must stress that the rallies are beginning to look far short of resilient. How about accumulation? No way. It looks more like the FOMO ("Fear Of Missing Out") and YOLO ("You Only Live Once") camps are simply losing their lunatic sponsors. When those crowds vacate the premises, there will be nothing left to shore up prices.
A correction to our perceived major support at S&P 6300 would mean a 16% decline, not quite a bear market but we still have lower targets -- roughly 5000, which would be a 33% decline from here -- and we still have a 4103 target we first discussed over a year ago. That would be more than 45% down from here.
One possible catalyst could be a further collapse of Bitcoin. We noted recently that our 21-day cumulative volume measure had turned up enough to presume temporary strength. That measure is beginning to decline again and shows barely enough strength to keep BTC level. Every day that passes with BTC wallowing [around] $60,000 and nearly 50% off from the highs is another nail in the coffin.
-- Alan M. Newman
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 26, 2026 21:30 ET (01:30 GMT)
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