DUBAI -- The U.S.-Iran deal to free up shipping in the Strait of Hormuz promises a quick cash injection for the Tehran regime. For ordinary Iranians, economic relief is likely to take much longer.
A Trump administration waiver last week to let Iran sell its oil and receive dollar payments gives the government a path to earning billions of dollars in badly needed foreign currency following the war and years of crushing sanctions.
Iran's oil exports have already begun to rise despite tit-for-tat strikes in recent days, tanker trackers say. Analysts estimate that Iran could gain as much as $10 billion in the next two months from the oil sales alone. Another positive sign for Iran is that U.S. and other officials have said the two sides have agreed to end the latest round of fighting and resume talks.
But taming galloping inflation, reviving consumer demand and creating jobs will take time. It will also depend on whether confidence in the deal will last -- and on ensuring that the money flowing back to Iran isn't diverted to its military or regional militia allies. Crucially, Iran also faces reconstruction costs estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars, far more than the initial oil boost is likely to cover.
That gap could become the deal's first domestic test for the regime: Iran's balance sheet may improve within weeks, but its battered economy will likely take months or longer to feel the effect.
This mismatch means Tehran faces continuing pressure to keep on talking with the U.S. despite the flare-ups over who should control shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. It needs deeper sanctions relief and more time for its economy to recover.
"In the short term this is a windfall, but it isn't enough to kick-start the broader economy," said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst focusing on Iran at Eurasia Group who estimates that the oil-sales waiver could be worth $8 billion to $10 billion to Iran over 60 days.
"Tremendous damage has been done to industries and to infrastructure in major cities and the government needs to create an impression that peace will last, that the bombing won't come back."
During the war, the chief executive of an auto-parts importer said he laid off workers, sold down inventory to pay debts and cut costs aggressively to stay afloat. While the interim deal has brought a measure of calm, volatility is still a problem. He is now waiting for a final agreement to be able to plan with any certainty.
"Planning is nearly impossible," he said. "We're forced to take risks."
The war has taken a significant toll on an economy already buckling under runaway inflation -- which hit 88.6% year-on-year in June -- a weakened currency and years of compounding international isolation.
Since the conflict, more than a million Iranians have been left without work and the currency has fallen to record lows. A monthslong internet blackout has severely disrupted online commerce, further isolating the youth demographic.
Iranian officials put conflict-related losses at about $270 billion, while the United Nations has reported widespread destruction, with damage to around 150,000 civilian buildings, including 51,000 homes in Tehran.
Iran also faces the Gulf's broadest damage to its energy sector, with consulting firm Rystad Energy estimating repairs could cost as much as $19 billion after strikes hit gas-processing plants, refineries, petrochemical hubs and export infrastructure.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts Iran's gross domestic product will shrink 6.1% this year, which would be its steepest contraction since the 1980s. Inflation is projected to average nearly 70% this year.
So far, there is little evidence that the deal to end the fighting has begun to ease these longer-term problems.
Last week, the price of bread in Tehran jumped, with barbari, an oval-shaped Persian flatbread, and lavash bread, often baked in a traditional clay oven, nearly doubling in cost.
A 26-year-old woman laid off from her marketing job during the conflict says she has cut much of her spending, and even if a deal with the U.S. holds for now, she has little confidence in it. "For now I can't really make any plans for the future," she said.
This skepticism has roots in the aftermath of the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated under President Barack Obama.
The sanctions relief provided under that deal helped Iran raise oil exports and reconnect parts of its economy to global trade. But the gains were brief and uneven, with unemployment remaining high and many households seeing little durable improvement in wages, jobs or purchasing power. President Trump then withdrew the U.S. from the deal in his first term and reimposed sanctions.
Some Iranians now fear a repeat, with any relief too short-lived to improve daily life. Worse, some believe that new oil revenue will first shore up the regime and its allies, leaving households with little to show for it.
A self-employed technician in Isfahan province said he expects the deal to have little effect on ordinary people's lives, and that the government will just channel any new cash flows to itself.
"We fear the ceasefire, an agreement and the survival of the regime more than we fear war itself," he said.
Write to Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 29, 2026 11:30 ET (15:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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