The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0715 GMT - Bitcoin recovers after reaching a 20-month low in the previous session. Outflows in crypto exchange traded funds, a stronger dollar and expectations for interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve had contributed to bitcoin's losses on Wednesday, Capital.com's Monte Safieddine says in a note. Bitcoin's recovery follows upbeat earnings from Micron Technology, which helped soothe fears over an AI bubble that had driven a recent selloff in tech stocks and had also weighed on cryptocurrencies. The dollar has also eased off its highs. Bitcoin rises 1.2% to $61,665 after falling to as low as $59,062 Wednesday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0711 GMT - Japan's massive investment package aimed at boosting growth and strengthening economic security is likely to keep fiscal fears alive in the Japanese government bond market, says Koji Hamada at Daiwa Securities. Sectors need different degrees of government support, with those like semiconductors and cloud data centers requiring the heaviest funding, the economist says. Even the less capital-intensive sectors will likely rely on long-term financing, he adds. Regardless of the ultimate outcome of those investments, the government plan means that the issuance of new JGBs will inevitably increase, he says. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0711 GMT - Malaysia should remain on a solid growth path, supported by resilient domestic demand, a strong labor market and continued investment activity, ANZ economist Krystal Tan says in a note. Demand for electronics and AI-related products is also expected to support exports and attract foreign investment, she says. Inflation pressures are gradually building but remain manageable, she adds. With Middle East tensions easing and inflation risks firming up, Bank Negara Malaysia may have room to reverse last year's pre-emptive rate cut with a 25bp hike as early as 2H, she adds. Political developments ahead of coming elections are emerging as a key risk to monitor throughout 2026-2027, ANZ adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0707 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields are barely changed as the economic data calendar is thin before a pickup in the coming days. Some input might come from the German Finance Agency's third-quarter funding review, although analysts don't expect any meaningful change compared with the preliminary plan published in December. "As the DFA [German Finance Agency] seems keen to be predictable, we don't expect any revisions at this stage," Commerzbank's Erik Liem says in a note. "However, we could envision changes to the Q4 calendar if disbursements from the special funds continue to lag," the rates strategist says. The 10-year Bund yield declines 0.2 basis points to 2.864%, staying close to a 3.5-month low of 2.858% reached on Wednesday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0655 GMT - Indonesia is likely to face slower economic growth amid tighter financial conditions and weaker government spending, says ANZ economist Krystal Tan in a note. While policymakers have taken steps to stabilize the markets and reassure investors, confidence could remain fragile due to concerns over policy predictability and fiscal discipline, she says. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates at around 6.0% in 2026, with rates rising to 6.50% if domestic credibility concerns persist or the Fed proves more hawkish than expected, she reckons. ANZ reckons sustained improvement in market sentiment will depend on clearer evidence of policy consistency, transparency and prudent fiscal management. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0651 GMT - The dollar trades steady after reaching a 13-month high Wednesday as investors await key inflation data that could provide clues on whether the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this year as expected. PCE prices data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, are due at 1230 GMT. Weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders and the third estimate of first-quarter growth are also expected at 1230 GMT. Meanwhile, risk sentiment improves after upbeat earnings from chip maker Micron Technology and oil prices fall to levels before the Iran war, dampening the dollar's upward momentum due to its safe-haven role and America's position as a net oil exporter. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 101.594 after reaching as high as 101.800 Wednesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0650 GMT - The Nikkei Stock Average rose 4.6% to a fresh closing high of 72366.34 after memory-chip maker Micron Technology's blockbuster results soothed investor concerns over huge spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure. "The sun is shining again, as Micron's earnings announcement after the U.S. close went very well," Swissquote's Ipek Ozkardeskaya said in an email. The earnings beat lifted sentiment across the AI and technology sectors, the senior analyst added. Among top performers on the Nikkei, Advantest surged 15%, Kioxia Holdings climbed 12%, and Kokusai Electric rose 11%. The dollar was at 161.83 yen, compared with Y161.81 late Wednesday in New York. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0624 GMT - Oil prices fall but rates markets aren't in a hurry to price in lower oil prices, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. "We have to admit that oil prices have moved lower than we expected, as the market focuses on the increased traffic through the Strait [of Hormuz]," the global economist says. "Yet the rates market has been reluctant to price in the impact of lower oil prices," he says. Jefferies believes one of the main impact from the U.S.-Iran deal is that central banks wouldn't need to hike rates. "We retain the view of no hikes from the Federal Reserve for this year and the next move from the Fed would be a cut and not a hike." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0622 GMT - Singapore's non-oil domestic export growth is likely to remain resilient in 2H, CGS International analysts say in a note. In May, NODX rose sharply, driven by broad-based gains across electronics and non-electronics segments. The city-state is increasingly benefiting from the regional artificial-intelligence supply chain, particularly through trade links with key semiconductor hubs including Taiwan and South Korea. Although non-electronics exports will remain volatile, the electronics segment's strong performance should continue to support NODX growth. Singapore's forward-looking indicators also look positive, with manufacturing PMI new export orders pointing to rising external demand. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0612 GMT - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to rise to 4.65% over the next year in Barclays's base-line scenario, its strategists say in a note. In their base-line scenario, the Federal Reserve remains on hold. "We think investors should remain underweight long-duration government bonds globally, but particularly long-dated Treasurys," they write. The strategists believe the market pricing of long-term rates still implies a lower equilibrium rate, but at the same time, the number of reasons for higher term premia are adding up by the day. "Higher structural deficits, less forward guidance, poorer diversification benefits from bonds--all point toward a world where investors should demand much more compensation for taking duration risk globally," they say. The 10-year Treasury yield last trades at 4.409%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0548 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields edge higher in Asian trade, slightly more so on the short end of the curve, signaling market expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Meanwhile, oil prices fall to pre-Middle East war levels and investors await PCE data, the Fed's favored inflation gauge. "If today's PCE outcome supports market expectations of hikes from the Fed, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen," SEB's Karl Steiner, head of analysis, says in a note. Both headline and core inflation are expected to have accelerated in May. The two-year Treasury yield rises 1 basis point to 4.147%, while the 10-year yield is up 1 basis point to 4.409%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0547 GMT - Bitcoin rises in Asian trading as the market stabilizes on lighter positioning and improved leverage conditions, though fresh buying remains subdued, Wintermute trader Jasper De Maere says. However, the Fed's hawkish stance is weighing on capital flows into bitcoin, which needs liquidity from ETFs, stablecoins and digital asset treasuries, De Maere adds. Strategy, the cryptocurrency's largest corporate holder, is also contributing less marginal demand than in previous cycles. Still, with market sentiment sluggish and the U.S.-Iran peace deal appearing fragile, it wouldn't take much for bitcoin to bounce, Wintermute says. The trading firm expects bitcoin to be range-bound in the best-case scenario unless liquidity flows improve structurally. Bitcoin is last up 1.1% at $61,539.41.(jason.chau@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2026 03:16 ET (07:16 GMT)
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