The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1627 ET - The hydropower sector worldwide added 28 gigawatts in new capacity last year, including a record 11.7 GW from pumped-storage projects, according to the International Hydropower Association. Pumped-storage systems store water in reservoirs at different elevations, releasing water to generate electricity but catching it in downhill basins, then pumping it back up during periods of low power demand. The additions lifted the world's total pumped-storage capacity to 201 GW, surpassing 200 GW for the first time, the trade group says. China accounted for roughly 12.2 GW of total capacity additions last year and dominates the sector with more than 300 GW under construction, including a 217.5 GW of pumped storage alone, the IHA adds. In comparison, the U.S. added about 0.5 GW in hydropower capacity last year. (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)
1546 ET - Treasury yields decline as U.S. indicators suggest the Fed may not need to be as hawkish as priced in by the market. WSJ reports Iran attacks a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rise 2%. May PCE annual inflation accelerates as expected, to 4.1%, while durable goods orders fall 4.5%. First-quarter GDP growth is revised higher, to 2.1%. Jobless claims fall more than expected in a week shortened by Juneteenth holiday. June University of Michigan consumers sentiment index is expected to increase, in a WSJ consensus. The WSJ Dollar Index falls 0.2%. The 10-year yield slips 0.008 percentage point to 4.391%. The two-year drops 0.016 p.p. to 4.120%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1530 ET - Five years ago, there was a notable change to the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting framework agreement -- the inclusion of "maximum sustainable employment," championed by the Canadian finance minister at the time, Chrystia Freeland. A summary of consultations the Bank of Canada recently concluded about its inflation-target regime suggest the employment reference may need to come out. The framework agreement, between the BOC and Canada's finance department, needs to "reassert the primary focus on inflation and less emphasis on" employment, says the report on consultations. The report indicated labor groups backed the employment reference. In 2021, when the inflation-targeting framework was tweaked, some economists warned the change sowed confusion. Yet, BOC officials since then have made clear that 2% inflation is their guiding light. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
1450 ET - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on CNBC that today's inflation report wasn't all negative, as there was some improvement in services inflation. Goolsbee noted that measure has been more concerning recently because its elevated reading doesn't stem from rising oil prices or tariff-related pressures. Regarding both sides of the Fed's dual mandate, inflation remains his concern. When discussing tools the Fed uses, such as the balance sheet, Goolsbee said the rate decision is fundamentally the monetary policy decision for the Fed. "The balance sheet in emergencies, like the origins of QE [quantitative easing], was used as monetary policy, but I tend to think of the balance sheet not as a monetary policy decision," he said. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1252 ET - Bitcoin is trading near $59,000, a level last seen in 2024. While expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve potentially raising interest rates multiple times this year have kept bitcoin underwater, it's not a position unfamiliar to longer-term holders. Matt Mena with 21shares points to a high score on Glassnode's accumulation trend score, last seen both in 2022 in the depths of FTX-related selling and 2020's Covid-era market crash. "Bitcoin went on to 36x and 8x respectively from those lows," says Mena. If upcoming reports from the government come in softer than anticipated, then Mena sees a pathway for bitcoin to rise back up to around $67,000, with further upside from there if a lasting resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1234 ET - Micron will generate an estimated $380 billion in free cash flow in 2027 and 2028 which will likely be heavily used for stock buybacks, UBS says in a research note. At the current stock price, that could allow the company to repurchase some 20% to 30% of its shares between now and then, the analysts say. They are slightly lowering their estimates for EPS in 2029 to $121 and, discounting it back a year, maintain a price target of $1,625. UBS also maintains its buy rating. Micron surges 16% to $1,214.94. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1210 ET - An apparent discrepancy in markets pricing of future inflation and interest rates could be deceiving, Northlight's Chris Zaccarelli says. War-related energy inflation and a recent hawkish pivot by the Fed have let fed funds futures to price in at least one hike this year. But oil prices have fallen sharply recently. Meanwhile, the completely different swap market prices inflation near the Fed's 2% target in the one-year horizon. "Both markets can be correct," Zaccarelli says, as "some members of the Fed may want to raise rates in the hopes of causing the inflation rate to drop." He expects the Fed to remain on hold instead of hiking, though. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1156 ET - Major cryptocurrencies are falling again, with a macro-level "debasement trade" a key driver for weakness in bitcoin and other major crypto tokens. "In the short term [bitcoin is] tracking more in-line with 'debasement' trades that are suffering from a relatively hawkish Fed posture," says Stephen Coltman of 21shares. Coltman adds that the status of Strategy's bitcoin treasury, and the ability of the company to survive without selling a sizable portion of it, is also injecting fear into investors. Strategy's last purchase of bitcoin, posted on Monday, brought its total stack to 847,363 BTC, with an average buying price of $75,651 per coin. That means that at today's prices, Strategy is nearly $14 billion underwater. Bitcoin is down 2.7% to $59,250, according to data from LSEG. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1146 ET - Farm income looks to be increasingly buoyed by government payments, with the Trump Administration calling for a fresh round of aid totaling $11B to $12B. Last month, the USDA said that 2026 net farm income was forecast at $153.4B, with $44.3B coming from "direct government farm payments." With the additional supplement, direct government payments now exceeds the record-high of $45.7B set in 2020, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic shutting down markets and scrambling supply chains. Increased farm aid also brings government payments as a percentage of farm aid comparable to the late 90s. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1129 ET - Canada's monthly data measuring GDP by industry has become a less-reliable indicator to determine quarterly growth, write economists at Desjardins Securities in a note. The authors, among them deputy chief economist Randall Bartlett, argue the monthly GDP by industry is now subject to heavier-than-normal revisions -- a trend that picked up after the Covid-19 pandemic, relative to the pre-2020 period. Desjardins says the retail component of monthly GDP "has become completely uncorrelated with monthly sales volumes." The Desjardins note comes after a surprise miss in 1Q GDP data, with data indicating a 0.1% annualized decline versus the Bank of Canada's 1.5% forecast. Canada's monthly GDP measures economic output by industry, whereas the quarterly GDP data incorporates household and government spending, business investment, and net exports. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1114 ET - Inflation expectations fall near the Fed target, but markets seem reluctant to unwind bets on rising interest rates. The one-year inflation-linked swap rate is just above the Fed's 2% target, indicating investors believe inflation will soon cool down. Falling oil prices should help, as should an interest-rate increase. Futures markets price in at least one rate increase this year, with high odds rates will stay elevated into 2027. Rate hikes "appear even more out of step with economic reality after this morning's data," Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark write. They expect the Fed's next move to be a cut. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1110 ET - Weakness in bitcoin continues, with the cryptocurrency dipping to as low as $58,300 earlier today before rebounding back towards $60,000. It's currently down 2% at $59,687, according to LSEG data. On Wednesday, net outflows from bitcoin ETFs surged to $469 million from $113.8 million the day prior, according to data from CoinGlass. The crypto analytics platform also says $660.5 million of liquidations occurred in the past 24 hours, with roughly $541 million of that being in long positions. Ethereum is down 2.6% to $1,569, and XRP is off 3.5% to $1.03. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2026 16:28 ET (20:28 GMT)
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