For Shake Shack, even a small World Cup sales boost could help the company score.
Investors have already lowered their expectations after management cut guidance earlier this year, so any sign that sales are better than feared could rebuild confidence and support the stock, D.A. Davidson analysts Matt Curtis and Andrew Tompkins wrote in a Monday note.
The soccer tournament has boosted restaurants and bars close to stadiums where matches are played. Those within five miles of Seattle's Lumen Field saw transaction volume rise 56% on June 19, when the U.S. played Australia, according to data from restaurant technology company Toast.
Shake Shack could benefit since more than 35% of its U.S. company-owned restaurants are within 30 miles of World Cup venues. The analysts expect the tournament to boost the burger chain's second-quarter same-store sales by 0.2 to 0.7 percentage point.
That is not a huge gain, but it could lift the stock, said the analysts. They reiterated a Buy rating for the stock, and a $70 price target. Shares have fallen almost 4% to $54.76 in Monday's trading.
The stock took a sharp dive on May 7 and stayed low, after the company posted first-quarter earnings that came below Wall Street expectations. Although total revenue increased by 14.3% year over year during the quarter, the company posted a net loss of $0.3 million.
The quarterly loss was due to higher spending on marketing, technology, and staffing, as well as higher pre-opening costs because the company opened a record number of new restaurants in the quarter, according to management.
At the beginning of June, management cut its outlook for second quarter's same-store sales to an estimated growth of 2.5% to 3.0%, down from a prior range of 3% to 5%, citing rising economic uncertainty and increasing competition. Management expects total revenue to come between $415 million and $420 million for the quarter.
Curtis and Tompkins expect both same-store sales growth and total revenue growth to come at the higher end of management guidance.
The analysts said they are "incrementally more confident" in Shake Shack's ability to attain its financial targets under the new CFO Michelle Hook, and that the stock will likely begin to "emerge from the investor penalty box" at the next earnings release in late July or early August.
Write to Evie Liu at evie.liu@barrons.com
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June 29, 2026 15:58 ET (19:58 GMT)
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