The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0651 GMT - The dollar trades steady after reaching a 13-month high Wednesday as investors await key inflation data that could provide clues on whether the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this year as expected. PCE prices data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, are due at 1230 GMT. Weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders and the third estimate of first-quarter growth are also expected at 1230 GMT. Meanwhile, risk sentiment improves after upbeat earnings from chip maker Micron Technology and oil prices fall to levels before the Iran war, dampening the dollar's upward momentum due to its safe-haven role and America's position as a net oil exporter. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 101.594 after reaching as high as 101.800 Wednesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0650 GMT - The Nikkei Stock Average rose 4.6% to a fresh closing high of 72366.34 after memory-chip maker Micron Technology's blockbuster results soothed investor concerns over huge spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure. "The sun is shining again, as Micron's earnings announcement after the U.S. close went very well," Swissquote's Ipek Ozkardeskaya said in an email. The earnings beat lifted sentiment across the AI and technology sectors, the senior analyst added. Among top performers on the Nikkei, Advantest surged 15%, Kioxia Holdings climbed 12%, and Kokusai Electric rose 11%. The dollar was at 161.83 yen, compared with Y161.81 late Wednesday in New York. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0624 GMT - Oil prices fall but rates markets aren't in a hurry to price in lower oil prices, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. "We have to admit that oil prices have moved lower than we expected, as the market focuses on the increased traffic through the Strait [of Hormuz]," the global economist says. "Yet the rates market has been reluctant to price in the impact of lower oil prices," he says. Jefferies believes one of the main impact from the U.S.-Iran deal is that central banks wouldn't need to hike rates. "We retain the view of no hikes from the Federal Reserve for this year and the next move from the Fed would be a cut and not a hike." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0622 GMT - Singapore's non-oil domestic export growth is likely to remain resilient in 2H, CGS International analysts say in a note. In May, NODX rose sharply, driven by broad-based gains across electronics and non-electronics segments. The city-state is increasingly benefiting from the regional artificial-intelligence supply chain, particularly through trade links with key semiconductor hubs including Taiwan and South Korea. Although non-electronics exports will remain volatile, the electronics segment's strong performance should continue to support NODX growth. Singapore's forward-looking indicators also look positive, with manufacturing PMI new export orders pointing to rising external demand. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0612 GMT - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to rise to 4.65% over the next year in Barclays's base-line scenario, its strategists say in a note. In their base-line scenario, the Federal Reserve remains on hold. "We think investors should remain underweight long-duration government bonds globally, but particularly long-dated Treasurys," they write. The strategists believe the market pricing of long-term rates still implies a lower equilibrium rate, but at the same time, the number of reasons for higher term premia are adding up by the day. "Higher structural deficits, less forward guidance, poorer diversification benefits from bonds--all point toward a world where investors should demand much more compensation for taking duration risk globally," they say. The 10-year Treasury yield last trades at 4.409%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0548 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields edge higher in Asian trade, slightly more so on the short end of the curve, signaling market expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Meanwhile, oil prices fall to pre-Middle East war levels and investors await PCE data, the Fed's favored inflation gauge. "If today's PCE outcome supports market expectations of hikes from the Fed, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen," SEB's Karl Steiner, head of analysis, says in a note. Both headline and core inflation are expected to have accelerated in May. The two-year Treasury yield rises 1 basis point to 4.147%, while the 10-year yield is up 1 basis point to 4.409%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0547 GMT - Bitcoin rises in Asian trading as the market stabilizes on lighter positioning and improved leverage conditions, though fresh buying remains subdued, Wintermute trader Jasper De Maere says. However, the Fed's hawkish stance is weighing on capital flows into bitcoin, which needs liquidity from ETFs, stablecoins and digital asset treasuries, De Maere adds. Strategy, the cryptocurrency's largest corporate holder, is also contributing less marginal demand than in previous cycles. Still, with market sentiment sluggish and the U.S.-Iran peace deal appearing fragile, it wouldn't take much for bitcoin to bounce, Wintermute says. The trading firm expects bitcoin to be range-bound in the best-case scenario unless liquidity flows improve structurally. Bitcoin is last up 1.1% at $61,539.41.(jason.chau@wsj.com)
0530 GMT - Increasing duration exposure can be an attractive proposition, as long-end yields, particularly in the U.K., present a compelling entry point, Wellington Management's Martin Harvey and Marco Giordano say in the asset manager's mid-year outlook. "We have already noted the benefit of high starting yields to the total return equation via the income component," fixed income portfolio manager Harvey and investment director Giordano say. This attractive starting point provides a cushion against a further rise in yields as central banks contemplate tighter monetary policy, they say. "Conversely, if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall back, or if the market's focus shifts to the negative growth implications of the energy supply shock, there is the potential for yields to decline." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0529 GMT - The opportunity set for global government bonds remains compelling, Wellington Management's fixed-income portfolio manager Martin Harvey and investment director Marco Giordano say in the asset manager's midyear outlook. "Yields across developed markets are elevated, providing both attractive income and an even stronger cushion against downside risks, as already evidenced this year," they write. The combination of these features strengthens fixed income's potential role as both a provider of diversification and liquidity, but also as a return generator, moving us further away from the low-yield environment that characterized much of the previous cycle, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0519 GMT - Danske Bank expects the Federal Reserve to deliver two interest-rate increases--in December 2026 and March 2027--bringing the fed funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, senior analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen and chief analyst Jens Peter Sorensen say in a note. "We do, however, emphasize that there is a risk that rate hikes could come sooner, and that more than two could materialize," they say. Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chairman was a clear signal that the Fed is increasingly moving away from using forward guidance around coming monetary policy decisions. "All indications suggest a preference for greater discretion around future policy decisions," the analysts say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0519 GMT - Danske Bank's Federal Reserve call--interest-rate hikes in December 2026 and March 2027--implies that it expects U.S. rates to rise over the coming year, senior analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen and chief analyst Jens Peter Sorensen say in a note. Danske expects the two- and 10-year U.S. dollar swap rates to rise to 4.15% and 4.50%, respectively, over the coming year. "Additionally, we expect the worsening of the U.S. debt burden to continue to exert upward pressure on the long end of the curve," they say. The risk is that the Fed delivers rate hikes more quickly and to a greater extent than Danske analysts currently have priced in their forecast, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2026 02:51 ET (06:51 GMT)
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