The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1234 ET - Micron will generate an estimated $380 billion in free cash flow in 2027 and 2028 which will likely be heavily used for stock buybacks, UBS says in a research note. At the current stock price, that could allow the company to repurchase some 20% to 30% of its shares between now and then, the analysts say. They are slightly lowering their estimates for EPS in 2029 to $121 and, discounting it back a year, maintain a price target of $1,625. UBS also maintains its buy rating. Micron surges 16% to $1,214.94. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1210 ET - An apparent discrepancy in markets pricing of future inflation and interest rates could be deceiving, Northlight's Chris Zaccarelli says. War-related energy inflation and a recent hawkish pivot by the Fed have let fed funds futures to price in at least one hike this year. But oil prices have fallen sharply recently. Meanwhile, the completely different swap market prices inflation near the Fed's 2% target in the one-year horizon. "Both markets can be correct," Zaccarelli says, as "some members of the Fed may want to raise rates in the hopes of causing the inflation rate to drop." He expects the Fed to remain on hold instead of hiking, though. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1156 ET - Major cryptocurrencies are falling again, with a macro-level "debasement trade" a key driver for weakness in bitcoin and other major crypto tokens. "In the short term [bitcoin is] tracking more in-line with 'debasement' trades that are suffering from a relatively hawkish Fed posture," says Stephen Coltman of 21shares. Coltman adds that the status of Strategy's bitcoin treasury, and the ability of the company to survive without selling a sizable portion of it, is also injecting fear into investors. Strategy's last purchase of bitcoin, posted on Monday, brought its total stack to 847,363 BTC, with an average buying price of $75,651 per coin. That means that at today's prices, Strategy is nearly $14 billion underwater. Bitcoin is down 2.7% to $59,250, according to data from LSEG. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1146 ET - Farm income looks to be increasingly buoyed by government payments, with the Trump Administration calling for a fresh round of aid totaling $11B to $12B. Last month, the USDA said that 2026 net farm income was forecast at $153.4B, with $44.3B coming from "direct government farm payments." With the additional supplement, direct government payments now exceeds the record-high of $45.7B set in 2020, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic shutting down markets and scrambling supply chains. Increased farm aid also brings government payments as a percentage of farm aid comparable to the late 90s. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1129 ET - Canada's monthly data measuring GDP by industry has become a less-reliable indicator to determine quarterly growth, write economists at Desjardins Securities in a note. The authors, among them deputy chief economist Randall Bartlett, argue the monthly GDP by industry is now subject to heavier-than-normal revisions -- a trend that picked up after the Covid-19 pandemic, relative to the pre-2020 period. Desjardins says the retail component of monthly GDP "has become completely uncorrelated with monthly sales volumes." The Desjardins note comes after a surprise miss in 1Q GDP data, with data indicating a 0.1% annualized decline versus the Bank of Canada's 1.5% forecast. Canada's monthly GDP measures economic output by industry, whereas the quarterly GDP data incorporates household and government spending, business investment, and net exports. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1114 ET - Inflation expectations fall near the Fed target, but markets seem reluctant to unwind bets on rising interest rates. The one-year inflation-linked swap rate is just above the Fed's 2% target, indicating investors believe inflation will soon cool down. Falling oil prices should help, as should an interest-rate increase. Futures markets price in at least one rate increase this year, with high odds rates will stay elevated into 2027. Rate hikes "appear even more out of step with economic reality after this morning's data," Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark write. They expect the Fed's next move to be a cut. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1110 ET - Weakness in bitcoin continues, with the cryptocurrency dipping to as low as $58,300 earlier today before rebounding back towards $60,000. It's currently down 2% at $59,687, according to LSEG data. On Wednesday, net outflows from bitcoin ETFs surged to $469 million from $113.8 million the day prior, according to data from CoinGlass. The crypto analytics platform also says $660.5 million of liquidations occurred in the past 24 hours, with roughly $541 million of that being in long positions. Ethereum is down 2.6% to $1,569, and XRP is off 3.5% to $1.03. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1105 ET - House prices in Spain are rising, leading to a boost for the Spanish covered-bonds markets, LBBW's Markus Herrmann says in a note. Covered bonds are debt securities issued by financial institutions and are backed by assets such as mortgage loans. "Rising house prices increase the value of the collateral in the cover pool," Herrmann says. Increased activity in the Spanish property market is also likely to result in higher supply of covered bonds after fairly limited issuance in recent years, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1054 ET - A deeper-than-expected decline in U.S. weekly jobless claims is likely due to last Friday's Juneteenth holiday, Pantheon's Samuel Tombs writes. The holiday became official in 2021 and is increasingly observed. Claims last week fell to 215,000 from 227,000. Tombs notes declines were reported in the shortened week in the past three years. The broader trend in claims, a gauge for layoffs, "appears to have picked up since the start of May, consistent with growth in payrolls slowing," Tombs says. He expects "this hiring caution to persist, resulting in the unemployment rate climbing gradually to 4.7% by the end of this year." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1018 ET - French consumer confidence rebounding in June as global energy prices eased suggests that the inflation shock from the U.S.-Iran war could be smaller than initially feared, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen says in a note. Insee's sentiment gauge rose to 84 from 82 in May. "French households, in theory, have the most to gain relative to consumers in the other major eurozone economies, as they have borne the full force of higher oil prices without offsetting tax cuts," Vistesen says. Households' expectations of future inflation fell markedly, while major purchase intentions also edged higher. However, a rise in unemployment fears is a risk to near-term spending growth, he says. "As such, we continue to forecast subdued growth in consumption this year." (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0949 ET - German manufacturers have faced mounting competition from Chinese peers in recent years, but the worst of this could be coming to a close, Robin Winkler at Deutsche Bank says in a note. The decline in Germany's trade balance with China was driven by an appreciation in the real exchange rate, which made German goods relatively more expensive than Chinese products. "However, the tide began to turn late last year, and it has continued to do so in recent months." Despite producer prices rising more in Germany amid the energy price shock, China's nominal exchange rate continues to appreciate, Winkler says. From the second half of 2026, this could provide a boost to the trade balance, he adds. "We are increasingly confident that the worst of the China shock is over." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0935 ET - After year-over-year PCE climbed by 4.1% in May, some economists are predicting this could be the peak of price increases. However, the 0.3% increase in core inflation, and 3.4% from a year-ago, may have staying power, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "Given the clear pipeline pressure that has been evident for the past few months inside the Producer Price Index, unlike the topline those prices will not so easily retreat," he says. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2026 12:34 ET (16:34 GMT)
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