Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting June 29:
U.S. jobs data will mark the highlight of the week to see whether it confirms recent data suggesting a robust economy as investors gauge whether and when the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates.
In Europe, provisional inflation data for June and the European Central Bank's annual forum on central banking will be closely monitored for clues on monetary policy.
In Asia, a fresh round of manufacturing data across the region, including China, is expected to provide insight on business activity and demand.
U.S.
The recent announcement by the Federal Reserve signaled an increased prospect that interest rates could rise this year. Nine of 19 officials projected at least one rate increase by year's end, up from none in March. New Chairman Kevin Warsh also emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability and bringing inflation back to the 2% target.
This had prompted markets to bring forward expectations for an interest-rate rise as soon as September, although these odds were scaled back after Thursday's PCE inflation data were broadly in line with expectations and as oil prices fell.
In that light, the latest nonfarm payrolls data for June--which will be released on Thursday due to Friday's U.S. Independence Day holiday--could take on particular importance.
Robust data would add to recent evidence of a strengthening economy and increase prospects of a near-term rate increase. Weak data on the other hand could encourage investors to push back the expected timing of any rate hike.
Ultimately, the performance of U.S. data will drive Fed policy with Thursday's labor market report being key, Investec Economics analysts said in a note.
"Data at the start of the year had indicated a weakening in labor conditions, but the most recent figures have pointed to a stabilization," they said. "Indeed, we expect to see further evidence in this direction this month, forecasting jobs growth of 160,000, not materially different from May's 172,000 reading."
Ahead of the nonfarm payrolls figures, other clues on the health of the jobs market will come from JOLTS job openings data for May on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls figures for June on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
Other data due during the week include the June Conference Board consumer confidence survey and the April Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday, followed by the ISM report on manufacturing for June Wednesday and May factory orders on Thursday.
Canada
Canada's gross domestic product data for April will be released on Tuesday, with advanced estimates indicating that real GDP increased 0.4%.
Canada's real GDP fell by 0.1% in March compared to the previous month following 0.2% growth in February. The pullback in March was led by a 2.1% month-on-month decline for natural resources that shaved 0.1 percentage points from the headline print, TD Securities strategists said in a note.
"The drag from natural resources should prove temporary, with stronger activity in April helping to underpin new flash estimates."
Eurozone
The European Central Bank's annual forum on central banking will take place in Sintra, Portugal, from June 29 to July 1. The conference will focus on shaping Europe's future on innovation, growth and stability.
"How Middle Eastern developments impact the monetary policy conjuncture is a clear focus for markets," Investec analysts said in a note. "We suspect that central banks will maintain a degree of caution for the moment given the uncertainty over pass-through effects from the initial shock in energy prices," they said. The Sintra conference may provide some insight given the attendance of the heads of the world's major central banks including ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey and Fed Chairman Warsh, the analysts added.
The ECB's somewhat hawkish press conference earlier this month, at which it raised interest rates by 25 basis points, left the scope open for another hike of the same size if inflation risks make it necessary. In this context, in particular flash estimate June eurozone inflation data on Wednesday will be watched.
"Flash estimate of June eurozone HICP likely moderated as energy prices declined, after the U.S.-Iran deal announcement, but higher food prices in Germany would partially offset," HSBC analysts said in a note.
Prior to that, Spanish flash CPI on Monday, French, German and Italian provisional CPI data on Tuesday for the month will be released.
Eurozone business and consumer surveys for June are due on Monday, German retail trade for May and German unemployment data for June follow on Tuesday, while eurozone May unemployment data will be released on Thursday.
Final French, German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs for June are due on Wednesday, followed by final services PMIs on Friday.
Belgium will hold a bond auction on Monday, Germany on Wednesday will tap the November 2032 Bund, while Spanish and French auctions are due on Thursday.
U.K.
Following the recent resignation of Keir Starmer from the U.K. prime minister role, Andy Burnham looks likely to replace him considering that no candidate has emerged to challenge Burnham for the leadership position. Media reports say that Burnham will give a speech on fiscal policies next week. Investors will watch out for any comments from him on his plans for government spending and revenue generation.
The Bank of England mortgage lending and consumer credit data for May is due to be released on Monday. Investors will be keen to find out whether the rise in mortgage rates has had a negative effect on the number of mortgage approvals.
The second estimate for the first quarter U.K. GDP data, 1Q business investment data, and the 1Q balance of payments data are due to be released on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the final manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index data for June is set to be released.
The final June services PMI data is due to be published on Friday, as well as the findings from the Bank of England decision maker panel survey for June.
Switzerland
Switzerland's inflation data for June will be released on Thursday. Annual inflation held steady at 0.6% in May, remaining within the Swiss National Bank's target range of 0%-2%. At its June meeting, the SNB said medium-term inflationary pressures were "virtually unchanged" compared to its last policy assessment as it left interest rates unchanged at 0%.
Other Swiss data include retail sales and purchasing managers' surveys, both released on Wednesday.
Scandinavia
Sweden has foreign trade data out on Monday and retail sales data on Tuesday.
Norges Bank will publish borrowing plans for the third quarter on Monday. Sweden and Norway will hold bond auctions on Wednesday.
Japan
Investors are closely watching the Bank of Japan's Tankan corporate survey due Wednesday to gauge how much the Middle East conflict and the subsequent rise in oil prices have affected corporate sentiment. The diffusion index measuring sentiment among large manufacturers is expected to edge down to plus 16 from plus 17 in the March survey, according to a Quick poll of economists.
The government is scheduled to release a slew of economic indicators for May, with retail sales data due Monday and industrial production and unemployment data due Tuesday. June auto sales results are also due Wednesday.
The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction about 2.8 trillion yen of two-year sovereign notes on Tuesday and around 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year government bonds on Thursday. Market participants may closely watch the outcome of the 10-year JGB auction amid lingering concerns over Japan's fiscal situation.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently announced a plan targeting 370 trillion yen in combined public and private investment through the fiscal year ending March 2041. The plan has drawn mixed reactions from economists, raising questions about its ability to drive growth while maintaining fiscal discipline.
China
Markets are closely watching China's June purchasing managers' indexes, due Tuesday, for a clearer picture of business sentiment following the interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran and May's mixed economic data, which reinforced the narrative of resilient exports and weak domestic demand.
ANZ Research economists expect the official manufacturing PMI to edge up to 50.1 from 50.0 in May, supported by two additional working days this month. In contrast, the nonmanufacturing PMI is projected to slip to 50.0 from 50.1, as heavier-than-usual rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta and southern China might have disrupted construction and outdoor services. Revenue per tourist during the Dragon Boat Festival also came in slightly below last year's level, suggesting consumers remain cautious about spending. "This supports our view of a marginal softening in services momentum," ANZ said.
The RatingDog PMI surveys, which focus more on China's smaller private-sector companies, will also be released. The unofficial manufacturing PMI is due Wednesday, followed by the services PMI on Friday.
Investors will watch the private surveys for signs that smaller businesses are benefiting from lower energy prices and easing supply-chain disruptions as the Middle East ceasefire takes hold. Companies will be monitoring external orders, employment trends and input-cost growth as they assess the business outlook.
Australia
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its June meeting, at which it left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% after three consecutive rate increases. Markets will look for further insight into policymakers' thinking on whether additional tightening may be needed.
Economists remain divided over whether more rate hikes are likely, particularly as easing Middle East tensions have helped push energy prices lower.
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June 28, 2026 20:00 ET (00:00 GMT)
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