The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1551 ET - Treasury yields extend their decline as crude prices fall around 4% and settle near pre-war levels, easing inflation fears. The one-year inflation-linked swap rate, an indication of inflation expectations, falls below pre-war levels, according to LSEG. Odds of at least one Fed hike this year slip to 82% from 86% yesterday, on the CME's FedWatch tool. May PCE inflation is forecast to accelerate to 4.1% from 3.8%, with core little changed at 3.4%. Durable goods orders are expected to shrink 4%. Jobless claims are forecast to fall slightly. The 10-year yield falls 0.094 percentage point to 4.400%. The two-year declines 0.061 p.p. to 4.136%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1448 ET - The pressure hitting bitcoin and the cryptocurrency complex is in part tied to the selling seen in technology-related stocks, including most of the Magnificent 7 companies. "Heavy selling pressure in semiconductor and technology-related companies has fueled a broader increase in risk aversion, prompting many investors to reduce exposure to both growth stocks and cryptocurrencies," says Antonio Di Giacomo of XS.com in a note. Indications of higher interest rates for longer is also behind the pressure on bitcoin. The token is down 4.6% to $59,516, according to LSEG data. Ethereum slides 5.3% to $1,574, XRP is down 3.5% to $1.06, and solana drops 4.2% to $65.99. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1411 ET - Bank of Canada senior officials debated how broad-based the strength is underpinning the US economy, according to BOC minutes summarizing deliberations ahead of a June 10 rate decision. On June 10, the BOC left its policy rate unchanged, at 2.25%, arguing leaving it there would help balance the risks of weak growth and upward inflation pressure. According to the minutes, policymakers "discussed whether the strength in the US economy was broad-based, or whether surging investment in some sectors and consumption by higher-income households were masking softness elsewhere in the economy." In remarks this week, BOC Governor Tiff Macklem expressed worries about an AI-fueled asset bubble. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1147 ET - Shares of Strategy's perpetual preferred stock STRC - which stands for "Short Duration High Yield Credit" - are off from their $100 peg, at $83.84. Behind this slide is the lower bitcoin prices, with Strategy currently sitting on an unrealized loss of nearly $11 billion. STRC fell as low as $82.53 last week, which is a record-low for the offering. "The main issue is cash coverage," says analysts with CryptoQuant in a note. "Strategy's USD reserve has fallen 38% since the start of 2026, while annualized dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion." The cryptocurrency market fears a scenario where Strategy dumps a sizable portion of their bitcoin holdings, as the company says that it holds 847,363 bitcoin -- roughly 4% of all bitcoin in circulation. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1135 ET - Bitcoin is moving back toward the low it posted earlier this month, with a trove of quarterly options expiring Friday. The token is down 2.5% to $60,811, nearing the cycle low of $59,200 briefly touched on June 5. Analysts with Bitfinex speculate that bitcoin is more likely to move past the $60k "put wall" and into lower territory than bounce. "The asymmetry is to the downside," says the firm in a note. "A sustained move below the $60,000 put wall pushes deeper into negative gamma and risks a cascade toward $54,000 to $56,000." Some $125 million in bitcoin options have been liquidated in 24 hours, according to data from Coinglass -- with the vast majority of that being long positions. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1125 ET - Investment-grade credit looks more attractive than high-yield credit as market risks linger, BCA Research's Robert Timper and Jeremie Peloso say in a note. "Investment-grade issuers continue to strengthen, while lower-rated borrowers face mounting pressures," they say. Credit spreads are tight, underpricing the present risks and "leaving investors vulnerable should corporate fundamentals begin to deteriorate," the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1051 ET - The dollar strengthens while Treasury yields decline as markets react to Fed policy and easing geopolitical tensions. The Fed sounded surprisingly hawkish last week, fueling expectations of at least one and maybe two interest rate increases this year which would support the greenback. "The dollar's spot price could continue to react to the near-term risk of rate hikes," Naga.com's Frank Walbaum says. Meanwhile, falling oil prices reduce inflation fears, weighing on yields. The Fed's pledge to keep fighting inflation reassures markets that rates will fall after a potential tightening, Walbaum says. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.416%, after reaching 4.5% overnight. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1048 ET - Gulf stocks mostly fall as weaker oil prices weigh on regional sentiment, says Aqib E. Mehboob, head of research at Saudi-based BSF Capital. Dollar strength is also affecting markets through global risk appetite, foreign flows and funding conditions, he says. Oil prices are tumbling on signs that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering. Qatar's QE Index falls 0.8%, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index and Abu Dhabi's benchmark index each lose 0.3%. The Dubai Financial Market General Index rises 0.1%. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1001 ET - The cost of insuring euro-denominated credit against default rises as concerns about tech-stock valuations reduce appetite for risk assets. Investors are worried about high valuations on tech companies, some of which lack clear paths to profitability, Swissquote Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. Markets await earnings results from U.S. tech company Micron Technology, set to be released on Wednesday after U.S. market close. The earnings could provide clues on whether the AI-related investments are worthwhile. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 1 basis point to trade at 249bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0952 ET - A tentative peace deal between Iran and the U.S. is driving hopes that eurozone inflation could soon recede to the ECB's 2% target, Vincent Stamer at Commerzbank says in a note. If the rise in energy prices is seen as temporary by companies, they might refrain from raising sales prices, he says. Commerzbank expects inflation to remain at around 3% in the coming months, before falling to 2% in the second half of next year. "If the conflict in the Persian Gulf is permanently resolved, this could mark the beginning of the end of this inflation period." Still, a second interest-rate hike by the ECB is likely with inflation persistently coming in above 3% and indirect effects of high energy prices on the horizon, Stamer says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0906 ET - The euro's decline against the dollar is likely to slow at the very least, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. The euro falls to a one-year low of $1.1324, according to LSEG data, following a recent increase in Federal Reserve interest-rate rise expectations and a paring of tightening bets for the European Central Bank. The euro has broken below the range of $1.14 and $1.20 it has been in for the majority of the past year, Juckes says. This could limit how much further the euro can fall, he says. "Fed and ECB expectations have been reset, and we need fresh economic data to drive the next leg of the move." (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0905 ET - Treasury yields decline as U.S.-Iran peace talks continue and oil futures fall 3%. May U.S. new home sales, due at 10 a.m. ET, are expected to increase 1.6%, after contracting by 6.2% in April, according to a WSJ survey. The decline in yields happens even as the dollar strengthens. The WSJ Dollar Index is up 0.3%. The currency move is influenced by unwinding short USD positions, while yields are driven by U.S. economic resilience, Bannockburn's Marc Chandler says. The 10-year is at 4.445%, down from 4.493% yesterday. The two-year falls to 4.168% from 4.191%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2026 15:51 ET (19:51 GMT)
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